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Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,774,755 times
Reputation: 3587
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People are very alarmist. We will be fine. Things may be a bit slow right now but this is a marathon and not a race. Consider:
1. Even at 5.5% unemployment is historically low
2. Corporate profits except for a few selected industries (cars, airlines) are still rising
3. Inflation is still low if you take out food and fuel.
4. Housing is slow but WOW what a great buying opportunity!
5. Oil has pretty much peaked and will start falling soon.
6. The stock market has fallen but if you look over the long term, it is still at a high and will go higher in the fall. Buy now!
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,774,755 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by total_genius
I see no way the American Economy can ever really recover. Our day in the sun has come and gone. With the rising cost of energy and such low consumer confidence, credit crisis and weak political leadership I see no way things will improve. Business grows only if there is hope by most people that the economy will be booming in the near future. I do not see this happening.
The glory days of America is over!
That depends on your definition of "the glory days". If by the glory days you mean huge houses in far flung exurbs with long dialy commutes in huge SUVs, you are probably right. If you mean the days of "zero down with bad credit and no down payment" for a house, you are probably right.
But a new America will rise. An America that is more efficient, smarter and better than the old America ever was. That is the really nice thing about America- when the sun sets on one era, it rises on another! We have been there before. The sun set on the agricultural America and it rose on the industrial America. The sun set on industrial America and rose on the technology America. Whenever the sun sets on one America, it always rises on another America!
Bush is the modern equivalent to Herbert Hoover: give money to the rich and it will trickle down to the unemployed masses.
Strong parallels also to Marie Antoinette who said (let then eat cake): so the GOP says ketchup is a vegetable as far as the school lunch program goes for YOUR kids.
Bush is the modern equivalent to Herbert Hoover: give money to the rich and it will trickle down to the unemployed masses.
Strong parallels also to Marie Antoinette who said (let then eat cake): so the GOP says ketchup is a vegetable as far as the school lunch program goes for YOUR kids.
Partially agree, but Bush cut taxes substantially for those folks, eliminating them in many cases. Also, his medicine plan for elderly is certainly not Hoover like.
Partially agree, but Bush cut taxes substantially for those folks, eliminating them in many cases. Also, his medicine plan for elderly is certainly not Hoover like.
Bush's medicare drug "benefit" is a benefit alright, for big drug companies. Billions shifted from the U.S. Treasury to corporate hogs.
Bush's medicare drug "benefit" is a benefit alright, for big drug companies. Billions shifted from the U.S. Treasury to corporate hogs.
While it could certainly have been put together to provide better benefits and/or lower cost, it still is a benefit to many senior citizens. My parents are saving about $1,300 this year due to the program, and they live on under $50K per year(Obama tax exemption proposal for seniors).
People are very alarmist. We will be fine. Things may be a bit slow right now but this is a marathon and not a race. Consider:
1. Even at 5.5% unemployment is historically low
2. Corporate profits except for a few selected industries (cars, airlines) are still rising
3. Inflation is still low if you take out food and fuel.
4. Housing is slow but WOW what a great buying opportunity!
5. Oil has pretty much peaked and will start falling soon.
6. The stock market has fallen but if you look over the long term, it is still at a high and will go higher in the fall. Buy now!
Pretty much my take on the economic situation too, but I find few agree with me on the board.
I'll add that the falling dollar has made us much more competitive as a manufacturing alternative, lessening the benefit of shifting work overseas. But the Fed bashers don't choose to acknowledge this benefit.
1. there is a lot of "Underemployment", the 5.5% is not an accurate reflection
2. this will change very soon, IMO
3. Food and fuel are big chunk of one's living expenses!!! and they are a necessity. Can't really cut them out, like you can buying a big screen tv or a new computer
4. hard to get a loan these days also... so lots of people can not buy... and for those that bought within the last year or two, not very encouraging to see your "investment" drop and drop.
5. The oil market will NOT peak soon and Drop, IMO
6. sorry, don't believe that either.
and add to that the falling US$ , I think things look very bleak, however - I hope I am wrong on ALL ACCOUNTS
__________________
The price of anything is the amount of life you exchange for it. ~Henry David Thoreau
People are very alarmist. We will be fine. Things may be a bit slow right now but this is a marathon and not a race. Consider:
1. Even at 5.5% unemployment is historically low
2. Corporate profits except for a few selected industries (cars, airlines) are still rising
3. Inflation is still low if you take out food and fuel.
4. Housing is slow but WOW what a great buying opportunity!
5. Oil has pretty much peaked and will start falling soon.
6. The stock market has fallen but if you look over the long term, it is still at a high and will go higher in the fall. Buy now!
KevK, there are some shortcomings in your list, I'll provide my understanding.
1. Unemployment numbers are rigged in that they only list those people who are LOOKING for work but can't find it. All those people (millions?) who've long since dropped out of the workforce or work "off the books" are not counted in the "official" stats. Further, part time employees are not counted as unemployed even though they may only get a few hours of work per week and cannot live on a few hours here and there. When it comes to "data" the devil is in the details and in the underlying set of rules / definitions / assumptions that are used by the organization generating the stats. Most stats need great scrutiny before becoming gospel.
2. Corporate profits are taking hits now and this is being reported daily, be it Lehman Bros, GE, the airlines, the automakers, etc. Most folks don't see any silver lining, inflation is squeezing profits.
3. Inflation low IF we take out food and fuel? One of most ridiculous remarks ever made by government, and so blatantly ludicrous that it should make us all despise our "leaders" in DC. If YOU can STOP eating and driving, you may be okay, the rest of us HAVE to eat and thus have to PAY the inflated price of food, much of which is due to the idiotic ethanol subsidy.
4. Good time to buy a house if you need one AND can get funding, but that's the rub. Credit is so tight that you have to be like gold to get a loan, and truth is that anyone who wanted a home probably bought one during the bubble phase of e-z credit and stupid mortgage lending. Those who HAVE to move may be looking to buy, but most people are in a home already. Tight credit has dried up virtually all of the "lets move up" segment of the market.
5. Oil may have peaked, maybe not. No way to know unless price recedes. It closed at a new high yesterday, just over $140BBL.
6. The stock market has fallen 19.9% since it's high last October. Most expect it to fall more, and once it crosses that 20% mark, we are OFFICIALLY in Bear Market territory. With more bad news yet to hit, about $1T more in ARMs that will reset between now and next Spring, there is ample room for the Dow to fall to 10k or less. I have cash to buy stocks, but that money stays safe until the market turns up on real fundamentals (not broker hot air) and that could take years. Remember, Wall Street LIARS said that Enron was a STRONG BUY the ENTIRE time is was falling to ZERO.
Don't buy rosy scenario's handed out by those shouting "buy now" no matter who they are (brokers, realtors, car dealers, etc).
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