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"Jeffrey Shaman, an epidemiologist at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health, told us for a previous story that per-capita test numbers are “not as informative as looking at testing per positive infection identified.”
Comparing the U.S. to South Korea, for example, Shaman said, “They’re testing 10 times as many per infection found.”
We downloaded the data for May 9 and found that the U.S. ranked 59th out of 64 countries in tests per confirmed case as of that date."
In May we were testing only people with a fever, cough, or shortness of breath who had a test ordered by a doctor. It's been a completely different story for several months now.
It is definitely serious, and some entities outside CDC and FDA are overblowing it.
If you say all 200K were preventable, you're overblowing it - because you are stating we could have been the ONLY country to have zero deaths.
Conversely, if you claim there have only been 10K COVID deaths, you're dangerously downplaying the virus.
COVID deaths will likely rank #6 for the year, ahead of Diabetes and Flu/Pneumonia. At some point, by local, state and national, we'll be analyzing excess deaths as the true number.
If you focus on the # of cases, you're overblowing it - because we now know that the sensitivity of the US test is greater (by what %, that I can't claim to understand) than other countries.
If you want to use info from May 9 on Sept 21, you're doing what's expected of you - picking and choosing that which supports your politics. AFAIK, the experts on this virus are Fauci etal. We shouldn't have to question the politics of those in science, but sadly it appears that's a filter now too.
There's way too many people that want to make a public health crisis political, and sadly the media drives it.
IMO, if 800 cases were 75+ and they all went to the hospital and 1/2 eventually went to the ICU - heck yes, that's a huge #.
But what we have been seeing is steady confirmed hospitalizations - ~100/day. And yet despite that number, ICU beds are steady/declining at 300. So maybe I oversimplify it - if you're adding to hospitalizations but NOT to ICU bed usage that's a good thing. But, we're short some info - like average ICU stay, % of deaths occuring in hospital (which I assume is almost 100% but who knows). It does appear that death stats trail new cases by 10-20 days.
It is definitely serious, and some entities outside CDC and FDA are overblowing it.
If you say all 200K were preventable, you're overblowing it - because you are stating we could have been the ONLY country to have zero deaths.
Conversely, if you claim there have only been 10K COVID deaths, you're dangerously downplaying the virus.
COVID deaths will likely rank #6 for the year, ahead of Diabetes and Flu/Pneumonia. At some point, by local, state and national, we'll be analyzing excess deaths as the true number.
If you focus on the # of cases, you're overblowing it - because we now know that the sensitivity of the US test is greater (by what %, that I can't claim to understand) than other countries.
If you want to use info from May 9 on Sept 21, you're doing what's expected of you - picking and choosing that which supports your politics. AFAIK, the experts on this virus are Fauci etal. We shouldn't have to question the politics of those in science, but sadly it appears that's a filter now too.
There's way too many people that want to make a public health crisis political, and sadly the media drives it.
IMO, if 800 cases were 75+ and they all went to the hospital and 1/2 eventually went to the ICU - heck yes, that's a huge #.
But what we have been seeing is steady confirmed hospitalizations - ~100/day. And yet despite that number, ICU beds are steady/declining at 300. So maybe I oversimplify it - if you're adding to hospitalizations but NOT to ICU bed usage that's a good thing. But, we're short some info - like average ICU stay, % of deaths occuring in hospital (which I assume is almost 100% but who knows). It does appear that death stats trail new cases by 10-20 days.
But they better look at the specifics of the deaths. There is a lot of excess due to the shutdown that should not be attributed to the virus. They also need to consider the lower deaths last year from an easy flu season. Many of the older, congregate living deaths from COVID were, sadly, catching up from last year.
In order to have a large reduction in deaths we would need to have done one of two things:
1. Known about the virus before it was brought to the United States. I think it's pretty safe to say that Covid was here in the US before even China knew about it (assuming it was actually transmitted naturally from a bat).
2. Locked down for far longer than we did, which would be pretty crazy considering the low risk involved for the majority of the population.
Could we agree that staging super spreader events indoors without masks with people screaming and yelling in close proximity could be a "bad idea". Maybe modeling the wearing of a mask could be prudent?
What are the plans for the Fall's onslaught? The scientists (maybe even including the ones who created the vaccine) believe we may be in for a second wave. Let's hope there are ample N95 masks and other supplies at this point in time. This is a true crisis and may even have to take some time and energy away from other tasks at hand.
If you want to see how messed up death statistics are, take a look at Massachusetts. Massachusetts has been seeing around 100-300 positives per day for many many months, while seeing about 10-30 deaths per day. The only way that would be possible is if they were counting anyone who ever tested positive for Covid as a Covid death. This has been going for a very long time, so it's not like it's due to lag. We're seeing similar death stats in NC with cases in the 1500-2000 range.
If you want to see how messed up death statistics are, take a look at Massachusetts. Massachusetts has been seeing around 100-300 positives per day for many many months, while seeing about 10-30 deaths per day. The only way that would be possible is if they were counting anyone who ever tested positive for Covid as a Covid death. This has been going for a very long time, so it's not like it's due to lag. We're seeing similar death stats in NC with cases in the 1500-2000 range.
How can you say that's "the only way"? There are lags between being infected and dying from it correct? Isn't there an entire group of people called the "Long Haulers" specifically about this lag?
Didn't that Broadway guy fight COVID for months before he died? Is your position that he wasn't a "COVID Death"?
MA's daily deaths have been sub 50 since July. If someone got COVID on July 5th and died from a stroke on September 22nd in the hospital...where does that fall? Their case was noted in the 7/5 number, and their death noted in the 9/22 number.
from every chart I've looked at, deaths have followed cases by 10-20 days. Of course, some will day the die after testing positive, and some were long haulers.
Some people WILL have long-term serious negative effects, and at a higher rate than what happens with the flu or other viruses. But I note it's all "may" and "expect" with some unverified % attached to it. It's kind of impossible to figure "long-term" effects when the virus has only been around 6 months.
Unless they were following up with folks that had say "signs of lung scarring" and studying changes (or not) in condition. I haven't seen any of that. We've heard "shortness of breath or fatigue" 30 days after discharge, etc - but all anecdotal and none research data. What % at what age? What % for underlying conditions? eetc.
What is the cause of death in younger healthy people due to COVID-19 who have no big past medical history? You guys who think the virus is exaggerated don't have an answer for that. All you keep blaming are the "high-risk" populations.
"HOUSTON, Texas -- A Houston doctor who was diagnosed with COVID-19 this summer has died, according to her family.
Dr. Adeline Fagan, 28, was starting her second year of residency in Houston as an OB/GYN when she got sick in July."
How can you say that's "the only way"? There are lags between being infected and dying from it correct? Isn't there an entire group of people called the "Long Haulers" specifically about this lag?
Didn't that Broadway guy fight COVID for months before he died? Is your position that he wasn't a "COVID Death"?
MA's daily deaths have been sub 50 since July. If someone got COVID on July 5th and died from a stroke on September 22nd in the hospital...where does that fall? Their case was noted in the 7/5 number, and their death noted in the 9/22 number.
So for the sake of argument lets say that's all true. In NC's case, where we have about 5 times the number of daily cases, why aren't we seeing far more deaths? Are NC's deaths being under-reported?
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