Tesla sales in San Francisco area (San Diego, Bakersfield: 2014, home, neighborhoods)

[PacoMartin]

California New Car Dealers Association Releases Third Quarter Auto Outlook NOVEMBER 7, 2022. The first column is 3Q 2022 and the second column is 3Q 2021 and the list stops at 10,000 vehicles registered for the quarter in 2022.

1. 63,662 Toyota 83,384
2. 42,650 Tesla 32,165
3. 31,748 Ford 27,362
4. 29,702 Chevrolet 27,142
5. 24,649 Honda 52,066
6. 21,542 Kia 20,295
7. 19,551 Mercedes 16,519
8. 16,679 Hyundai 17,431
9. 15,743 Subaru 16,485
10. 15,182 BMW 16,112
11. 14,025 Nissan 20,733
12. 13,027 Lexus 14,610
13. 11,643 Jeep 14,223

25,323 Battery Electric Vehicles from brands other than Tesla

I am amazed that Tesla sales are so far ahead of Ford, Chevy, Honda, Kia, and Mercedes. Also that Tesla is responsible for 62.7% of the BEV registrations in California (3Q 2022). With the number of EV models being released, I would have thought there would be more in-roads into the BEV market.

For those people who live in upper-middle class neighborhoods, does it feel like everyone is purchasing a Tesla?

Also for those people who drive a RWD Tesla model 3 for long trips (max range = 272 miles). My back of the envelope calculations suggest that you could easily drive over 500 miles with two recharging stops. I figure your initial leg would go from fully charged down to 10% then the next two recharging periods you fill up to 80% and stop again when down to 10%
244.8 mi 90%
190.4 mi 70% recharge stop 1
190.4 mi 70% recharge stop 2
625.6 mi

But I used a planning tool called "A Better Route Planner" which suggested that back of the envelope calculation was way too opimisic as many as 4 intermediate recharging stops on a 500 mile drive from San Francisco to San Diego. The software suggested stops at these intervals:

• 149 mi recharge stop 1
• 116 mi recharge stop 2
• 81 mi recharge stop 3
• 75 mi recharge stop 4
• 83 mi final drive
• 504 mi

• San Francisco, CA, United States
• Firebaugh, CA Supercharger [Tesla]
• Bakersfield Supercharger [Tesla]
• Castaic, CA Supercharger [Tesla]
• Irvine, CA - Culver Drive Supercharger [Tesla]
• San Diego, CA, United States

504 mile total driving range and 9 hours of driving time + charging time (53 minutes)

So which is more realistic? Two stops or Four stops to drive from San Francisco to San Diego?

[MechAndy]

Heck I don’t even like using the services on the other side of the freeway.
Adding a couple extra hours for charging on a long drive would be brutally painful.
I refuse to do that and I’m retired with no obligations.

EV’s would be fine for around town and regular long Bay Area or other large city work commutes.
If you could home brew your own solar for them so you are no longer paying a fuel bill that would make them very desirable.

Anyone thinking that these would be great for long road trips are fooling themselves or not being honest.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by MechAndy

Heck I don’t even like using the services on the other side of the freeway.
Adding a couple extra hours for charging on a long drive would be brutally painful.
I refuse to do that and I’m retired with no obligations.

EV’s would be fine for around town and regular long Bay Area or other large city work commutes.
If you could home brew your own solar for them so you are no longer paying a fuel bill that would make them very desirable.

Anyone thinking that these would be great for long road trips are fooling themselves or not being honest.

A medical courier who, delivered medical supplies from Dallas to Houston daily, managed to rack up 215,000 miles in 364 days He changed spark plugs twice, brake fluid was flushed twice, coolant was changed once, replaced broken lug nuts once, and had 21 oil changes over the course of the 364 days.

With that many grueling hours behind the wheel, it is difficult to imagine recharging time on the road in addition,

[MechAndy]

I wonder how many billable hours would be lost in that situation?
You could probably get a pretty nice boat, car or even a ton of money to further invest if you didn’t have to pay for all those lost hours.

[PacoMartin]

Originally Posted by MechAndy

I wonder how many billable hours would be lost in that situation?

Well for 364 days to accumulate 215,020 miles that is an average of 591 miles/day 7 days a week. Plus the time to change spark plugs twice, flush brake fluid twice, coolant once, replaced and broken lug nuts once, and 21 oil and filter changes. That is no factoring in traffic,

If you add to that schedule 2 hours per day to recharge and drive to the recharging points, plus waiting in line once a while when it is crowded, I don't you crossed the line from human robot to brain dead.

I understand most taxi drivers in China buy the vehicles with the swappable batteries.

[capoeira]

Originally Posted by PacoMartin

504 mile total driving range and 9 hours of driving time + charging time (53 minutes)

So which is more realistic? Two stops or Four stops to drive from San Francisco to San Diego?

Don't forget to add in the time wasted waiting for a charger.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AU_K2NhD_1I

[mattja]

I can't imagine having to stop 4 times for almost an hour total on the way from SF to SD.

I usually stop once at Wheeler Ridge, refill, use the john, grab some snacks and continue. Takes maybe 10 minutes.

[blameyourself]

Originally Posted by mattja

I can't imagine having to stop 4 times for almost an hour total on the way from SF to SD.

I usually stop once at Wheeler Ridge, refill, use the john, grab some snacks and continue. Takes maybe 10 minutes.

San Francisco to San Diego is roughly 500 mileage. Most Teslas will get you approximately 300 miles for charge so not sure where you're getting 4 stops from. The math seems to work out to one charge if you're leaving with a fully charged battery.

[CorporateCowboy]

Originally Posted by MechAndy

Anyone thinking that these would be great for long road trips are fooling themselves or not being honest.

I think you’re fooling yourself to think otherwise relative to the rate of expansion in and of itself as well as NEVI (passed last year). In fact, by the end of this year, Tesla will make its Supercharger network accessible to non-Teslas (as is already the case in Europe).

[mattja]

Originally Posted by blameyourself

San Francisco to San Diego is roughly 500 mileage. Most Teslas will get you approximately 300 miles for charge so not sure where you're getting 4 stops from. The math seems to work out to one charge if you're leaving with a fully charged battery.

Err, OP's post said 4 stops. Did you read it?

And let's not forget, there are mountain ranges to cross to get there. 300 miles is probably for a dry lake bed.