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NO ONE believes political polls anymore. They are just propaganda for the left.
I agree that the vast majority of posts I read here citing polls, are written by Democrats. Others discount them a lot more. I wonder why the Dems are so gullible? I guess its because they are more emotional, and less logical in their thinking.
Polls are wrong ~60% of the time, but they are not usually off by >25% like this one that showed Fried was leading over Crist 1 week out from the election. That was the worse poll I've ever seen...Crist blew her out. I wish they would sanction pollsters, and if they blow one this bad, they'd lose their sanctioning.
I find the opinion surveys to be entertaining, & more accurate, than the polls predicting a winner or loser in a election.
I agree that the vast majority of posts I read here citing polls, are written by Democrats. Others discount them a lot more. I wonder why the Dems are so gullible? I guess its because they are more emotional, and less logical in their thinking.
Polls are wrong ~60% of the time, but they are not usually off by >25% like this one that showed Fried was leading over Crist 1 week out from the election. That was the worse poll I've ever seen...Crist blew her out. I wish they would sanction pollsters, and if they blow one this bad, they'd lose their sanctioning.
I find the opinion surveys to be entertaining, & more accurate, than the polls predicting a winner or loser in a election.
I have long said that the science of polling is back to almost square one, given the absolute prevalence of cell phones. Some polls even partially rely on 'internet polling'.
What is evident is that polling fails to account for voter enthusiasm. For instance, prior to the Kansas vote last month, polls predicted a very close result. Yet, those that voted "No" beat the "Yes" vote by 18 points.
What is evident is that polling fails to account for voter enthusiasm. For instance, prior to the Kansas vote last month, polls predicted a very close result. Yet, those that voted "No" beat the "Yes" vote by 18 points.
If you look at the last couple of election, pollsters are very good at predicting how the different groups will vote. They keep getting strung up with predicting which voters do in fact vote. They underestimated Obama 10 years ago but where they were really off is with forcasting turnout among working class voters (of all races) in the Trump influenced elections (2016, 2018, 2020.) TBH- I think some of that is Trump's strength with working class voters and that his campaigns were very unconventional. I wonder if we'll see another candidate with as many top line stand ins (the kids and very close associates) who will hold as many rural and smaller market events.
It also gets trickier in states with same day and late registration as the voting pool might shift 2-3 points in one direction at the last minute and in states with quickly changing electorates like Florida that has huge influxes of older white voters and NC or Ga where the youngest voters are hugely different from older ones in terms of both their race and where they live in the state.
Statistics is an exact science, but interpreting statistics is never exact.
The biggest problem with polling accuracy is that all elections are emotional events. Emotions are so quick to change they make interpretation and prediction very hard to get right.
THat's why so many polls are taken close to Election Day. They're attempts to capture the emotions as close as possible to the moment the emotions lead to a decision on the ballot. That's the moment the poll is going to be the most accurate.
I have long said that the science of polling is back to almost square one, given the absolute prevalence of cell phones. Some polls even partially rely on 'internet polling'.
What is evident is that polling fails to account for voter enthusiasm. For instance, prior to the Kansas vote last month, polls predicted a very close result. Yet, those that voted "No" beat the "Yes" vote by 18 points.
Very good point you make about polls not including enthusiasm. I think the Pubs, Indy's, and mod Dems are more motivated to vote the radical uber leftists out of power. The harm they are doing is becoming more and more obvious as time goes by.
I'm glad Fried's political career died in its tracks last week, there was nothing I liked about her. She is just another wannabe gov't parasite....but then most are....like Crist. Call me naive, but I think DeSantis really cares about Florida & America, & he could make a good living outside politics. I think he wants to serve his country....he seems sincere to me.
Statistics is an exact science, but interpreting statistics is never exact.
The biggest problem with polling accuracy is that all elections are emotional events. Emotions are so quick to change they make interpretation and prediction very hard to get right.
THat's why so many polls are taken close to Election Day. They're attempts to capture the emotions as close as possible to the moment the emotions lead to a decision on the ballot. That's the moment the poll is going to be the most accurate.
The amount of banter here over polls taken weeks and months before an election disappoints me. Too many people believe them, & can't see them for what they are...propaganda.
The amount of banter here over polls taken weeks and months before an election disappoints me. Too many people believe them, & can't see them for what they are...propaganda.
Polls are certainly used as propaganda.
But using sound and proven statistical methodology for polling still renders the most reliable predictions of all.
That the polls have been wrong so often over the past decade isn't due to the science; it reflects how fast and how often the national moods change these days.
So far, no polling methods devised have been able to keep up with how fast the voter's opinions change back and forth. Our communications is incredibly quick now, almost instantaneous, and is the most easily accessed in human history.
Everything is happening at such fast speed now it's next to impossible to keep up with everything all the time everywhere.
We are all inundated by too much information that comes at us all far too fast. Naturally, so much info leaves us all suspicious some of it is phony. That's probably a good thing.
But truth does still exist, and truth always has more substance than rumor or belief. It's just harder to discern now in the flood than it once was when we all had more time to look things over.
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