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Old 02-11-2009, 12:16 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
3,435 posts, read 6,988,901 times
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Boys Basketball Update for Feb 11, 2009

(1)Española Valley 91, Taos 44


Española's Donovan Maldonado broke out of a shooting slump with nine 3-pointers as he scored a game-high 27 points to lead the Sundevils to their third straight District 2AAAA win in Edward Medina Gymnasium in Española.

Española (20-4 overall, 5-1 2AAAA) jumped out to a 43-26 lead at the half, then outscored Taos 22-12 in the third. That was followed by a 26-6 advantage in the fourth to close out the game.

Española's Daniel Archuleta had 14 points for the Sundevils, while also Española's Rodney Coles and Fabian Valdez each added 10 as all 12 players scored.

Taos was led by Josh Romero's 14 points, and Alejandro Rodriguez scored 10.
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Old 02-16-2009, 10:53 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
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Northern New Mexico Basketball Predictions for this week..
Espanola Valley Girls will win by 10 on 2/17
Espanola Valley Boys will win by 5 on 2/18

Geeze I hope i'm on the dot!
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Old 02-19-2009, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Los Alamos
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Bradly,

Good call on the BV game last night. Good call on the score margin for the GV game -- just got the teams backwards....

I posted updated mid-week strength ratings just now, includes games through last night. Things don't change much -- Espanola BV still #2 (have ranged from #1 to #4 at various times in the season), LAHS BV at #7, ranged from #6 to #8 through the season. LAGV and Espanola GV are effectively tied, as they have been all season.

Capital BV and Bernalillo BV also strong teams, effectively tied in strength.

For 3A teams, Pojoaque GV is clearly the team to beat. SFIS and St. Mike's GV are also very strong. For the BV teams, St. Mike's, Pojoaque, W Las Vegas and SFIS all strong teams.

The north will be well represented at State this year.

BobW

latest ratings at: NMAA Basketball -- 2008-2009 New Mexico High School Varsity Rankings (http://internet.cybermesa.com/~rwalker/nmhsbb/ - broken link)
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Old 02-20-2009, 12:07 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rwalkernm View Post
Bradly,

Good call on the BV game last night. Good call on the score margin for the GV game -- just got the teams backwards....

I posted updated mid-week strength ratings just now, includes games through last night. Things don't change much -- Espanola BV still #2 (have ranged from #1 to #4 at various times in the season), LAHS BV at #7, ranged from #6 to #8 through the season. LAGV and Espanola GV are effectively tied, as they have been all season.

Capital BV and Bernalillo BV also strong teams, effectively tied in strength.

For 3A teams, Pojoaque GV is clearly the team to beat. SFIS and St. Mike's GV are also very strong. For the BV teams, St. Mike's, Pojoaque, W Las Vegas and SFIS all strong teams.

The north will be well represented at State this year.

BobW

latest ratings at: NMAA Basketball -- 2008-2009 New Mexico High School Varsity Rankings (http://internet.cybermesa.com/~rwalker/nmhsbb/ - broken link)

Thank god Espanola won that one. Close call. Still have you checked out the latest coaches poll? It is Amazing Espanola has cashed in the votes big time, with those big time (14) votes, were pretty much known as a top 5 team in the state by the poll. The loss to Los Alamos would have resulted in a #2 or #3 spot on the bracket, Not going to happen.

Boys and Girls Varsity in Espanola still #1 in the District.
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Old 02-23-2009, 10:50 PM
 
Location: Los Alamos
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Regular season over now, I posted ratings for games through last Saturday. No amazing changes.

BV 4A: (1) Deming, (1) Espanola, (3) Academy, (4) Artesia, (4) Roswell, (6) Los Alamos, (7) Pius, (8) Belen, (9) Capital, (10) Bernalillo.

GV 4A: (1) Pius, (2) Moriarty, (3) Roswell, (4) Kirtland C, (5) Shiprock, (5) Belen, (5) Del Norte, (8) Academy, (9) Deming, (10) Los Alamos, (10) Aztec, (12) Espanola.

BV 3A: (1) Hope, (2) St. Mike's, (5) Pojoaque, (6) SFIS.

GV 3A: (1) Pojoaque, (4) St. Mike's, (6) SFIS.

District tournaments this week, I'll post some mid-week updates on Thursday afternoon.

BobW

NMAA Basketball -- 2008-2009 New Mexico High School Varsity Rankings (http://internet.cybermesa.com/~rwalker/nmhsbb/index.html - broken link)
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Old 02-24-2009, 01:01 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
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You do know that Espanola's Girls are #1 in their District right? They hold the district tournament in Espanola this week sometime i'm not to sure but they are bye until the Championship so anything could happen that could knock of Los Alamos. Either way Espanola's girls could go in the state tournament seeded 7th or 8th.
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Old 02-24-2009, 07:47 AM
 
Location: Los Alamos
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Bradly,

Sure, Espanola girls won district, and will get an automatic slot in the tournament. They are also likely to be seeded higher than Los Alamos, because the second team from a district cannot be placed ahead of the first team, etc.

To go to state with an automatic bid, Espanola girls may not have to win any more games, whereas Los Alamos may have to win 2 (the 2/3 game and the 1/2 game). That's the way the district tournament is designed.

Those constraints do not contribute to the strength evaluations. There are many districts across the state where the strongest team does not finish first. Strength is just one factor in the seeding and invitation consideration. Figuring out who wins a district is straightforward -- figuring out which team is strongest, that's harder, and what the calculations are intended to address.

The strength numbers try to reconcile, as best as possible, all the win-loss records across the state, so that we have the fewest number of "surprising" results, where a stronger team loses to a weaker one. They also try to match the winning score margin, but as we've seen, that winning margin estimate is good to only about 5-7 points (on average) across all games in the state.

We should have a good tournament this year, with teams from northern NM well represented -- note that for the boys, 16 teams will get invited, only one from district 2-4A, and yet in the top ten teams across all of NM-4A, 4 of them are from Espanola's district. Unlikely that all four will get invited, but if the tournament were run on strength only, they would (or should).

BobW
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Old 02-24-2009, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Los Alamos
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Here's a tournament seeding for the girls 4A bracket that honors, in this order -- (1) District Champions get automatic invite, (2) no two teams in the same district play each other in the first round, (3) order of seeding respects order of finish in district, (4) stronger teams seeded higher than weaker teams when possible.

This is not the only solution, and there are many constraints. Things will change as the district tournaments progress, unless everything goes according to form.

Seeds GV 4A: (Seed) Team (strength) [District-finish] {1st round opponent's district}
(1) St. Pius (1031) [6-1] {4}
(2) Moriarty (1027) [5-1] {6}
(3) Kirtland (1023) [1-1] {6}
(4) Roswell (1026) [4-1] {1}
(5) Shiprock (1022) [1-2] {2}
(6) Del Norte (1022) [5-2] {1}
(7) Belen (1022) [6-2] {5}
(8) Deming (1019) [3-1] {2}
(9) Espanola (1016) [2-1] {3}
(10) Academy (1019) [5-3] {6}
(11) Silver (1012) [3-2] {5}
(12) Los Alamos (1016) [2-2] {1}
(13) Aztec (1016) [1-3] {4}
(14) Grants (1011) [6-3] {1}
(15) Volcano Vista (1012) [6-4] {5}
(16) Artesia (1015) [4-2] {6}

Note that at least 2 teams in 4A will get to go to state even though they have overall losing records.

Grants needs to be seeded above Volcano Vista (district finish), but neither can be seeded 16 because Pius is (1) and in the same district. So, Artesia gets pushed down lower than they should be, if strength were the only consideration.

Espanola gets seeded above (stronger) Academy because a first team in district should go ahead of the 3rd team in any other district (my intuition only). Los Alamos must be seeded below Espanola because they finished 2nd in district.

Many will have legitimate issues with inviting Volcano Vista and Grants, with their 1-5 district records. But, the next-place finishers in other districts have pretty uninspiring records also, so I just went with the strength scores.

This is only an example of what considerations come into play when inviting and seeding teams. District tournaments will change things, and seeding committee may have other and better ideas, of course.

BobW
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Old 02-24-2009, 05:18 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM - Summerlin, NV
3,435 posts, read 6,988,901 times
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Well Even if Espanola's Boys lost to Los Alamos for the District title, Los Alamos will NOT be seeded above Espanola. Espanola has been #1 all season long and with that Los Alamos has a tad too many losses. If LA infact beats Espanola, LA will be seeded 4th and Espanola will be seeded 2nd. In parts of the seeding bylaws it mentions even if the #1 seed in the District is defeated and a team with the second best in the district will not be placed on top. The seeding is also based on the Season games not so much the district games. People have continued to say if LA does beat EV they will be on top. That is false. Plus Espanola will be well represented at the seeding meeting on the 1st of march, with that being said Espanola is in control over the #1 seed in the state bracket.
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Old 02-24-2009, 10:45 PM
 
Location: Los Alamos
22 posts, read 75,982 times
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I haven't really looked too closely at the BV 4A situation. If LA beats Espanola in the district tournament, it guarantees LA a spot in the state tournament, but not a higher seed. LA beating Espanola would not make LA's strength score go above Espanola's anyway.

16 teams will go to state and there's only 13 teams with winning records, plus district-champ Academy with their zillion forfeits, so I am pretty sure all the teams that do have winning season records will get an invite to state -- so, LA will certainly go to state, win or lose at the dirstrict tournament, and the only thing the district tournament is going to accomplish is to expose players unnecessarily to getting injured. LA deserves a seed somewhere in the 5-7 range. 4 is too high.

I am not a big fan of the district tournament -- with so many at-large seeds and a 16-team bracket, I don't see that it accomplishes much useful.

Espanola and Deming have been tied for all practical purposes at #1 and #2 in the state for the last half of the season. As a first approximation, it doesn't matter which one gets the first seed and which one the second, as far as I am concerned. I think I'd prefer Espanola to get the #1 seed, or else bradly may not let me post here any more!

BobW
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