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yes .. i only use that . that is on par with firecalcs 90-95% success rate .
the whole idea of finding a safe withdrawal rate is to have one that failed rarely from the worst of the past .
yeah firecalc has me at like 97% , but when I do fidelity and the "significantly underperforming" test it says I might have problems in the year 2051 when I'm 85 lol
if you do not input the right information in to firecalc about certain things like health insurance inflation or long term care costs then the fidelity calulator is a tougher stress test .
unlike the default in firecalc for inflation which marks up all expenses the same excet a mortgage fidelity inflates healthcare and long term care costs by 5.50% .
healthcare costs actually came down a bit as they were at 7.50% in the old fidelity calculator .
now both are at 5.50% with the rest of the expenses at a lower rate .
fidelity also uses monte carlo simulations to find even worst case scenario's that could have happened but did not .
fidelity at 90% sucess rate is closer to firecalc at 95 .
if you do not input the right information in to firecalc about certain things like health insurance inflation or long term care costs then the fidelity calulator is a tougher stress test .
unlike the default in firecalc for inflation which marks up all expenses the same excet a mortgage fidelity inflates healthcare and long term care costs by 5.50% .
healthcare costs actually came down a bit as they were at 7.50% in the old fidelity calculator .
now both are at 5.50% with the rest of the expenses at a lower rate .
fidelity also uses monte carlo simulations to find even worst case scenario's that could have happened but did not .
fidelity at 90% sucess rate is closer to firecalc at 95 .
the site is a little clunky..and it has my "target asset mix" with 40% bonds , which is insane
i think the big thing is health care...if you get socked with 100s of thousands of healthcare expenses late in life you're screwed unless you have millions....
i use my wexact portfolio in fidelity's calculator , not my target mix . there is no target mix that match what i use .
the target mix is something you can change on the fly if you want to use a target instead of actual .
we pretty much have most of our costs on long term care under control with not only the 3 years insurance but all the perks we get after the insurance runs out
i use my wexact portfolio in fidelity's calculator , not my target mix . there is no target mix that match what i use .
the target mix is something you can change on the fly if you want to use a target instead of actual .
we pretty much have most of our costs on long term care under control with not only the 3 years insurance but all the perks we get after the insurance runs out
I do put in my actual, but I just find it peculiar that a target model is 40% bonds...anyway...thank you for your input...
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Yes, ran many Fidelity Scenarios yesterday with a 'private-rep'... Got what I paid for (very little)
quite conservative and the Target models are NOT acceptable to anyone with a 2+2 mentality of "Where-do-they-want-to-put-my-money?"
Look elsewhere, turn over the stones. So many people just take a 30,000ft pass at the Fund / ETF holdings and jump to conclusions.
Gotta spend 20 minutes digging. It will be worth it, if you know what you are digging for (Many don't. thus the 'target models')
I hammered the Fidelity Rep on WHY he would use such a model, and who on earth is invested that way? Apparently ALL of his clients and himself, as he knew nothing about digging deeper, it was all of 10 seconds away under his mouse finger. He had only been a 'senior / retirement Financial Advisor' for 16 yrs, so a bit green I guess...
We came up with some sample portfolios that were more representative. The default "significantly below average" returns still kept us well in the black (and green). But I hope to not get STUCK there!
the target models should be close , based on your actual holdings OR WHAT YOU TOLD FIDELITY IN YOUR ACCOUNT QUESTIONNAIRE AS TO WHAT KIND OF INVESTOR YOU ARE ..
it then picks a model close enough to your own as far as conservative -middle of the road or aggressive .
the numbers are then calculated off the target model which should give fairly close results .
however if you use funds or investments that ibbotson data can't identify as to type or class or is mis-classed than it is classified as other . other cannot be identified in the model .
a perfect example of what can happen is take a fund like fidelity strategic real return .
it invests in commodity index's , reit income ,inflation-proof security's and floaingt rate loans .
because of the way mutual funds have to invest in commodity's they have to do it in a way that they use bonds to manipulate getting the futures contracts .
so while that fund is pretty far from being a bond fund it is classified as a bond fund .
i like the fidelity planner the best and while their conservative model is a bit more conservative than i am it is still close enough to ball park the results .
remember nooooooooooooo investment is exactly like the same investment in the past , not even index's . an s&p index is very different today than it was in 1926 as an example . there were no gold investments , reits or any other types of investments in any stress testing in the worst case scenario's other than the s&p 500 and 5 year gov't bonds in bill bengen's work or the s&p and intermediate term corporate bonds in the trinity .
so what you own ,regardless will end up being different
It's best to be conservative. I've always put very low return.
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