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I don't think you want to hang your hat on a slight dip in unemployment as a "trend".
No one said the November dip was a trend. The number of people losing their jobs has been less and less since January. That's a trend toward better times. Imagine where we'd be if we kept losing 700K jobs every month like we did in January
No one said the November dip was a trend. The number of people losing their jobs has been less and less since January. That's a trend toward better times. Imagine where we'd be if we kept losing 700K jobs every month like we did in January
Yup. The decrease in the number of people losing their jobs each month has been DRAMATIC - and bodes well for the coming year.
Nonfarm payroll employment fell sharply in January (-598,000) and the unemployment rate rose from
7.2 to 7.6 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Payroll
employment has declined by 3.6 million since the start of the recession in December 2007; about one-half of
this decline occurred in the past 3 months. In January, job losses were large and widespread across nearly all
major industry sectors.
About 2.1 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in January,
about 400,000 more than 12 months earlier. These individuals wanted and were available for work and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 734,000
discouraged workers in January, up by about 270,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not
currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them. The other 1.4 million persons
marginally attached to the labor force in January had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey
for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities.
Yup. The decrease in the number of people losing their jobs each month has been DRAMATIC - and bodes well for the coming year.
Ken
Yes, the chart illustrates the improvement has been as dramatic as the free-fall of 2008, only in reverse. I gotta admit that althought I am a positive thinker I had a hollow feeling in my belly in 2008 when DOW was losing 700 points on some days and biggest and baddest US corporations were falling like decks of cards.
Last edited by Finn_Jarber; 12-12-2009 at 08:52 PM..
I agree that the dip the unemployment rate is not yet a "trend" - and may indeed rise a bit yet before a downward trend takes hold. However - the job loss decrease IS a trend - one that has been going on since February - which means a coming downward "trend" in the unemployment rate is pretty much a foregone conclusion. The two numbers sound like they are the same thing but they are not - there ARE some subtle but important differences. They ARE however strongly related.
Net worth data is NOT meaningless. It has an powerful impact on how "comfortable" people feel about their personal financial position - and therefore how much they are willing to spend. It's purely psychological of course - but then again pretty much everything about economics has a psychological aspect to it. The massive rise in the stock market during the Clinton years for example was a powerful incentive for people to go out and spend. They "felt" more well-off therefor they behaved that way. Now, one can certainly argue whether or not that is a "good" thing (that really depends on the circumstances) but there is no doubt it has an economic impact. Just as the crash of the stock market and all the job cuts happening around people (who still had jobs) stunted the desire of those still-employed people to spend, the rise of the stock market will encourage those same people TO spend - just as soon as they start feeling more secure in their jobs (which they will when the job losses end). So again, net worth is NOT meaningless.
Ken
Taken together neither is particularly encouraging. As people continue to lose jobs, less bad it not viewed as good.
Increase in the value of stock portfolios isn't particularly encouraging given the fragile nature of those gains. Peoples memories are short but it was a mere 15 months ago that most peoples portfolios were where they are now but in the intervening time lost 30-40% of its value. In the context of recent history increases in net worth driven by housing and stock increases are meaningless.
No one said the November dip was a trend. The number of people losing their jobs has been less and less since January. That's a trend toward better times. Imagine where we'd be if we kept losing 700K jobs every month like we did in January
I don't think anyone envisioned losing 700,000 jobs/month forever. Less bad is not the same as good. We are staring at a jobless recovery.
I am optimistic about the coming year, and you are not. That's the difference between people like you and people like me.
I view my self as a realist. You simply cannot continue to pile on debt, and burden the American people with increased energy costs and hope to grow the economy.
When you lose 8 million jobs in 11 months any downward trend shows that there are not many people left to count.
Dems are getting very desperate for ANY good news.
When the dems think this is good news it tells you that is all they have got to hang onto.
If 10% are unemployed, then doesn't that mean most are still employed? Use a calculator if you must. So, there are still plenty of people who are left to count.
I am not a Dem, but I am optimistic. See, optimism and pessimism does not depend on a political party, although chronic pessimism seems to be synonymous with the Republican party.
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