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FBI statistics are based on arrests for the previous year and not clearances or convictions. Just because people are arrested doesn't mean that they committed a crime....
I think its great that the FBI compiles all this data for perusal by the public but most of you have no idea about what it represents and use it to further your own personal views instead of taking it for what it is - arrest data - not "crime" data. Also all PDs do not supply all their data to the FBI and there are errors that will be corrected in the future.
On crime rates rising one year over the previous year (again this is arrest data, not "crime" rates) it is not that big of a deal. Criminal investigators, consultants, and statisticians look for trends across multiple years and not one year versus the next year.
There was an uptick in violent crime in 2004 - 2005 as well but it didn't persist. Two points don't make a trend. But the point is lives, not trends. Everyone of those points is a compilation of human deaths.
Whatever happened in 2015 and 2016, and I believe it was changes in policing imposed because of Ferguson and the accompanying encouragement to violence by people like BLM, it has to be reversed. We knew a long time ago what works against crime. Arresting and jailing worked. And not arresting and not jailing didn't work. The people agitating against these practices are seldom the ones who pay the price when they succeed. Those lives represented in those data points are the legacy of the agitators' success.
I agree in regards to 2004-2005. But in regards to your second paragraph, what would you blame that previous uptick on....
I believe too many people try to make claims an conflate political occurrences with crime when crime is not political. I'll note that I've seen people on social media blame the uptick on Trump. Everyone wants to blame their bogey-man IMO.
To me, this is not a trend, as you stated. Crime is much lower today than in previous decades. Also your point on "arresting and jailing" it should be noted that this data is "arrest data" so evidently more people were arrested. I also don't see or hear people against arresting and jailing criminals, only against arresting and jailing people who aren't criminals.
Will end with I do find it interesting, as I alluded to before that different people will skew these statistics to fit their particular narrative. I've shared I know a lot of black politically involved people. Those people - some blame this on Trump, as stated. They also are very aware that this is "arrest data" and they use it to prove that blacks are discriminated against by law enforcement due to them being arrested more often. So it depends on what narrative one wants to push with this data how they view it.
There was an uptick in violent crime in 2004 - 2005 as well but it didn't persist. Two points don't make a trend. But the point is lives, not trends. Everyone of those points is a compilation of human deaths.
Whatever happened in 2015 and 2016, and I believe it was changes in policing imposed because of Ferguson and the accompanying encouragement to violence by people like BLM, it has to be reversed. We knew a long time ago what works against crime. Arresting and jailing worked. And not arresting and not jailing didn't work. The people agitating against these practices are seldom the ones who pay the price when they succeed. Those lives represented in those data points are the legacy of the agitators' success.
Does not compute. Las Vegas had a sharp increase in murder rate but Blacks had little involvement. You might note that LV was cited as an example in the FBI release. But the data does not support a Black increase. And no significant change in LV policing occurred.
I agree in regards to 2004-2005. But in regards to your second paragraph, what would you blame that previous uptick on....
I believe too many people try to make claims an conflate political occurrences with crime when crime is not political. I'll note that I've seen people on social media blame the uptick on Trump. Everyone wants to blame their bogey-man IMO.
To me, this is not a trend, as you stated. Crime is much lower today than in previous decades. Also your point on "arresting and jailing" it should be noted that this data is "arrest data" so evidently more people were arrested. I also don't see or hear people against arresting and jailing criminals, only against arresting and jailing people who aren't criminals.
Will end with I do find it interesting, as I alluded to before that different people will skew these statistics to fit their particular narrative. I've shared I know a lot of black politically involved people. Those people - some blame this on Trump, as stated. They also are very aware that this is "arrest data" and they use it to prove that blacks are discriminated against by law enforcement due to them being arrested more often. So it depends on what narrative one wants to push with this data how they view it.
Arrest data and crime data have to more the same way. Although, because of the Ferguson effect, it could be that crime has actually increased more that arrests (murder excepted).
What caused 2004 - 2005 I don't know. It could be random, it could be Katrina, etc. But this time BLM's constant advocating for violence, riot, killing police can't be overlooked. It is individual members that people easily influenced who to do this, the crime. But the distinction between the organization, it members and its sympathizers is an evasion.
Arrest data and crime data have to more the same way. Although, because of the Ferguson effect, it could be that crime has actually increased more that arrests (murder excepted).
What caused 2004 - 2005 I don't know. It could be random, it could be Katrina, etc. But this time BLM's constant advocating for violence, riot, killing police can't be overlooked. It is individual members that people easily influenced who to do this, the crime. But the distinction between the organization, it members and its sympathizers is an evasion.
Still does not compute. Again Las Vegas was featured, did have a big rise in murder rate though not in violent crime, and has no significant racial slant in its murder increase. So one of the featured places does not support any "Ferguson effect".
Arrest data and crime data have to more the same way. Although, because of the Ferguson effect, it could be that crime has actually increased more that arrests (murder excepted).
What caused 2004 - 2005 I don't know. It could be random, it could be Katrina, etc. But this time BLM's constant advocating for violence, riot, killing police can't be overlooked. It is individual members that people easily influenced who to do this, the crime. But the distinction between the organization, it members and its sympathizers is an evasion.
BLM does not advocate violence except to people who have a skewed view of them. I'd challenge you to provide 10 instances of violence "caused" by BLM advocating violence in 2016. I doubt you can.
I know people involved with an organization that marches with a BLM hashtag. They are never violent nor do they speak about violence. Ferguson happened 2-3 years ago. The media news stories have moved on. BLM people have also moved on to other things. I think you may be stuck in the past on this.
In regards to arrest and crime data either moving or being akin to each other - that is not necessarily true. I remember years ago when I first joined this forum having a similar discussion about the 2009-2010 FBI data. A good friend of mine was arrested for homicide/murder in 2009. There was a shooting inside of a nightclub and someone was killed. Police arrested 15 people in association with that murder. All but one were eventually cleared (including my friend, who lost his job BTW due to being held for 3 months in a county jail and then having to pay to get the arrest expunged off his record - no one wants to hire someone who was "arrested" for murder because like many of the people on this forum, people assume guilt of anyone arrested). So 14 of them were not murderers. If you took just the arrest data, you'd think 15 people murdered someone, when that was not the case at all. So arrests and crime data do not always mirror each other.
That is what many of the black activists who use this data to show racial discrimination in policing cite when they speak or write about this subject. You all see arrests as "crime" when getting arrested does not entail that you actually committed a crime. Also many criminals are never arrested - say a cold case murder. The murder will be logged but no one may ever be arrested for committing that murder and so it would not show up on these statistics.
Still does not compute. Again Las Vegas was featured, did have a big rise in murder rate though not in violent crime, and has no significant racial slant in its murder increase. So one of the featured places does not support any "Ferguson effect".
"Nearly 900 additional blacks were killed in 2016 compared with 2015, bringing the black homicide victim total to 7,881. Those 7,881 “black bodies,” in the parlance of Ta-Nehisi Coates, are 1,305 more than the number of white victims (which in this case includes most Hispanics) for the same period, though blacks are only 13 percent of the nation’s population.
The increase in black homicides last year comes on top of a previous 900-victim increase between 2014 and 2015..."
That's from the New York Post.
If you figure it out, those increases are way more than the 8.1% national average. (It's predominantly blacks killing other blacks.) There're plenty of room for Las Vegas to get in there without changing the fact that the increase is driven by rapidly worsening crime in black communities.
BLM's prominence also came to the fore in 2015 right after Ferguson and it made its present felt in just about every case where an African American was shot by a policeman. BLM is not known for its calming rhetoric or efforts to discourage violence. On the contrary. It is all to eager to get the blood boiling and incite the riots we saw in those places.
It's macabre to say let's see what 2017 brings and I hope my fears are wrong about a trend or even a permanent rise in the number of murders. My view is that different responses to the Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown deaths would have avoided this entirely.
"Nearly 900 additional blacks were killed in 2016 compared with 2015, bringing the black homicide victim total to 7,881. Those 7,881 “black bodies,” in the parlance of Ta-Nehisi Coates, are 1,305 more than the number of white victims (which in this case includes most Hispanics) for the same period, though blacks are only 13 percent of the nation’s population.
The increase in black homicides last year comes on top of a previous 900-victim increase between 2014 and 2015..."
That's from the New York Post.
If you figure it out, those increases are way more than the 8.1% national average. (It's predominantly blacks killing other blacks.) There're plenty of room for Las Vegas to get in there without changing the fact that the increase is driven by rapidly worsening crime in black communities.
BLM's prominence also came to the fore in 2015 right after Ferguson and it made its present felt in just about every case where an African American was shot by a policeman. BLM is not known for its calming rhetoric or efforts to discourage violence. On the contrary. It is all to eager to get the blood boiling and incite the riots we saw in those places.
It's macabre to say let's see what 2017 brings and I hope my fears are wrong about a trend or even a permanent rise in the number of murders. My view is that different responses to the Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown deaths would have avoided this entirely.
Still does not compute. Overall murder is up about 10%. Blacks a little higher at 13% that still leaves a large increase in non Black homicides. If you attempt to correct for the fact a Black is much more likely to be arrested than a non Black it becomes likely that the statistics are not different at any significant level. So no you have no real case that the Ferguson effect even exists.
"Nearly 900 additional blacks were killed in 2016 compared with 2015, bringing the black homicide victim total to 7,881. Those 7,881 “black bodies,” in the parlance of Ta-Nehisi Coates, are 1,305 more than the number of white victims (which in this case includes most Hispanics) for the same period, though blacks are only 13 percent of the nation’s population.
The increase in black homicides last year comes on top of a previous 900-victim increase between 2014 and 2015..."
That's from the New York Post.
If you figure it out, those increases are way more than the 8.1% national average. (It's predominantly blacks killing other blacks.) There're plenty of room for Las Vegas to get in there without changing the fact that the increase is driven by rapidly worsening crime in black communities.
BLM's prominence also came to the fore in 2015 right after Ferguson and it made its present felt in just about every case where an African American was shot by a policeman. BLM is not known for its calming rhetoric or efforts to discourage violence. On the contrary. It is all to eager to get the blood boiling and incite the riots we saw in those places.
It's macabre to say let's see what 2017 brings and I hope my fears are wrong about a trend or even a permanent rise in the number of murders. My view is that different responses to the Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown deaths would have avoided this entirely.
The White Homicide rate is not mostly Hispanics. Only about a third of people who identify as white who are killed are Hispanic. He remaining 66% are white people. Don’t make up statistics you can’t back up, as I love to study statistics and will call you out on your B.S.
Crime in California has continued to rise as Gov. Jerry Brown is forced by the Feds to get rid of prison overcrowding. Many crimes have been reclassified from felonies to misdemeanors which means the criminals can keep offending. Car break-ins and burglaries are really high everywhere. As long as a thief steals less than $950 worth of goods, it's not really a crime by the state's definition.
Having millions of illegals doesn't help. I think they should be deported to serve their time in Mexico instead of making US taxpayers house them in overcrowded prisons.
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