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Funny, I was just thinking the same thing
You know that if the CBO report said that the only effects were negative, some people would be trumpeting it like gospel.
And some people like myself think the CBO is full of BS, just like the rest of them.
Yep;unempoymentrates keep increasing so if thasi isn't propoganda its really got much worse since Obama got inoffice .That would mean the loss jobs numbers were even worse if those new jobs made not even a dent in unemployemnt.Ype;saw a report on a local agency on teh enw tonight that got stimulsu moeny. The only thing is it was just money from the stimulus and not from other sources they always get. They said the net effect was nil except the paperwork was increased.
Of course, my "academic economist". But if we look at the current account balance, it is indeed a net reduction from the time the check was cashed.
And I suppose that would be because even though that big fat plus representing your paycheck got deposited, you wrote so many checks that the entire plus was used up, and some of the balance that had been brought forward to boot. So it looks like a net negative can still include a substantial plus if substantial minuses are occurring at the same time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hawkeye2009
Let's review again for those that are stoned or drunk (Saggy- put down that bong and think for a second). When the number of new jobs is greater than the number of jobs lost, unemployment falls. When the number of new jobs is less than the number of lost jobs, unemployment rises. I understand that in the fog of liberalism simple concepts can be confusing, but unemployment numbers do not lie- Obama is failing. If we were to use leftists Saggy logic, we would all be much more happy at an unemployment rate of 45%, as there would be 55% "saved jobs". That is just a TON of "saved jobs". Obama is such a genius- he can even make liberal spin look rational.
Just in the month of September, there were more than 4 million new hires in the economy. Unfortunately, there were enough terminations and contract expirations that non-farm employment fell by 263,000 anyway. And I guess that because of that, you're going to try to tell me that NONE of those more than 4 million new hires could have had anything at all to do with ARRA. Is that about the size of it?
Recipients report that about 640,000 jobs were created or retained with ARRA funding through September 2009. Such reports, however, do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law’s impact on employment in the United States. http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/106xx/doc...11-30-ARRA.pdf
Exactly. The data that are flowing through that little As Reported by Recipients window on recovery.gov have never been intended to represent the actual employment effects of the stimulus bill. The data represent just one slice of one piece out of everything that ARRA is doing. The purpose of that window is to provide transparency -- to show you the low level detail as reported by your own neighbors of what sort of things are happening in your neighborhood and your community as the result of ARRA. As a special bonus, we've gotten to see that some of your neighbors aren't very good at math and don't know what Congressional district they live in...
Seriously. "Between 600,000 and 1.6 million" should be enough verbiage to make the whole country roll its collective eyes.
That's like saying a Senator is worth between $1M and $500M on financial disclosure reports. There's nothing but hidden lies somewhere in a spectrum that broad.
Maybe the same scientist behind global warming came up with these numbers too?
They are reporting the limits of the confidence interval. Sort of like when you see a poll and it says the margin of error is 3%. Garden variety statitical analysis. It's done all the time in business, government, and academia...
Between 600,000 and 1.6 million is garden variety statitical analysis?
Exactly. The data that are flowing through that little As Reported by Recipients window on recovery.gov have never been intended to represent the actual employment effects of the stimulus bill. The data represent just one slice of one piece out of everything that ARRA is doing. The purpose of that window is to provide transparency -- to show you the low level detail as reported by your own neighbors of what sort of things are happening in your neighborhood and your community as the result of ARRA. As a special bonus, we've gotten to see that some of your neighbors aren't very good at math and don't know what Congressional district they live in...
So in short the number is BS. That is what I thought. Thanks for clearing that up.
Between 600,000 and 1.6 million is garden variety statitical analysis? What planet are you from?
This one, and I'm so sorry that you've had no exposure whatsoever to econometrics and other forms of statistical analysis. Courses in it are regularly offered. Maybe you should have signed up for one at some point if you wanted to seem even marginally credible re the topic...
I wonder if the CBO would have looked better instead of making a claim of between 600K to 1.6 million ( a huge gap) jobs saved or created, it should have said there was no way to put a tangible number on it as we can't accurately measure the number of jobs concretely saved?
PS. Since some of the "saved" jobs were state workers who will now be terminated in 2010 due to rising state budget deficits, will the CBO readjust the numbers downward, or "once saved always saved". Sort of like Evangelical accounting!
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