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Old 09-21-2019, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Haiku
7,132 posts, read 4,772,153 times
Reputation: 10327

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Iran in many ways is like North Korea. Both of them are big enough to be a serious military threat and both of them have very vulnerable neighbors.

If the US attacks Iran and Iran considers that to be an act of war, they have the ability to pretty much wipe out 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil production. They also can effectively stop all oil from leaving the gulf. The EU and China will be really affected in a bad way.

Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel, which will prompt the Israeli's to bomb and possibly nuke Iran. At that point the moderate Arab states that have accepted Israel - Turkey, Egypt and Jordan - are going to side with their Arab brothers. So now we have a war involving every single ME nation, that is bringing the global economy to its knees, which might just prompt the Chinese to do something.

And then there is the question of what is the end game? Regime change in Iran? That means invading it with American troops. It is a quagmire worse than Iraq to go down this path.

Trump should have never left the Iran treaty. He has put us in a really difficult position.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:52 PM
 
Location: United States
12,391 posts, read 7,102,019 times
Reputation: 6135
And yet nothing has happened.

Many people that have a lot more knowledge on this topic say no there will be no war with Iran.

I'll take their word on this over the OP's.
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Old 09-21-2019, 12:58 PM
 
27,307 posts, read 16,233,828 times
Reputation: 12102
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Iran in many ways is like North Korea. Both of them are big enough to be a serious military threat and both of them have very vulnerable neighbors.

If the US attacks Iran and Iran considers that to be an act of war, they have the ability to pretty much wipe out 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil production. They also can effectively stop all oil from leaving the gulf. The EU and China will be really affected in a bad way.

Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel, which will prompt the Israeli's to bomb and possibly nuke Iran. At that point the moderate Arab states that have accepted Israel - Turkey, Egypt and Jordan - are going to side with their Arab brothers. So now we have a war involving every single ME nation, that is bringing the global economy to its knees, which might just prompt the Chinese to do something.

And then there is the question of what is the end game? Regime change in Iran? That means invading it with American troops. It is a quagmire worse than Iraq to go down this path.

Trump should have never left the Iran treaty. He has put us in a really difficult position.
No, not really. The mad mullahs decide that treaties don’t apply then these are the consequences. So they bluster, steal ships and eventually someone is going to massively slap the stupid out of them.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:03 PM
 
Location: Haiku
7,132 posts, read 4,772,153 times
Reputation: 10327
Quote:
Originally Posted by stburr91 View Post
And yet nothing has happened.

Many people that have a lot more knowledge on this topic say no there will be no war with Iran.

I'll take their word on this over the OP's.
I never predicted war. I outlined the situation.

If Trump does nothing, he has weakened the US. He has let Iran dictate what will happen. If he attacks Iran, it will be a disaster. He has put himself and the US into a no-win situation.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:06 PM
 
Location: Long Island
32,816 posts, read 19,496,494 times
Reputation: 9618
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Iran in many ways is like North Korea. Both of them are big enough to be a serious military threat and both of them have very vulnerable neighbors.

If the US attacks Iran and Iran considers that to be an act of war, they have the ability to pretty much wipe out 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil production. They also can effectively stop all oil from leaving the gulf. The EU and China will be really affected in a bad way.

Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel, which will prompt the Israeli's to bomb and possibly nuke Iran. At that point the moderate Arab states that have accepted Israel - Turkey, Egypt and Jordan - are going to side with their Arab brothers. So now we have a war involving every single ME nation, that is bringing the global economy to its knees, which might just prompt the Chinese to do something.

And then there is the question of what is the end game? Regime change in Iran? That means invading it with American troops. It is a quagmire worse than Iraq to go down this path.

Trump should have never left the Iran treaty. He has put us in a really difficult position.
the "iran treaty" never should have happened... Obazo was stupid to negotiate with the terrorist nation of Iran, he was stupid to open funds up to them...


Trump is NOT going to attack Iran...he got rid of the war hawk Bolton

Trump wants sanctions and the UN do impose even more sanctions...that is not "doing nothing" (OP post 4)

SA want the UN to acknowledge that it was Iran/Yemen (baby Iran)

I agree that "Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel" as Iran has been supplying Hezbollah..... Iran is the backer of many terrorist groups like Hezbollah
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Sonoran Desert
39,079 posts, read 51,252,674 times
Reputation: 28327
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Iran in many ways is like North Korea. Both of them are big enough to be a serious military threat and both of them have very vulnerable neighbors.

If the US attacks Iran and Iran considers that to be an act of war, they have the ability to pretty much wipe out 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil production. They also can effectively stop all oil from leaving the gulf. The EU and China will be really affected in a bad way.

Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel, which will prompt the Israeli's to bomb and possibly nuke Iran. At that point the moderate Arab states that have accepted Israel - Turkey, Egypt and Jordan - are going to side with their Arab brothers. So now we have a war involving every single ME nation, that is bringing the global economy to its knees, which might just prompt the Chinese to do something.

And then there is the question of what is the end game? Regime change in Iran? That means invading it with American troops. It is a quagmire worse than Iraq to go down this path.

Trump should have never left the Iran treaty. He has put us in a really difficult position.
Oh, lord! Iran is the only civilized country in the region outside Israel. They have a bunch of right wing nuts like the US does and that is making it hard for us to settle long-standing grievances and get on with what would be a mutually beneficial relationship.

Side with their Arab brothers? Iran is not an Arab nation. Anyway, allegiances are to religious sect.

And what is China going to do? China has no ability to project their power in the ME.

Honestly, this is one of the least informed posts on the subject I've seen on here.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:13 PM
 
Location: Haiku
7,132 posts, read 4,772,153 times
Reputation: 10327
Quote:
Originally Posted by workingclasshero View Post
the "iran treaty" never should have happened... Obazo was stupid to negotiate with the terrorist nation of Iran, he was stupid to open funds up to them...


Trump is NOT going to attack Iran...he got rid of the war hawk Bolton

Trump wants sanctions and the UN do impose even more sanctions...that is not "doing nothing" (OP post 4)

And the next time Iran lobs more drones at Saudi Arabia? What happens then?

Iran is taking a page out of NK's playbook. Suffer through the sanctions and you will end up with some nukes.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:14 PM
 
Location: Phoenix
30,385 posts, read 19,184,321 times
Reputation: 26294
Quote:
Originally Posted by TwoByFour View Post
Iran in many ways is like North Korea. Both of them are big enough to be a serious military threat and both of them have very vulnerable neighbors.

If the US attacks Iran and Iran considers that to be an act of war, they have the ability to pretty much wipe out 90% of Saudi Arabia's oil production. They also can effectively stop all oil from leaving the gulf. The EU and China will be really affected in a bad way.

Iran will probably also green light Hezbollah to attack Israel, which will prompt the Israeli's to bomb and possibly nuke Iran. At that point the moderate Arab states that have accepted Israel - Turkey, Egypt and Jordan - are going to side with their Arab brothers. So now we have a war involving every single ME nation, that is bringing the global economy to its knees, which might just prompt the Chinese to do something.

And then there is the question of what is the end game? Regime change in Iran? That means invading it with American troops. It is a quagmire worse than Iraq to go down this path.

Trump should have never left the Iran treaty. He has put us in a really difficult position.
The Middle East Shia-Sunni-Jew dilemma is tricky....I don't think we'll know whether Trump was right for years.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:18 PM
 
9,639 posts, read 6,022,039 times
Reputation: 8567
Saudi’s won’t retaliate. We good.
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Old 09-21-2019, 01:18 PM
 
45,235 posts, read 26,464,208 times
Reputation: 24995
The funds released to Iran belonged to them in the first place. If Iran wants nukes its because they are threatened by the US, Saudis and Israel. They are surrounded by hostile nuclear armed foes that have embargoed them, so you'd have to blind not see Irans motivation. However they are a long way off from attaining nukes even if they wanted to, which has never been verified.
Of course Trump is a good zionist like every US president so odds are he'll mire the US in another unwinnable and illegal war.

And Trump replaced Bolton with a like minded war hawk minus the moustache. Trump is the new swamp.
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