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Old 01-11-2018, 10:00 AM
 
Location: East Coast of the United States
17,074 posts, read 19,420,928 times
Reputation: 12809

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Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Does anyone get nervous when the market is closed on three or four day holidays ?

Things can change in an instant sending the market up or down.

It can be days before an investor can respond to new conditions.
No, we are in a runaway bull market. Stay in with the new record highs every week.

Also, keep your palms together and pray for the best.
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:06 AM
 
26,198 posts, read 8,923,108 times
Reputation: 9120
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ponderosa View Post
The Q poll of yesterday shows that most Americans agree that the economy is doing well but far more credit Obama for it than Trump. Fancy that.
Factor in the 26% who say their personal financial situation are "not so good" or "poor" and factor in the % that wouldn't give Trump credit for anything.

That's why I'm not a big believer in polls whether they be good or bad.

Polls are another piece of information and not the whole story.

Last edited by phma; 01-11-2018 at 10:14 AM..
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Alaska
6,342 posts, read 4,357,127 times
Reputation: 3765
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rambler123 View Post
Lol.

Seriously, can we just stop now? We've got people praising Trump for everything from "being the true spirit of Christmas" to "preventing planes from falling out of the sky." The cult-like mindset is no longer funny.

The Dow has been on a strong, steady rise since about late 2009 to 2010. You know, when Obama was in office. Righties refuse to give Obama any credit for any of that, but now have the absurd and hypocritical nerve to somehow try to give credit to Trump for doing basically nothing for 1 out of 7+ years of recovery.

Bull market in stocks is 103 months old. Trump owns 11 of them - Oct. 11, 2017

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johndor.../#6e7a3d336644

Left AND right sources (CNN and Forbes) agree that this type of boot-licking and fact warping is absurd. Either Obama is one of the greatest president we ever had (based on stock market performance) and Trump is "pretty good, too." Or, the recovery under Obama "never happened" - which is a right-wing lie - and Trump can't be credited for it, either... because it never happened.

This laughably partisan and fact-free picking and choosing of reality is exactly why the far-right has lost all credibility.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economi...cks-1515682893

Obama had nothing to do with the economy we are currently in. Anyone who believes otherwise is not to bright.
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:15 AM
 
12,229 posts, read 3,151,985 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
What about China ? Don't they get some credit ? People say Trump can't be responsible good or bad on the market but China can apparently. Maybe they haven't been informed the way people are here.

Markets were buzzing, after Bloomberg reported a review of foreign exchange holdings left officials in China recommending the country slow or stop its purchase of U.S. debt. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose to 10-month highs, the dollar tumbled and the yen soared, driving busy action across global markets.

https://www.investors.com/category/m...-market-today/
Now we're talking! And even a reference source too! Can I take credit for changing your focus to facts instead of the same old "I don't pretend to know" attitude?

Yes of course China can take "some credit," but only so much compared to all else going on in these markets, and thinking about how this one -- temporary -- influence in the overall global economy is only part of a wide range of domestic and global issues and influences for all countries with significant economies, it gets easier to understand what credit Trump DOES NOT get in the grand scheme of things.

Otherwise known as "seeing the forest for the trees" and/or "looking at the big picture."

Better understand why we enjoy our economic ups and downs helps to keep us from concluding and actually acting AGAINST our own best interests, especially when it comes to our longer-term future.

A day or quarter's gains (or losses), even just one year's, do not begin to explain all going on that leads to those gains (or losses), and what happens longer term cannot be predicted by short-term ups and downs.
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:17 AM
 
12,229 posts, read 3,151,985 times
Reputation: 1516
NEW YORK, Jan 11 - Treasury yields fell early Thursday
morning after China disputed a report that its government
officials had recommended the country slow or halt its purchases
of the U.S. bonds.
China is diversifying its foreign exchange reserves in order
to safeguard their value, the country's currency regulator said
on Thursday, while dismissing a media report about its purchases
of U.S. debt.
Hawkish European Central Bank (ECB) minutes helped bring
yields off their lows. The ECB said it should revisit its policy
message in early 2018 and gradually adjust its language to
reflect improved growth prospects, the minutes showed.

Investors are next focused on Friday's Consumer Price Index.
"Inflation is the lynchpin for the global outlook this year,"
said Goldberg.
With inflation still well below the Federal Reserve's
2-percent target, investors are watching for any sign of a pick
up.
The market will also be watching for remarks about inflation
in a speech by William Dudley, president of the New York Fed, at
3:30 p.m. ET (2030 GMT).
At 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT), 10-year yields were
2.559 percent, down from the high of 2.597 percent hit
Wednesday, the highest level since March 15.

January 11 Thursday 9:34AM New York / 1434 GMT
Price
US T BONDS MAR8 149-27/32 -0-7/32
10YR TNotes MAR8 122-244/256 -0-12/25
6
Price Current Net
Yield % Change
(bps)
Three-month bills 1.4025 1.427 0.003
Six-month bills 1.55 1.5839 0.000
Two-year note 99-206/256 1.9766 0.005
Three-year note 99-190/256 2.0892 0.000
Five-year note 99-12/256 2.3292 0.002
Seven-year note 98-144/256 2.4758 0.006
10-year note 97-84/256 2.5587 0.010
30-year bond 96-248/256 2.9024 0.011

https://uk.reuters.com/article/usa-b...-idUKL1N1P60WR
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:18 AM
 
26,198 posts, read 8,923,108 times
Reputation: 9120
Personally I would like to see a decent correction in the market.

The left will get whiplash so quickly claiming its all on Trump.

It will be his market then.

Corrections are a healthy part of a market and often a buying opportunity.
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:25 AM
 
12,229 posts, read 3,151,985 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by phma View Post
Are people responding to the gains in the stock market and the rise in value of their retirement accounts ?

A total of 66 percent of American voters say the nation's economy is "excellent" or "good," up from 63 percent December 19 and the highest positive rating for the economy since the Quinnipiac University Poll first asked this question in 2001. Another 33 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor."

A total of 73 percent of voters say their personal financial situation is "excellent" or "good," while 26 percent say "not so good" or "poor."

I'm not a big believer in polls but many people are.

They do seem misleading at times, as we have seen.
Ah shucks. No reference site included this time...

Depending on where you look for what you want to find, avoiding bias and trying to be objective, you will no doubt find that you shouldn't trust everything you read, or all the polls of course. You've got to factor in a whole lot of different data, from different sources to get at the truth. I call it "triangulating for the truth."

For example, how do reconcile your numbers with Trump's exceptionally low approval ratings, for any POTUS in their first year?

Here too is part of "the rest of the story" (with reference source)...

If you play the stock market, then you're far more likely to approve of what President Donald Trump has done to the economy.

That's according to a survey conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling, which recently collected the opinions of 862 registered voters. The survey found that 41% of participants who owned stocks thought their personal economic situation had improved this year, while only 15% said it had gotten worse.

That's a far more optimistic reading than the one put forth from respondents who don't own stocks. Just 24% of those in the group said their economic situation had improved, according to PPP. Twenty-nine percent said their personal circumstances had worsened.

The disparity in the survey results shows just how big of an impact the stock market's torrid postelection rally has had on the psyche of Americans fortunate enough to ride the wave. The S&P 500 has surged 25% since Trump's victory in November 2016, creating $5.6 trillion in corporate market cap — blockbuster numbers by any measure.

And while the biggest direct impact of Trump's proposed policies on individuals will come under the new tax plan, people with a stake in the market have been able to enjoy a lucrative ride to record highs in the meantime. At the same time, those without positions have waited patiently for tax reform that may or may not improve their economic situation.

It's important to note that despite Trump's attempts to take credit, the stock market hasn't necessarily risen to new highs because of anything specific he's done. US corporations are enjoying a prolonged stretch of impressive earnings growth, which has historically been the biggest driver of stock gains. The Federal Reserve's continued monetary accommodation has also emboldened companies and investors alike.

Stock market affects on how Americans view Donald Trump's economy - Business Insider
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:30 AM
 
12,229 posts, read 3,151,985 times
Reputation: 1516
Quote:
Originally Posted by Freak80 View Post
In my experience, constantly responding to new conditions is a great way to lose money.
Yes. Anyone who "plays the market" on a short-term basis really shouldn't be in the market in the first place...

Most anyone who can today argue their 401K has improved for them is generally referring to long-term gains on investments/savings made through their employer over a long period of time. Large fund managers (who typically manage those funds in most 401K portfolios) certainly don't make their investment decisions based on who just got elected or any short-term ups and downs.
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:38 AM
 
26,198 posts, read 8,923,108 times
Reputation: 9120
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Ah shucks. No reference site included this time...

Depending on where you look for what you want to find, avoiding bias and trying to be objective, you will no doubt find that you shouldn't trust everything you read, or all the polls of course. You've got to factor in a whole lot of different data, from different sources to get at the truth. I call it "triangulating for the truth."

For example, how do reconcile your numbers with Trump's exceptionally low approval ratings, for any POTUS in their first year?

Here too is part of "the rest of the story" (with reference source)...

If you play the stock market, then you're far more likely to approve of what President Donald Trump has done to the economy.

That's according to a survey conducted by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling, which recently collected the opinions of 862 registered voters. The survey found that 41% of participants who owned stocks thought their personal economic situation had improved this year, while only 15% said it had gotten worse.

That's a far more optimistic reading than the one put forth from respondents who don't own stocks. Just 24% of those in the group said their economic situation had improved, according to PPP. Twenty-nine percent said their personal circumstances had worsened.

The disparity in the survey results shows just how big of an impact the stock market's torrid postelection rally has had on the psyche of Americans fortunate enough to ride the wave. The S&P 500 has surged 25% since Trump's victory in November 2016, creating $5.6 trillion in corporate market cap — blockbuster numbers by any measure.

And while the biggest direct impact of Trump's proposed policies on individuals will come under the new tax plan, people with a stake in the market have been able to enjoy a lucrative ride to record highs in the meantime. At the same time, those without positions have waited patiently for tax reform that may or may not improve their economic situation.

It's important to note that despite Trump's attempts to take credit, the stock market hasn't necessarily risen to new highs because of anything specific he's done. US corporations are enjoying a prolonged stretch of impressive earnings growth, which has historically been the biggest driver of stock gains. The Federal Reserve's continued monetary accommodation has also emboldened companies and investors alike.

Stock market affects on how Americans view Donald Trump's economy - Business Insider
That is confusing. A report on Trump's economy. How can it be ?

People are on here claiming it Obama's economy. Something doesn't add up.

I'll bet its some where in the middle like it often is.

Obama's low expectation market is enhanced and accelerating under Trump. Its all surface speculation.

Dig deeper and see Armageddon under the surface. Then shout "get out". Its not easy being an investor.

Be sure to watch what PAUL KRUGMAN says, who has been wrong on everything and if you want to win do the opposite : Trump can't take credit for the soaring stock market

Last edited by phma; 01-11-2018 at 10:50 AM..
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Old 01-11-2018, 10:39 AM
 
22,743 posts, read 12,169,353 times
Reputation: 7188
Quote:
Originally Posted by LearnMe View Post
Yes. Anyone who "plays the market" on a short-term basis really shouldn't be in the market in the first place...

Most anyone who can today argue their 401K has improved for them is generally referring to long-term gains on investments/savings made through their employer over a long period of time. Large fund managers (who typically manage those funds in most 401K portfolios) certainly don't make their investment decisions based on who just got elected or any short-term ups and downs.
Day trading is a very real and profitable venture. My son in high school had time to do all kinds of short term money making. It financed his leisure activities quite nicely and reduced the need for student loans in university.

Don't be so sure -- short term gains aren't substnatial.
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