Quote:
Originally Posted by greywar
Here is the thing, If China thinks they can attack and sink 2 aircraft carriers, and call it a day they are VASTLY misgauging what the US would do in response.
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Carriers are specifically designed not to be sunk. That doesn't mean they can't be sunk, but it would require an inordinate amount of ordnance to do that.
Damaging a carrier would still cause massive casualties.
It is sufficient to merely damage the flight deck. That does two things, one it prevents the carrier from launch and recovery operations and two, it places any carrier operating in tandem at a disadvantage, because it must recover any airborne aircraft from the damaged carrier. Carriers can carry more aircraft than intended, but it crowds the flight deck and delays refueling, rearming, launch and recovery operations.
And, what exactly would the US do?
The US isn't going to get a UN Security Council Resolution, because China, and probably Russia, would veto it.
What the US can do legally would depend on the exact circumstances.
If you remember the situation where Iran held British sailors, Britain, the "Masters of the Sea" who wrote UNCLOS-I and UNCLOS-II tried to claim they were in international waters. When that claim was disproved, Britain then tried to claim the sailors were in Iraqi waters.
That claim failed, because those were Iraqi waters only under a treaty between Iraq and Iran, which Saddam Hussein abrogated in 1978, when he invaded Iran under US direction. Under international law, it is the legal right of any sovereign of any sovereign State to abrogate a treaty, and not only that, Iraqi delegates to the UN filed the proper paperwork, so that the whole World knew the treaty was void.
Failing that, the Brits tucked their tail between their legs and went home.
If the US is not in international waters, there's nothing legally the US can do.
That leaves only the US to act unilaterally, without support of international law.
Militarily, the US can do very little.
The US doesn't have the manpower to go to war with China. Even if the US called up Army and Marine Reserve units, and all of the National Guard units, it still wouldn't have the manpower. It would require a declaration of war by Congress to invoke Selective Service and draft 3 Million to 5 Million men (and perhaps women).
That would take 3-5 years, and you would also need that time to manufacture the necessary weapons, uniforms, ammunition, vehicles, equipment and supplies, plus about 1,000 amphibious assault landing craft.
Removing 3 Million to 5 Million people from the Labor Force, and ramping up manufacturing to produce war materiel is going to create a labor shortage resulting in Wage Inflation. Congress or the President are going to have to enact a Wage & Price Freeze to counter that.
And, then you will also have massive Demand-pull Inflation.
Even so, it will cost $TRILLIONS per year in addition to your current spending. Who is going to buy that debt?
Not China, and not anyone else, because they're not going to be able to absorb it, so now you have rampant Monetary Inflation wrecking your economy for a decade or more.
You can forego the disastrous amphibious assault and attack by land, but it would take 1-2 years to transport the army you trained, and all of its weapons, vehicles, equipment, ammunition, fuel and supplies to South Korea, and the costs to house those troops and store everything will be greater than the costs to build amphibious landing craft.
You'll have to attack North Korea in order to get into China.
Of course, that assumes the North Koreans are going to do absolutely nothing over that 5-7 year period.
Most likely, North Korea would invade South Korea at China's behest, and probably with China's support as well, to preclude the possibility that the US can invade China via North Korea.
That pretty much leaves the US with air strikes or retaliatory naval conflicts.
China is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan.
Unlike the Iraqis, who had no clue where US units were located until US units started firing on them, the Chinese have satellites everywhere. Their geosynchronous satellites cover all of China, the neighboring States and the seas around China.
The US can't do anything without China watching it in real-time.
And, unlike Iraq, China has an advanced and well-developed anti-aircraft defense system.
Retaliatory air-strikes may not be successful, and they'll be less successful if the US loses aircraft.
The success of retaliatory naval engagements will depend largely on the ability of the US negate the advantage of diesel submarines.
The US could freeze Chinese assets in the US, but then China could retaliate by not buying US debt, or by dumping the $1+TRILLION in US debt it holds, or by escalating the so-called trade war, which would ultimately harm the US economy.
The best option for the US is to stopping harassing the Chinese.
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