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If you want to see how messed up death statistics are, take a look at Massachusetts. Massachusetts has been seeing around 100-300 positives per day for many many months, while seeing about 10-30 deaths per day. The only way that would be possible is if they were counting anyone who ever tested positive for Covid as a Covid death. This has been going for a very long time, so it's not like it's due to lag. We're seeing similar death stats in NC with cases in the 1500-2000 range.
That's because once you test positive for Covid, you are put into the database never to be removed again. If you die of anything at all after that, you will be included as a Covid death. You died a month later, 6 months later or eventually a year later as a result of something else, including car accident or house fire (those are 2 real examples) and you will be included in the Covid death total because you were in the system as having tested positive for Covid and you eventually died of something.
What is the cause of death in younger healthy people due to COVID-19 who have no big past medical history? You guys who think the virus is exaggerated don't have an answer for that. All you keep blaming are the "high-risk" populations.
"HOUSTON, Texas -- A Houston doctor who was diagnosed with COVID-19 this summer has died, according to her family.
Dr. Adeline Fagan, 28, was starting her second year of residency in Houston as an OB/GYN when she got sick in July."
It's not an all or nothing thing. Many of us have issues with the way things are reported and calculated. That doesn't mean we think there is no way for a younger healthier person to die. No need to bring it to that extreme. The virus can kill anyone, but the data shows us younger healthier people are at an extreme low risk. I read a report the other day stating for younger people, under 21, the seasonal flu is actually deadlier than Covid. The older you get and the more health issues you have, Covid becomes much more deadly than the seasonal flu.
It's not an all or nothing thing. Many of us have issues with the way things are reported and calculated. That doesn't mean we think there is no way for a younger healthier person to die. No need to bring it to that extreme. The virus can kill anyone, but the data shows us younger healthier people are at an extreme low risk. I read a report the other day stating for younger people, under 21, the seasonal flu is actually deadlier than Covid. The older you get and the more health issues you have, Covid becomes much more deadly than the seasonal flu.
Good, then stop saying it doesn't affect younger people at all and everyone thing can reopen at the usual pace. When you say that, parents and younger people think they are invincible and do whatever.
There is a 7 y/o who is COVID-19 positive at a local hospital currently in the Pediatric ICU with pretty extensive lung scarring with no developmental issues, no genetic issues, no hypertension with average height and weight curves.
Good, then stop saying it doesn't affect younger people at all and everyone thing can reopen at the usual pace. When you say that, parents and younger people think they are invincible and do whatever.
There is a 7 y/o who is COVID-19 positive at a local hospital currently in the Pediatric ICU with pretty extensive lung scarring with no developmental issues, no genetic issues, no hypertension with average height and weight curves.
For the love of God, I never said that it doesn't affect young people at all. Please stop making stuff up.
Just wondering if the United States is the only country that employs these highly sensitive viral tests? Do other developed nations utilize these tests?
Just wondering if the United States is the only country that employs these highly sensitive viral tests? Do other developed nations utilize these tests?
Would be nice to know, wouldn't it?
My guess is the tests are the same. However the sensitivity threshold is what may differ.
So for the sake of argument lets say that's all true. In NC's case, where we have about 5 times the number of daily cases, why aren't we seeing far more deaths? Are NC's deaths being under-reported?
I think we would have to do deep a dive on the data (deeper than the Tableau Executive dashboards offers, unless they have the "Download Source Data" option enabled) but a couple of thoughts.
Is there lag data available? By lag data, I mean is there a dataset that shows something like the following
Anonymized Patient ID
Date of Positive Test
Date of Death
You would need that dataset to determine when the 7 people who died in MA yesterday got infected.
Your post that I quoted read like "well MA had 256 cases on 9/21 and 7 deaths" as if those 7 were part of the 256, when I think it's pretty clear that that is an apples and tire irons comp.
The 7 people who died in MA yesterday could have been infected at any point between 3/13 and 9/21 (even if we remove the 2 who died in a house fire and 1 the one who got smoked by a drunk driver on 495)
NC had 1106 new cases on 9/15 and 51 deaths. If that was a Venn-Diagram, the middle "shared" section of those two would be, more than likely, almost nothing. COVID isn't arsenic poisoning. It doesn't work like "ZOMG, I gots the Roooooooooon...." dead.
It takes time for the disease to ravage the lungs to the point of failure, mess up other vital organs, create blood clots etc etc etc. All the mechanisms that ultimately lead to a person's demise. Nick Cordero died of what, strokes and sepsis after 90 days in the ICU?
Now, if your point wasn't as I interpreted it above, please state so. But it seemed like you were saying "MA had 599 cases on 9/19 and 26 deaths, NC had 1229 cases on 9/19 and 28 deaths, MA is monkeying with their numbers because we would have waaaaay more deaths here because we had almost three times the cases for the same time period" which, if is what you meant, I think misses the entire lag point...because like HIV/AIDS, COVID doesn't kill you. Something it causes (strokes, organ failure, Pneumonia, Sepsis blah blah blah) are what does and those, depending on how unhealthy you are to begin with, take time to manifest.
Just wondering if the United States is the only country that employs these highly sensitive viral tests? Do other developed nations utilize these tests?
I believe there was a discussion in the old thread about this. The test the US uses is a 37-40 cycle test. Most of the EU is using a test that is a 30 cycle test (if I am remembering the discussion correctly).
I have heard from my buddy at Merck that the test we use here is not typically the "go to type of test" to determine infection rates. It isn't a great diagnostic test in a pandemic...its a better test for later to see "how widespread a disease got...not to determine where the hot spots real time are".
I think we would have to do deep a dive on the data (deeper than the Tableau Executive dashboards offers, unless they have the "Download Source Data" option enabled) but a couple of thoughts.
Is there lag data available? By lag data, I mean is there a dataset that shows something like the following
Anonymized Patient ID
Date of Positive Test
Date of Death
You would need that dataset to determine when the 7 people who died in MA yesterday got infected.
Your post that I quoted read like "well MA had 256 cases on 9/21 and 7 deaths" as if those 7 were part of the 256, when I think it's pretty clear that that is an apples and tire irons comp.
The 7 people who died in MA yesterday could have been infected at any point between 3/13 and 9/21 (even if we remove the 2 who died in a house fire and 1 the one who got smoked by a drunk driver on 495)
NC had 1106 new cases on 9/15 and 51 deaths. If that was a Venn-Diagram, the middle "shared" section of those two would be, more than likely, almost nothing. COVID isn't arsenic poisoning. It doesn't work like "ZOMG, I gots the Roooooooooon...." dead.
It takes time for the disease to ravage the lungs to the point of failure, mess up other vital organs, create blood clots etc etc etc. All the mechanisms that ultimately lead to a person's demise. Nick Cordero died of what, strokes and sepsis after 90 days in the ICU?
Now, if your point wasn't as I interpreted it above, please state so. But it seemed like you were saying "MA had 599 cases on 9/19 and 26 deaths, NC had 1229 cases on 9/19 and 28 deaths, MA is monkeying with their numbers because we would have waaaaay more deaths here because we had almost three times the cases for the same time period" which, if is what you meant, I think misses the entire lag point...because like HIV/AIDS, COVID doesn't kill you. Something it causes (strokes, organ failure, Pneumonia, Sepsis blah blah blah) are what does and those, depending on how unhealthy you are to begin with, take time to manifest.
For the last 3 months (since mid June) MA's daily reported positives (they do report duplicates as part of that) has been averaging between low 200s-high 400s a day.
They didn't drop out of their death curve until mid-July, but since that time have run pretty consistently along their 14-17 death a day average.
I stopped following closely, but a large percentage of the recent deaths out of MA were still in LTC. It seems kind of clear that a lot of their recent deaths are LTC residents who have met their end since MA's hospitalizations have been low with ICU numbers reliably in the 50-60 range for the entire state. If those deaths were actually coming out of the ICU, you would be clearing it every 4 days.
NC for the last two months has run between 20-28 deaths a day on average.
I think we would have to do deep a dive on the data (deeper than the Tableau Executive dashboards offers, unless they have the "Download Source Data" option enabled) but a couple of thoughts.
Is there lag data available? By lag data, I mean is there a dataset that shows something like the following
Anonymized Patient ID
Date of Positive Test
Date of Death
You would need that dataset to determine when the 7 people who died in MA yesterday got infected.
Your post that I quoted read like "well MA had 256 cases on 9/21 and 7 deaths" as if those 7 were part of the 256, when I think it's pretty clear that that is an apples and tire irons comp.
The 7 people who died in MA yesterday could have been infected at any point between 3/13 and 9/21 (even if we remove the 2 who died in a house fire and 1 the one who got smoked by a drunk driver on 495)
NC had 1106 new cases on 9/15 and 51 deaths. If that was a Venn-Diagram, the middle "shared" section of those two would be, more than likely, almost nothing. COVID isn't arsenic poisoning. It doesn't work like "ZOMG, I gots the Roooooooooon...." dead.
It takes time for the disease to ravage the lungs to the point of failure, mess up other vital organs, create blood clots etc etc etc. All the mechanisms that ultimately lead to a person's demise. Nick Cordero died of what, strokes and sepsis after 90 days in the ICU?
Now, if your point wasn't as I interpreted it above, please state so. But it seemed like you were saying "MA had 599 cases on 9/19 and 26 deaths, NC had 1229 cases on 9/19 and 28 deaths, MA is monkeying with their numbers because we would have waaaaay more deaths here because we had almost three times the cases for the same time period" which, if is what you meant, I think misses the entire lag point...because like HIV/AIDS, COVID doesn't kill you. Something it causes (strokes, organ failure, Pneumonia, Sepsis blah blah blah) are what does and those, depending on how unhealthy you are to begin with, take time to manifest.
I know there are deaths that show up from months ago, but I think it's a few here and there. Wayland probably has the data. But MA has been in very good shape for about four months now. It seems unlikely that the typical time from admission to death is 3 or 4 months. Maybe I'm wrong.
It would be helpful to know the average time from admission to death.
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