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I live in a Rust Belt city. I also don't see a valid option for your poll.
IMO most of the issues with Rust Belt is that the weather is bad and so as the economy improved people moved to nicer climate areas (I did for that reason).
I'm black and FWIW there have always been black people in the Rust Belt since the 1700s. My family has been here since the 1820s (in Ohio or MI or IN).
In regards to economic conditions today, the city I live in is doing well economically and we have a healthy job market. They also have better wages, which is a reason I moved back here versus staying in the south. I also realized I'd rather be cold during winter than sweating to death in the summer. Summers here are great and winters aren't as long as people think (and I feel that snow is very pretty).
I also grew up in the rust belt. Yes, the winters are damn cold (still waiting for that global warming) and summers are perfect. My retirement dollar goes much further here than in other places. It's always a give and take.
I remember Clinton and NAFTA, even being young and apolitical I knew it wasn't good for the U.S. But oh well, the rich wanted to make more money, read the writing on the wall, changed course, and go with the flow.
Unions make up a much larger part of the workforce in Germany and Japan, yet they do fairly well in trade relations. We are down to 4% of the workforce in unions.
Prior to unions, US workers were at the mercy of employers, some of whom were "good", others were not.
It is not the fault of the unions, it is bad trade deals. The Unions are often a convenient scapegoat, yet union workers prosper in Germany and Japan while not appearing to hamper their anility to generate exports.
You make a good point with regards to unions, and may I add that goes for those who blame regulations. Don't you think Japan and Germany have even stricter regulations than the US?
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The same populist movements have taken hold in other industrial rust belts, in Germany's industrial Ruhr Valley, there’s little sign it once was a hub for European coal and steel production.
The lights have mostly gone out on the “City of 1,000 Fires,” which stood like few others for Germany’s economic rebirth from the ashes of World War II.
In their place, a new political movement, the Alternative for Germany, is taking root and promising to put Germans first as it seeks to become the first far-right party to enter the Bundestag since the war.
Americans seem to overlook the fact that traditional industry has died out in many industrialised cities and a lot of countries have substantial rust belts.
Newer manufacturing techniques have also led to less labour intensive manufacturing. This is not an American phenomenon.
It's how you deal with such areas and what you learn from other countries experiences that are now important.
Having spent my entire career in design and engineering, I can assure you that automation is actively taking away jobs in every aspect of product development - not just manufacturing. It takes a fraction of the personnel to design a product because engineering software innovation and computer simulation do a lot of the work now.
If I had to put a number on it, a 10X reduction in staff now compared to the pre-computer days of the 1960's, when parts were made from drawings that were laid out manually by an army of "draftsmen".
This is not only happening in the US. It is happening all over the world, and the pace is accelerating.
Another factor is that here in the USA we decided to chase short-term profits in new technologies and decided not to invest in the R&D needed to modernize primary metals and manufacturing. While we were off chasing those pretty dreams, and appeasing Wall Street, our competitors in the Far East cleaned our clock.
Funny you mention that. I to have spent my entire career in design, 29 years in fact. Started in the blueprint room and climbed the ladder. Started out in transfer tooling, then dies, now plastic injection molded interior trim components. And pretty much the only think I agree with you on is , yes we have many less people doing the design work. The only people I've seen lose jobs to software/simulation is CAE and Moldflow analysis. The rest of the people I've know that lost jobs were directly because they were offshored. Surface layout is now done in India, floor trim and door trim done in Mexico.
Being in the metro Detroit area, pretty much everyone I know is involved in the automotive/manufacturing industry. My dad had 42 years in at Chrysler (actually started before he was in Vietnam) , friends are machinists, fabricators, etc.
Not a single person I know lost their job due to automation. That being said, if all one wanted to do in life was be a press operator, or some sort of button pusher in a factory well.... I would agree with you. Like we all do we all have to adapt if we want to stay employed, if we have the opportunity to. For instance, my father started out in weld assembly , he worked spot weld gun. He saw the righting on the wall and started skilled trades classes to repair the robots that took over the weld work. Same in the paint shop. What many people would have done but in many cases the shops just closed up.
I saw many design shops that were 40 or 50 years old close there doors...not because robits took over, because the work could be done offshore much cheaper.
In "Thank You for Being Late" Thomas L. Friedman explains acceleration of change taking place today.
"His thesis: to understand the twenty-first century, you need to understand that the planet’s three largest forces— Moore’s law (technology), the Market (globalization), and Mother Nature (climate change and biodiversity loss)—are accelerating all at once. These accelerations are transforming five key realms: the workplace, politics, geopolitics, ethics, and community."
It's a fascinating look at how the pace is picking up to the point that it is difficult to even hang on to the merry-go-round of life, let alone make sense of it.
It's no wonder the unemployed coal miners are at a loss. Just about the time their relatives get AA degrees in fixing computers, no one fixes computers any more.
The transition from Agricultural era to to the Industrial Revolution took several generations.
But the pace of change has accelerated with the the Information Age and many just can't keep up. They yearn for the fifties.
Those days are long gone and unlikely ever to return.
The big problem we are starting to face is that there's a segment of our society that will never be able to support themselves, they are simply unemployable.
A German professor I had once explained that Germany could never have the public school system like the U.S. system. "We simply could not support this many unemployable citizens."
As more and more retail switches to online, people do self check-out at the remaining bricks and mortar stores, and ordering kiosks replace cashiers, ... a whole segment of jobs for the minimally educated are disappearing and unlikely ever to return..
Indeed case in point NYC. NYC was almost left for dead in the 70s and 80s - talk was can this be another Detroit? NYC today? It's the strongest it has ever been in its history.
As was Seattle.
There's no question that industrialization and trade agreements favor some economic sectors over others. But the proper response to that is not to preserve obsolescent sectors in living history villages, but to make sure that the workers involved have an adequate safety net and realistic ways to learn new skills.
As usual with these polls, the real answer is not listed.
It is the very normal movement of things - one might as well ask why Industry moved TO the Rust Belt from PA, NY, MA, NJ, etc.
Same reasons. Industry is always relocating for many many reasons. Improved transportation and communication allowed for easier relocation. Railroads....Trucks, Interstates, Containers, etc.
You'd have to stretch even further and ask whether this is a bad thing? When "blame" is used in the OP, it seems to indicated a negative result.
But New England and NY, etc. (populated areas) are much better off since most industry left. Now they specialize in computers (IBM) and Life Sciences and Finance and much more. Such is the way of the world as areas become more educated.
Also, efficiencies of production (robotics, etc.) means that less workers are needed. In the end, whether an industry moves...or downsizes by 90%...isn't that relevant. Either way the area is going to need new ways to maintain a decent economy.
A German professor I had once explained that Germany could never have the public school system like the U.S. system. "We simply could not support this many unemployable citizens."
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A better explanation of the above might help us understand.
Are they saying that their school system being free and trade-orientated is more successful at turning out the type of workers that a modern economy needs? As you may know, they have such a system and free college and grad or trade school for many who are qualified for high skill positions.
The US always fails to invest and plan...and a large segment of the population doesn't want their children educated to first world standards. Ignorance can tend to breed ignorance. Midwest Rust Belt workers spanned the gamut from extremely skilled to not at all skilled...so it's hard to discuss them all in one breath.
The unskilled assembly line worker is definitely toast...other than a lucky few who work for the Foreign Companies (Honda, etc.) here.
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