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Looking for some intelligent and objective feedback on whether or not the election this fall with either a Democrat or Republican presidential victory will have any impact at all on the real estate market in the US.
Interest rates for mortgages seem to be about as low as they could practically be so excluding any changes in interest rates, could the election have any noticeable impact on real estate sales due to subjective perceptions of where the economy might go, in either a good or bad way.
And factoring in that a Sanders victory would cause some unpredictability along with a Trump victory causing some organized chaos in the sense if he wins, it will be the first time in a while that someone from the outside of the political elite managed to fight their way into an exclusive club. I'm also assuming a Clinton or Cruz victory would maintain the existing status quo in some if not all areas of the economy.
That is a VERY good question. I often remark to my clients that it seems housing remains fairly stable 1 to 2 years out from a presidential election because neither side wants to get blamed for anything bad happening. The interest rates continue to astound me. I did hear from the NAR guy in DC that there would be a rate increase in April 2016 however we've yet to see it. In fact they have gone down slightly according to one of my favorite mortgage brokers here.
The low rates are sure feeding the buyers right now that's certain. And, re-fi's as well.
It may be difficult have have this discussion without heated politics taking over.
Rates are on automatic pilot (if you count Fed manipulation) - they want higher rates, they just keep getting stopped in their tracks. If you look at the history of when rates dropped, you would be inclined to say, it was Obama's election, when it was really TARP I & II (December 2008 & May 2009) and easing by the Fed. Generally in times of inflation and spending, rates rise. Right now, spending + inflation would be catastrophic (IMHO) for the housing market. I do not think we can support increased housing prices until incomes also rise. Many of our young adults are shut out of the work force, why so many are still home, and most/many burdened with student loans they can't pay ( our next national crisis).
I tend to believe those that spend, will create higher taxes in the long run = worse for housing.
Who knows any more? We saw the slight of hand with FHA insurance and saw the program totally decimated. Recent history makes it hard to predict the future.
Hillary will win the presidency unless she dies unexpectedly. So plan with that in mind. It would basically be an extension of the Obama presidency, more or less. So don't anticipate any particularly large changes to laws that would affect the economy.
Hillary will win the presidency unless she dies unexpectedly. So plan with that in mind. It would basically be an extension of the Obama presidency, more or less. So don't anticipate any particularly large changes to laws that would affect the economy.
Because of the pent up demand for housing that resulted from the 2008 deep recession, the Fed and the Treasury no doubt still feel the need to facilitate the building of more homes. Once demand eases it will be a different story. But for now I would suspect real estate financing will remain the same. Low mortgage rates, special (sustainable) programs, etc. Certainly, high demand is localized, but much of that demand is based on people needing to move to where the jobs are, so that is the demand level we need to watch.
Being a good president will be, as always, a balancing act, balancing the needs of the drivers of the economy (working people in the US) with being a part of a global economy.
The housing market is different from the stock market. Stock buyers might react positively or negatively to an election and drive the share prices up/down short term; housing generally don't do that. Real estate reacts to real events (usually the economy), not rumors or emotions.
To answer your question, the election is not going to have one iota on housing. But if the elected put in place some really stupid policy that drives the economy down, then it will have a real effect on housing; and vice versa.
The housing market is different from the stock market. Stock buyers might react positively or negatively to an election and drive the share prices up/down short term; housing generally don't do that. Real estate reacts to real events (usually the economy), not rumors or emotions.
To answer your question, the election is not going to have one iota on housing. But if the elected put in place some really stupid policy that drives the economy down, then it will have a real effect on housing; and vice versa.
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since both "front runners" are pretending to be "anti establishment", I'd expect both of them to talk the economy into a fairly hairy recession right after the election. Hillary might attempt to continue kicking the can down the road a few more years, but with congress split, she'd be even less-effective than Obama at getting anything done. She couldn't sell dollar bills for a quarter to a red congress- they're both intent on mutually-assured destruction. Interest rates stay the same or lower & housing tanks for at least a year no matter who wins.
since both "front runners" are pretending to be "anti establishment", I'd expect both of them to talk the economy into a fairly hairy recession right after the election. Hillary might attempt to continue kicking the can down the road a few more years, but with congress split, she'd be even less-effective than Obama at getting anything done. She couldn't sell dollar bills for a quarter to a red congress- they're both intent on mutually-assured destruction. Interest rates stay the same or lower & housing tanks for at least a year no matter who wins.
I'm going to focus on Hillary because she is the only front runner as far as I'm concern.
Contrary to partisan cable news, Hillary actually has many Republican allies during her term as Senator. One of the funny thing is that these Republicans would go on Fox News and say vile things about her but behind the scene they are drafting bills with her, attending prayer groups together, or just hanging out with her. The Atlantic reported that Karl Rove tried to put a stop to his fellow Republicans collaboration with Hillary and it fell on deaf ears. Many Republicans on Capital Hill like her, but they will never say it out loud.
I don't understand your rationale. Talk is not going to tank housing. Housing only reacts to real tangible events like big job loss, etc. Pharma stocks will react to Hillary talking about reigning in drugs but housing is not going to care if Hillary talks about reigning in housing prices. Because housing is a necessity, a couple with a baby on the way is not going to put off buying a house just because Hillary said something.
Likewise, the economy (also unlike the stock market) is not going to tank just because the president say something. Housing tracks the economy, and both are only affected by meaningful events.
The President does not control interest rate hike. Regardless, we all know it is going up in the long term.
I actually think Hillary will be very good for the economy, so it will be good for housing. But our economy are still suspectible to external events like Chinese economy slow down, etc. I don't think this next President alone is going to tank the economy, more likely something happens outside our borders that affects us.
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