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I'm going to post this link again.
Look at the list and first on it is : Policy mistake by the Federal Reserve. Most everything on the list has been known for sometime.
On Oct 3rd things were made clear where the Fed was going. Higher rates. Then what happens in Oct. ? The market sells off b/c the economy is no longer weak as stated by the Fed Chair.
Those who talk about the strength of Obama's economy have to deny the Fed Chairman Powell knows what he's talking about. If so how can he be right to raise interest rates ?
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank has a ways to go yet before it gets interest rates to where they are neither restrictive nor accommodative.
"The really extremely accommodative low interest rates that we needed when the economy was quite weak, we don't need those anymore. They're not appropriate anymore," Powell said.
(The Fed has a two pronged mandate and it doesn't include propping up the stock market forever.)
Its been know for years now that the Fed would be raising interest rates. The only question is how fast. If they go too slow then the risk is inflation. If they go too fast then it could impact growth. Rates are still in accommodative range, as is the QE balance sheet.
Yes coming out of the recession the Fed was extremely accommodative. That started to change as far back as 2014.
So once again the opportunity to cheery pick the best of 8 years is comparable to the less than two years of this admin. The argument just can't get any weaker than that.
Cherry picking? I'm using the entire time Trump has been in office. In fact I'm giving him credit from before he was even in office.
Sorry if I didn't drink the Kool-Aid to believe that the markets would consistently increase at plus 30% rates. I highly suspect over time the market return rates will delivery closer to the norm. There are governmental polices that could result in below normal rates of return; one of which is trade wars.
Its been know for years now that the Fed would be raising interest rates. The only question is how fast. If they go too slow then the risk is inflation. If they go too fast then it could impact growth. Rates are still in accommodative range, as is the QE balance sheet.
Yes coming out of the recession the Fed was extremely accommodative. That started to change as far back as 2014.
According to my link the rate was .25 until the first raise of .25 in 2015, making the rate throughout 2015 at .50.
Another raise of .25 for all of 2016 making the rate .75 going into 2017 where the rate increased 3 times to 1.5 and then again in 2018 3 raises with promise of another in Dec. that is yet to materialize.
What did they do in 2014 that leads you to think 2014 is a landmark of change ?
The president usually can not move market higher because of how free economy works. Howerver, the President clearly can destruct an economy through policies such as tariff and trade wars.
So yes, Trump is to blame for the end of Obama’s bull market run, and higher inflation and higher interest rates.
Big picture: Looking through the hurricane, new jobless claims have been under 220,000 since early July, a remarkable stretch last duplicated almost a half-century ago. There is no reason for layoffs to increase anytime soon. The Beige Book survey released Wednesday showed strong demand for labor across the country. This will keep the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates.
What are they saying?: “In spite of the weather-induced volatility, the overall message of the report remains one of low rates of job separation and, in turn, healthy labor market conditions,” said Blerina Uruci, economist at Barclays.
Big picture: Looking through the hurricane, new jobless claims have been under 220,000 since early July, a remarkable stretch last duplicated almost a half-century ago. There is no reason for layoffs to increase anytime soon. The Beige Book survey released Wednesday showed strong demand for labor across the country. This will keep the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates.
What are they saying?: “In spite of the weather-induced volatility, the overall message of the report remains one of low rates of job separation and, in turn, healthy labor market conditions,” said Blerina Uruci, economist at Barclays.
I never disagreed with any of that. I was referring to you constantly changing your story.
I've also said MANY TIMES that the economy remains strong.
The problem is a lot of what Trump is doing is just plain stupid and that much of the pain regarding the economy and the stock market is self-inflicted and worrisome.
Trump is a moron. He's lucky to have inherited a strong economy from Obama, otherwise things would be REALLY bad.
According to my link the rate was .25 until the first raise of .25 in 2015, making the rate throughout 2015 at .50.
Another raise of .25 for all of 2016 making the rate .75 going into 2017 where the rate increased 3 times to 1.5 and then again in 2018 3 raises with promise of another in Dec. that is yet to materialize.
What did they do in 2014 that leads you to think 2014 is a landmark of change ?
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.
The ending and tapering of QE as well as raising interest rates are both moves by the FED to be less accommodative.
Big picture: Looking through the hurricane, new jobless claims have been under 220,000 since early July, a remarkable stretch last duplicated almost a half-century ago. There is no reason for layoffs to increase anytime soon. The Beige Book survey released Wednesday showed strong demand for labor across the country. This will keep the Federal Reserve raising short-term interest rates.
What are they saying?: “In spite of the weather-induced volatility, the overall message of the report remains one of low rates of job separation and, in turn, healthy labor market conditions,” said Blerina Uruci, economist at Barclays.
I assume you know that the initial jobless claims have been declining for a long time and have been hitting forty year lows for a while.
Here is an article from April 2016. https://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/28/us-w...-estimate.html
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits bounced back from a 42-1/2-year low last week, but the underlying trend remained consistent with tightening labor market conditions.
...
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 260,000 in the latest week. Jobless claims have now been below 300,000, a threshold associated with healthy labor market conditions, for 60 weeks, the longest stretch since 1973.
Yes the trend in a tight labor market has continued. This didn't start with Trump or his policies.
The Committee judges that there has been a substantial improvement in the outlook for the labor market since the inception of its current asset purchase program. Moreover, the Committee continues to see sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing progress toward maximum employment in a context of price stability. Accordingly, the Committee decided to conclude its asset purchase program this month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions. To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation.
The ending and tapering of QE as well as raising interest rates are both moves by the FED to be less accommodative.
So it did nothing but " reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range " as stated in your post !!!
Great find. WHAT A LANDMARK DICISION !!!
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