San Antonio Existing Median Home Price Falls 7% in 2008 - Will 2009 Appraisals Drop? (Dallas: sales, houses)

[Steel Man]

Read the article about San Antonio existing median home price falling 7% from $150,700 (Dec 07) to $139,900 (Dec 08). I wonder if our 2009 appraisals will reflect this decrease or at least stay the same?

S.A. home-price fall is biggest in decade (http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/real_estate/SA_home-price_fall_is_biggest_in_decade.html - broken link)

[ryneone]

Originally Posted by Steel Man

Read the article about San Antonio existing median home price falling 7% from $150,700 (Dec 07) to $139,900 (Dec 08). I wonder if our 2009 appraisals will reflect this decrease or at least stay the same?

S.A. home-price fall is biggest in decade (http://www.mysanantonio.com/business/real_estate/SA_home-price_fall_is_biggest_in_decade.html - broken link)

You have to look at the house sold. Looks like the lower end homes are the ones moving the most right know. So while the prices might not be dropping the lower homes are the only homes really selling right now.

[TexasWeatherman]

Originally Posted by ryneone

You have to look at the house sold. Looks like the lower end homes are the ones moving the most right know. So while the prices might not be dropping the lower homes are the only homes really selling right now.

Yes, and home prices never actually increased in San Antonio in the early to mid 2000s. Only the higher end houses were moving.

[hello13685]

I choked on my coffee this morning when I read (the pure honesty of) that headline. The most interesting part of the article was where they interviewed one of the "experts" who had just finished an SA Board of Realtors rah rah convention in which they stated that SA was completely stable. I'm sorry, but how could the SA Board of Realtors rep claim to be "surprised" by these numbers... by a significant decrease in the very market he is claiming to be an expert in??? I call it denial, and there's definitely a lot of that to go around! I do certainly hope that tax appraisals are lowered to compensate for this, as I don't like the idea of people paying more than they should on their depreciating assets.

[ged_782]

I'm going to save that article in case BCAD assesses my home at a higher value for what would probably be seven or eight years in a row. Since BCAD assessments supposedly are as of January 1 of a given year, I would expect appraisals this year to reflect the December statistics quoted in the article. It would be interesting to see if the article carries any weight in an appraisal protest.

[Paka]

I think the information that needs to be taken into consideration here is they are quoting MEDIAN home prices...this is where location, location, location comes into play in the market for price stability or gains.

Using Zillow our homes have appreciated $1,500 in the past 30 days for the smaller one and $6,000 for the larger one based on comp sales in their areas. They base these gains/losses on SALES that have closed in that neighborhood/area, vs LISTING price someone is asking (and might never get because it is unrealistic a price for the area). Would this be the same if we owned homes in other areas of SA...who knows, maybe not. But for right now, our locations are serving us VERY well with price stability.

Again, there ARE 1-2 Million dollar house sitting on the market right now in SA that have been there a while, and are HUGE factors in showing price reductions....most of their price "cuts" are more than the average selling price of a home here. If you have to ask $500K LESS to move your McMansion, you have just squewed the stats for everyone...including those owning $70K homes.

[dweej]

Originally Posted by Paka

I think the information that needs to be taken into consideration here is they are quoting MEDIAN home prices...this is where location, location, location comes into play in the market for price stability or gains.

Using Zillow our homes have appreciated $1,500 in the past 30 days for the smaller one and $6,000 for the larger one based on comp sales in their areas. They base these gains/losses on SALES that have closed in that neighborhood/area, vs LISTING price someone is asking (and might never get because it is unrealistic a price for the area). Would this be the same if we owned homes in other areas of SA...who knows, maybe not. But for right now, our locations are serving us VERY well with price stability.

Again, there ARE 1-2 Million dollar house sitting on the market right now in SA that have been there a while, and are HUGE factors in showing price reductions....most of their price "cuts" are more than the average selling price of a home here. If you have to ask $500K LESS to move your McMansion, you have just squewed the stats for everyone...including those owning $70K homes.

Tried to rep you for this Paka, but I guess I have to spread it around...

[hello13685]

I believe that you are wrong, Paka. The reason that they report the median price (and not the average, or mean, price) is that the median is the most reliable measure of central tendency when a data distribution is skewed (as it is with housing). In other words, a median figure is NOT susceptible to the McMansion vs. $70,000 price disparities that you cite. Those types of disparities with "outliers" influence averages (or means). That's why only medians are reported. I'm a statistician, so I'm just sayin'

This should all be very interesting as it unwinds. This article bring us to the second stage of San Antonio housing denial. When will the others sink in?

Stage 1: Housing declines are hitting the rest of the coutry (but SA is different)!
Stage 2: Housing declines are hitting San Antonio, but not my neighborhood! (It's different in my part of town.)
Stage 3: Housing declines have hit my street (but my house is different)!
Stage 4: R.I.P.

[Eleanor Rigby]

Over here in the Alamo Heights/Olmos Park/Terrell Hills triangle, we are waiting for housing Armageddon, ie, the day that AT&T's relo company starts drastically cutting the prices on the houses being vacated by executives moving to Dallas. When that happens, that is going to lead to a much needed pricing correction. In the long term, it's going to benefit the area, because when starter homes are going for $400,000 you know there's a problem. However, it's going to be disastrous in the short term for everyone who has a home on the market.

Stage 1: Housing declines are hitting the rest of the coutry (but SA is different)!
Stage 2: Housing declines are hitting San Antonio, but not my neighborhood! (It's different in my part of town.)
Stage 3: Housing declines have hit my street (but my house is different)!
Stage 4: R.I.P.

I love it! That's exactly right.

[dweej]

Originally Posted by Eleanor Rigby

Over here in the Alamo Heights/Olmos Park/Terrell Hills triangle, we are waiting for housing Armageddon, ie, the day that AT&T's relo company starts drastically cutting the prices on the houses being vacated by executives moving to Dallas. When that happens, that is going to lead to a much needed pricing correction. In the long term, it's going to benefit the area, because when starter homes are going for $400,000 you know there's a problem.

Gosh, for my personal benefit, I hope you're right....we would be on the receiving end of the lower prices if that does happen and we'd love to be able to consider more options in the closer-in neighborhoods . I guess only time will tell...