War with Iran - will it happen? (Iraq, middle east, Israeli)

[geos]

This story has fallen off the radar screen in favor of more relevant issues like Lipstick Gate but I think there's nothing more important. I can't imagine Israel living with a nuclear Iran yet they don't have the capability to strike a meaningful blow without US support. How can the US strike without Russian and Chinese approval which have large interests in Iran? It wouldn't just be a one shot deal. Iran would strike at Israel & US interests in the region and abroad. Would Russia & China get involved to protect their interests? It would mean $250/bbl oil instantly which would decimate the global economy. This could quickly spiral out of control.

The Iran Trap | CommonDreams.org
The Israeli leadership, like the Bush White House, is increasingly bellicose and threatening. The Israeli prime minister, after a 90-minute meeting with Bush in the White House on Wednesday, said the two leaders were of one mind. "We reached agreement on the need to take care of the Iranian threat," Ehud Olmert said. "I left with a lot less questions marks [than] I had entered with regarding the means, the timetable restrictions and American resoluteness to deal with the problem. George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it and intends to act on the matter before the end of his term in the White House."

[GOPATTA2D]

Originally Posted by geos

It would mean $250/bbl oil instantly which would decimate the global economy. This could quickly spiral out of control.

If you think it is likely, its a good time to buy Exxon. I think it will be a strategic strike. We are not going to invade like we did in Iraq.

[swagger]

Israel doesn't typically announce its intentions when it's going to take military action. The more they saber rattle, the less likely it is that they're going to do something.

That said, they won't stand for Iran having a nuclear program. They WILL strike if necessary.

If they do, they'll be flying through the airspace of either: Turkey, Jordan/Iraq, Syria/Iraq and/or Saudi Arabia. The most likely route would be Jordan/Iraq or Syria/Iraq, and they're not flying across Iraq without our approval. They'd likely be stopping somewhere for fuel, too. Yeah, it's safe to say that they'd need our support.

As for what happens next, that's a tough one. If they shut down oil production, there's going to be a LOT of countries who will be ticked off about it - not just the U.S. They're friendly with Russia, but I don't know if Russia would want to get involved directly - they'd probably be content supporting them indirectly by continuing to supply weapons.

France would do nothing, of course, other than stand on their soap box at the UN and criticize us.

China's a wild-card - not sure what they'd do. Probably nothing.

The big question is what action the other middle eastern countries would take - that's where things could get out of control. If Syria and Lebanon go balls out, it could get very ugly...

[jtur88]

Depends on whether war with somebody else becomes more fashionably urgent before we get around to it. The way Bush's war against Iraq got sidetracked by the necessity of invading Afghanistan first.

[Mircea]

Originally Posted by geos

I can't imagine Israel living with a nuclear Iran.

Lot's of countries have nuclear reactors, but they don't have nuclear bombs.

I don't want to make you look ignurnt or nothing, but Iran started it's nuclear energy program over 30 years ago and in earnest over 25 years ago when Siemens, a German company, started building the dual-reactors at Bushwer.

Nobody said jack-shat about Iran's nuclear energy program, not even the Joos, of course the Joos were busy buying oil from Iran.

Oh, how quickly we forget.

Marc Rich, a buddy of Clinton, set up the deal and took a nice chunk of money for himself then conveniently forgot to pay taxes on it, but then you can't pay taxes on money that you got illegally by violating US laws.

No problem, Clinton pardoned Rich.

But, of course, since Clinton and his National Security Advisor Tony Lake who is now Obama's campaign foreign policy advisor, lied and violated 17 US laws and 4 UN Security Council Resolutions, by spending $500 Million to $800 Million of your tax dollars to buy weapons from Iran and them to terrorists in Bosnia and Kosovo-Metohija.

Iran's nuclear energy program wasn't an issue until Iran announced its Euro oil bourse in February 2003 (right before the US invaded Iraq).

Originally Posted by geos

yet they don't have the capability to strike a meaningful blow without US support.

Israel can only dream about it unless the US is willing to provide aerial tanker and fighter coverage (plus lots of intelligence especially imagery data).

Originally Posted by geos

How can the US strike without Russian and Chinese approval which have large interests in Iran?

The Germans had 92 companies doing business in Iraq and that didn't stop the US from invading and causing those 92 companies to have a bad hair day.

Is there some particular reason why you would intentionally ignore the fact that the French oil company Total is running amok in Iran?

Oh, you didn't know that, I see.

The US didn't get permission from the Russians or the Chinese either and both were about to get oil contracts in Iraq.

No matter, the Kurds just told the Iraqis to get bent and awarded the Chinese a contract to explore for oil in their country, ooops! I mean their region of Iraq, and the Shi'a, ooops! I mean the Iraqis just awarded a giant contract to China for 2 of the 9 unexplored geological regions in southern Iraq.

Originally Posted by geos

It would mean $250/bbl oil instantly which would decimate the global economy.

Iran has a dwindling supply of light oil, which the US doesn't buy and they have an over-abundance of heavy oil which the US (and the rest of the world ) really doesn't need, so no, you can forget about the $250/bbl of oil.

If the US takes any action, it will use about 11 to 12 combat brigades (8 of which are part of the two amphibious ready groups sitting in the Persian Gulf) to seize Kuzehstan.

All of the pipelines in Kuzehstan run to Iraq or Kuwait, or right to the ports, except a small natural gas pipeline that runs northeast through a gap in the Zagros Mountains.

80% of Irans' oil and 4% of the world's oil is in Kuzehstan, so if the US controls it, there won't be much the Iranians can do about it.

[GregW]

In my unhumble oponion Israel is a friend we do not need. Isreal is not our friend it is our client and nothing more.

Attacking Iran is just about as stupid a move as either Israel and/or we could do. We would gain nothing but a lot of grief and give the rest of the Arab world a great excuse to apply a final solution to the Israel problem. But then that may be considered the goal of this plan from the point of view of the end of the world final day’s crusaders. There is great evil involved in this presumptive conflict and a lot of it is owned by our government’.

[swagger]

Originally Posted by GregW

In my unhumble oponion ...

Typical liberal.

[domino]

Originally Posted by swagger

Typical liberal.

Thank you for adding such thoughtful insights to this debate.

[Luke29]

An attack on Iran would never happen? I mean what would Israel be attacking in Iran? The Nuclear facilities?? It's all talk, it will never happen.

[swagger]

Originally Posted by domino

Thank you for adding such thoughtful insights to this debate.

Look up a few posts - I already did. You, on the other hand, haven't added anything to this thread other than an attack against me.

Pot, meet kettle.

Besides, GregW knows (I think) that I just like giving him a hard time. We don't agree on much, but he's a nice guy and can take some harmless ribbing. I'm not so sure about some other people on this forum, though...