Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
...well, seeing none of us are smart enough.....what's the plan?
Yang has the plan.
Robotics aren't the enemy. They are a fact of life. The time of humans as production machines is nearly at an end. Mass production's days were always headed in this direction from the very first.
lol - the Luddites have been wrong about the evils of automation in the work place for at least 200 years.
Far, far longer ago than just 200 years.
Agriculture is the oldest human activity. It was the cause of civilization.
For most of the 20,000 years humans farmed, they used sticks and rocks to break the ground and plant the seeds. When the plow was invented, it displaced most of the people it took to break the ground.
When the steel plow was invented, it displaced the few other plowmen that were still using the old fashioned wooden plows. One plowman could not do the same work 5 others did, and those 5 did the work 50 others did before. And before that, those 50 did the work of 100.
When the tractor was invented, one plowman could now do the work of many others, all using the same steel plows. So horses weren't needed as machines to pull the plow, and horses were radical when only humans pulled the plows. The tractor not only did away with the horses, it did away with all the humans' jobs who had to care for the horses.
And now, I can go out and buy a tractor that doesn't need a plowman to operate it. That robot tractor won't tire out, and will plow as perfectly as any plowman tirelessly. The robot doesn't care if it is noon or the middle of the night. It won't need to rest.
If the robot cannot plow, it will stop and turn itself off. But if it can plow, it will until it's done, and then return home and turn itself off once the job is finished.
Every furrow that robot plows will be perfect for the plant that will grow in it. Some will be deeper than others, some may be closer together or farther apart. Whatever it is, the soil will be at its best for growing a crop. This year, next year.
The crop yield will be greater because the machine never needs to stop to check out the conditions of the soil. It will be constantly sensing what the soil is just ahead and adjusting itself to meet the conditions.
And the farmer can go do other things in life that are necessities. The robot will let him know if there's a problem.
Robotics is where the machine age was always headed from the first time a human realized putting a piece of flint on a stick was an easier, better way to break up the soil to plant a seed. It was just a matter of 20,000 years of technological advances.
Humanity's greatest power lies in our brains not our bodies. it is never easy for us to adapt to something that's radically new, but we always do. Because that's our brainpower at work.
Last edited by banjomike; 04-15-2019 at 11:47 AM..
It's not semi-literate peasants who are taking your jobs, people. It's machines, owned and operated by the billionaires you idolize. The "job creators," I think you've been trained to call them.
You're at war, Americans. You're in the middle of a full-scale class war, and most of you aren't smart enough to understand it. And you will lose, because you're not even smart enough to understand who the enemy is.
Already lost - not "will lose". We now have the first generation in 150 years that will have less prosperity and hope for the future than the generation preceding them. And the pace of the downward slide is accelerating.
What's funny is that there are still people that believe that the "free market" is going to bring all those high paying jobs that will propel the middle class into the future.
This has been a Ponzi scheme since the 70's; with wealth getting packed into the peak of the pyramid while the middle class slowly morphs into the underclass. It is baffling that people are so stupid they don't understand that automation does not benefit them in any way in the long run. In fact it is hastening their movement towards serfdom.
This time it's different. Robots will be able to fix and produce themselves. A tractor couldn't do that.
Really?
Will they operate the mines where metal comes from in its raw form to send to refineries that turn raw ore into useful metal, then to machine fabrication plants to actually craft the parts, in addition to running the supply, logistic, transportation and distribution chains required to connect all those steps?
Will they drill, refine and distribute the fuel and oil needed to keep themselves running?
Will they continue working during power outages or in the case of a natural disaster like an earthquake, flood, tornado, etc?
When circuits get interrupted or fail, will they redesign the circuit for workaround, or simply rebuild the circuit itself, and in either case, will every factory also have is own micro-precision circuit fabrication lab for stuff like that?
People that think machines will ever fix or produce themselves are retarded. People hear "AI" all the time and think of what they show in movies as actually being real. Even when Micro$oft and IBM talk their "using AI for this and that" nonsense in their commercials, they aren't using artificially intelligent anything. hell, those machines aren't "learning" anything. They've been given analytic rules and guidelines to sift through mountains of data to look for. Recursive algorithms that find patterns, and then within those patterns, find more patterns, etc. And take it from someone who works in analytics his whole life - it is easy as hell to corrupt analytic patterns.
The most advanced analytics out there do little more than mimic "first day on the job" levels of human intuition about patterns inside data. But it isn't machines thinking up stuff on their own or becoming Skynet or whatever. It's marketing idiots dumping billions and billions of rows of scraped data from social media into massive unstructured databases, and then finding word and image patterns that repeat....in order to sell stuff better.
Read "I, Pencil" an consider having a machine replicate every single human step in that chain, and factor in when things don't go according to the plan in any single moment of that entire chain. And that is to make a single pencil.
Luddites are so funny. You not only have to believe 100% that science fiction is real, you also have to ignore all of the glaring (and numerous) holes in the "science" part of that fiction.
Will they operate the mines where metal comes from in its raw form to send to refineries that turn raw ore into useful metal, then to machine fabrication plants to actually craft the parts, in addition to running the supply, logistic, transportation and distribution chains required to connect all those steps?
Will they drill, refine and distribute the fuel and oil needed to keep themselves running?
Will they continue working during power outages or in the case of a natural disaster like an earthquake, flood, tornado, etc?
When circuits get interrupted or fail, will they redesign the circuit for workaround, or simply rebuild the circuit itself, and in either case, will every factory also have is own micro-precision circuit fabrication lab for stuff like that?
People that think machines will ever fix or produce themselves are retarded. People hear "AI" all the time and think of what they show in movies as actually being real. Even when Micro$oft and IBM talk their "using AI for this and that" nonsense in their commercials, they aren't using artificially intelligent anything. hell, those machines aren't "learning" anything. They've been given analytic rules and guidelines to sift through mountains of data to look for. Recursive algorithms that find patterns, and then within those patterns, find more patterns, etc. And take it from someone who works in analytics his whole life - it is easy as hell to corrupt analytic patterns.
The most advanced analytics out there do little more than mimic "first day on the job" levels of human intuition about patterns inside data. But it isn't machines thinking up stuff on their own or becoming Skynet or whatever. It's marketing idiots dumping billions and billions of rows of scraped data from social media into massive unstructured databases, and then finding word and image patterns that repeat....in order to sell stuff better.
Read "I, Pencil" an consider having a machine replicate every single human step in that chain, and factor in when things don't go according to the plan in any single moment of that entire chain. And that is to make a single pencil.
Luddites are so funny. You not only have to believe 100% that science fiction is real, you also have to ignore all of the glaring (and numerous) holes in the "science" part of that fiction.
Sure. Robots could do all of that in time. But probably not in our lifetimes, nor in our great-grandchildren's lifetimes. (At least that's how I see it.)
Until then, though, humans doing what they do best- using their brains- will always be needed in millions. If some of those things still demand a human being a machine, they will continue. The jobs that don't demand it will vanish. Humans will adapt to the disappearance and learn to do other work.
And there will always be a few humans who do that machine's work with greater craft and skill than a machine.
There are never very many of them, but they're always present, and because they are both smart and skilled, they always find a way to survive next door to the machines.
Technology never changes everything and everywhere all at once. It always takes time for anything to become universally changed. And technological advancement always happens in fits and spurts, with many failures along the way before it becomes mature.
Around the time a technology matures, there's a new one ready to change things again. That's the way humans do things naturally.
It's not semi-literate peasants who are taking your jobs,...
But it is semi-literate peasants spewing nonsense.
I'm guessing most of you never worked with AI.
AI requires human interface, because it's pretty damn stupid. You have to tell it what to do, and how you want it done, and then you have to baby-sit it to make sure it does what you want it to do correctly.
AI doesn't replace jobs, it compliments them.
Some people claim AI will eliminate 39% of jobs in the legal field, and others claim 64%
Not one job will be lost, and in fact it will create 10s of 1,000s of jobs.
Only about 20% of household have access to legal services, while the other 80% get nothing (unless they have a tort case on contingency). Will AI give access to 100%? No, but by reducing costs, it will give access to 60% maybe even 80%.
55% of people die intestate, because they cannot afford legal services to create a Will. AI can knock that down to maybe 15%. Households just don't have good access to family law, probate, estate planning, real estate attorneys, contract law attorneys and others they really need.
AI will never replace attorneys and paralegals in the court room, or conduct negotiations, mediation or arbitration. Can't do investigations. Can't do fact-finding. Can't do due diligence. Can do limited research. Can't prepare documents. Can categorize documents, but can't do coding. So no jobs are lost.
AI is not going affect management in business, either.
If you have a new policy, how does AI know?
Do you stare at a computer for hours and hours or can you walking around the computer chanting and sprinkling it with fairy dust?
Well, you have to tell AI you have a policy change, and what the policy is and how it is to be implemented and what departments and personnel are to be affected and on and on and on.
Well, hell, if you have to do all that, you might as well do it yourself.
Automation won't have any impact, either, since it creates jobs, too.
For every human welder you replace with a robot-welder, you create 1.3 jobs.
Replace 3 humans and you get 4 jobs, for a net gain of one job.
You win.
AI and automation won't impact construction.
What, you though you just set up a computer and park a couple of robot machines and come back 72 hours later and there's house?
That's not how it works.
You have to tell AI and the machines what to do and how to do it, and then baby-sit them to make sure they do it right.
In 1968, you had a flood of computer technology in the market, and there were few people skilled or trained to use it, so it caused a massive labor shortage creating Wage Inflation and Nixon implemented a Wage & Price Freeze to stop the damage.
It took about 10 years to get your labor force up to speed, but that will never be an issue now.
That won't happen now, because AI and automation will not flood the market, rather it will trickle in over decades and decades, probably over the next 40 to 60 years.
Your labor force will be well-trained to deal with it, so you won't have labor shortages that cause Wage Inflation, and you won't have massive job losses, either.
But it is semi-literate peasants spewing nonsense.
Ironic.
Quote:
I'm guessing most of you never worked with AI.
Most probably have not, thats true. I on the other hand have. Both older AI attempts, and some newer ones.
Quote:
AI requires human interface, because it's pretty damn stupid. You have to tell it what to do, and how you want it done, and then you have to baby-sit it to make sure it does what you want it to do correctly.
Sort of. It depends on what you are doing. But its getting better by leaps and bounds. Its very much a exponential growth curve for its abilities.
Quote:
AI doesn't replace jobs, it compliments them.
Right up until it doesn't.
Quote:
Some people claim AI will eliminate 39% of jobs in the legal field, and others claim 64%
About right, although it depends on the timeframe.
Quote:
Not one job will be lost, and in fact it will create 10s of 1,000s of jobs.
And you miss whats coming completely. You are right in the short term, and horrifically wrong in the longer term. IE 10 years from now there will be LESS jobs for humans.
Quote:
Only about 20% of household have access to legal services, while the other 80% get nothing (unless they have a tort case on contingency). Will AI give access to 100%? No, but by reducing costs, it will give access to 60% maybe even 80%.
55% of people die intestate, because they cannot afford legal services to create a Will. AI can knock that down to maybe 15%. Households just don't have good access to family law, probate, estate planning, real estate attorneys, contract law attorneys and others they really need.
LOL. Did you know you don't need a lawyer to do a will for the vast majority of folks? People used to have family lawyers. Now most of us just grab a form online, fill out the blanks, and file stuff.
Quote:
AI will never replace attorneys and paralegals in the court room, or conduct negotiations, mediation or arbitration. Can't do investigations. Can't do fact-finding. Can't do due diligence. Can do limited research. Can't prepare documents. Can categorize documents, but can't do coding. So no jobs are lost.
LOL. I think you vastly underestimate whats coming.
Quote:
AI is not going affect management in business, either.
It already is.
Quote:
If you have a new policy, how does AI know?
Do you stare at a computer for hours and hours or can you walking around the computer chanting and sprinkling it with fairy dust?
Well, you have to tell AI you have a policy change, and what the policy is and how it is to be implemented and what departments and personnel are to be affected and on and on and on.
Well, hell, if you have to do all that, you might as well do it yourself.
Right now? Through iteration and training, or via coding. In the future? You will just tell it. Demonstrating again that you are not familiar with whats going on in the industry.
Quote:
Automation won't have any impact, either, since it creates jobs, too.
For every human welder you replace with a robot-welder, you create 1.3 jobs.
Replace 3 humans and you get 4 jobs, for a net gain of one job.
You win.
Right up until it doesnt. Once a AI can replace the smarts, and automation replaces the physical abilities, humans have very little to offer.
Quote:
AI and automation won't impact construction.
What, you though you just set up a computer and park a couple of robot machines and come back 72 hours later and there's house?
That's not how it works.
You have to tell AI and the machines what to do and how to do it, and then baby-sit them to make sure they do it right.
LOL. Again, you talk about today like nothing is changing.
Quote:
In 1968, you had a flood of computer technology in the market, and there were few people skilled or trained to use it, so it caused a massive labor shortage creating Wage Inflation and Nixon implemented a Wage & Price Freeze to stop the damage.
It took about 10 years to get your labor force up to speed, but that will never be an issue now.
...and then you even say "Its different this time" in a way thats striking. Its different WHY?
Quote:
That won't happen now, because AI and automation will not flood the market, rather it will trickle in over decades and decades, probably over the next 40 to 60 years.
Oh...because...nonsense. You are extrapolating linear growth on a exponentially growing industry. LOL.
Quote:
Your labor force will be well-trained to deal with it, so you won't have labor shortages that cause Wage Inflation, and you won't have massive job losses, either.
Our labor force is going to be replaced. Incredibly capable AI is a lot closer then you imagine.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
