Is Sarasota in a bubble (Miami, Naples: layoffs, compensation, safety)

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

People buying distressed properties in the zip codes where Ian hit the hardest will supress prices, but if any homes there are tear downs, they will be replaced with higher cost homes.

The overall impact upon Ian will push prices down for all of SW FLA, but this forum area's prices will increase...only much slower.
imho, single digit increases over prior year for SFH's...but condo's could remain flat, or decline, due to the new concrete remediation escrow laws.

The images of that collapsed condo building in Miami scared condo buyers...hard to erase those images from your mind, once you saw them.

Ft. Myers beach will probably see more hotels, and some high rise condos built in place of these old properties. Probably a lot of hotels.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

Ft. Myers beach will probably see more hotels, and some high rise condos built in place of these old properties. Probably a lot of hotels.

That is sad to hear...I hate high rises along the beaches. I wish the set back for high rises along Florida's coast was >1/2 mile.

[charais]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

That is sad to hear...I hate high rises along the beaches. I wish the set back for high rises along Florida's coast was >1/2 mile.

I agree. That was one of our big complaints about much of the Gulf side--too many high rises. Englewood doesn't have many but I'm sure that will change now. We thinking more central Florida east of Sarasota area

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

That is sad to hear...I hate high rises along the beaches. I wish the set back for high rises along Florida's coast was >1/2 mile.

Yep. Many of the restaurants, and such, older hotels on the beach are being sold to corporations instead of rebuilding because of the costs. Will look like Naples with all the hotels and condos.

These large corps were just waiting for the big one like Ian to hit and swoop in.

That's how they want it. Make FL rental properties and large hotels. I think it was the Orlando area where a large corp bought up most of the houses in a new sib division and turned them all into rentals.

At least in the Venice, Englewood area I doubt we see that. For one the beach erosion. That's why on Manasota Key all those houses for sale and some cheap because of how close the water is to the houses. Major erosion in some of these areas. That would be too risk to build a large hotel on.

I agree the high rises are fugly!

I still don't see why someone would want to live in one, let alone even just rent one. Seems a pain to be up high, have to get in an elevator, haul your stuff up and down, etc. Even if it's just for seasonal rentals. I wouldn't feel safe up high too! No, heights don't bother me, but fire and such.

[1rainman]

They spend millions digging sand from the bottom of the ocean and dumping it on Englewood beach so the beach there is the same as when I was a kid.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by 1rainman

They spend millions digging sand from the bottom of the ocean and dumping it on Englewood beach so the beach there is the same as when I was a kid.

More north you go the more narrow the beach gets, especially around the county line and north of it is very narrow. Main area of Englewood beach Charlotte County usually is pretty wide where most of the parking is.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by alex_hodo

The PRICES of new SF houses all over the Bay area and down to swFL built by major builders,e.g. DR Horton and most others, have been DROPPED significantly ...up to 25 to 30 thousand DOLLARS ! Forget the term "bubble", whose definition seems to have been misused or politicized to *fit* someone's or Company's agenda. Bubble or not, the REALITY is that PRICES have fallen...not even leveled off...they have FALLEN significantly by any objective measure ! In addition, the incentives/brides/add-ons have increased - these are also de facto price corrections. MANY MANY Valuations/equity/prices of existing houses that even were purchased early in 2022/late 2021 are now under water. Wake up people LOL Plus, the FED isn't finished raising rates....duh. The impact is inarguable for anyone who is wide awake. Most educated economists know that "bubbles" can be an amorphous, meaningless term to describe most markets. Also, bubbles can take a LONG time to POP. Bottom line, prices have lost manic exuberance - certainly under the key price segments. That's NOT a NEGATIVE, it's a positive.

Amazing to see the same poster, still using multiple names, still posting the same BS.

Nothing has fallen significantly.

Prices are about 4% down from a year ago and up 30% still over three years.

Here is a representative zip code: 34233. Just look at the graph.

https://www.redfin.com/zipcode/34233/housing-market

New construction here in SWFL is similar. Reduction are in the base prices from the April 2022 peak to February 2022 levels. Lot prices unchanged. Extras cost 20% more. Net is about the same as a year ago.

[MOforthewin]

Around this part something is up. At the market it's about 20 percent slower than last year at around the same time. It's Fridays I'm noticing it's a lot slower. Dec thru Easter usually Fridays have a lot more snowbirds and tourists in the winter months. This month not so much. It's almost like the summer at times on Friday it's slow. I know some of my customers who got flooded out by surge even had to live in their cars because they couldn't find a rental house and hotels were booked up for awhile after Ian as well! A lot of people down here rent just for the season or a couple months. I suspect many of these people simply didn't come here because there is no place to rent! No Ft. Myers beach, Sanibel is also a factor with tourists too. I suspect this coming summer is going to be BRUTAL for my business. Because while summer it's slow there you at least get families on vacation who go to Ft. Myers beach, Sanibel. They will probably go to the Tampa area or the Panhandle instead. Some are saying it will be at least two years before Ft. Myers beach and Sanibel recover.

[MOforthewin]

This guy has a youtube channel and a lot of good videos of post Ian driving around and showing damage. He moved up to Sarasota and did a video on how crappy Ft. Myers is and thinks Sarasota is safer and better.

I do have to agree. Sarasota County in general seems cleaner than Lee County and safer in general, especially compared to Ft. Myers. My business is in Ft. Myers near the hood. Otherwise I really hate going to Ft. Myers in general. Traffic is also terrible in Ft. Myers too. Lots of crime in Ft. Myers you don't hear about.

Like I'd rather go up to Venice, North Port or Sarasota to do something verses Ft. Myers.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDftrLwXn_I

[Sunshine Rules]

Just released from the Sarasota Manatee Board of Realtors:


Yearly Market in 2022

The total number of closed sales across the two counties in 2022 decreased by 23.9 percent to 21,885 sales. For single-family homes, yearly closed sales decreased from 2021 by 26.5 percent to 7,940 sales in Sarasota County and decreased by 19 percent to 6,968 sales in Manatee County. Condo sales decreased by 27 percent to 4,107 sales in Sarasota and decreased by 23 percent to 2,870 sales in Manatee County.

The median sale price for 2022 surpassed the previous record reached in 2021 for both property types across the two-county region. The yearly median price for single-family homes was $493,000 in Sarasota and $520,000 in Manatee County, a year-over-year increase of 24.5 percent and 23.8 percent respectively. For condos, the median price for 2022 increased by 22.2 percent to $385,000 in Sarasota and by 33.2 percent to $346,250 in Manatee County.

“There is still significant buyer demand in our area, but a lot of buyers who were planning on financing their purchase were priced out of the market by sharp increases in prices and interest rates,” added Tresidder. “We anticipate those buyers will re-enter the marketplace when they are able to secure more favorable rates to buy a property.”

According to Dr. Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of REALTORS®, inflation has been dropping over the past six months, and “consumers can expect mortgage rates to soon follow.”

Despite the record high sale prices, the dollar volume in 2022 decreased from 2021 due to fewer yearly sales. Single-family homes brought in $10.2 billion in volume for the two counties, an 8.8 percent decrease from the previous year. The dollar volume of condo sales decreased by 17.6 percent to $3.5 billion.

Cash sales were less prominent in 2022 for single-family homes, accounting for 42 percent of all single-family home sales in the year. However, condo sales experienced a five percent increase from 2021, with 62 percent of condo sales closed with cash offers in 2022.

Foreclosures and short sales only represented 0.3 percent of all closed sales in 2022. In the North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, there were a total of 73 distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) which is a 49.3 percent decrease from the number of distressed sales in 2021.

There was a slight increase in new listings added to the single-family home market in 2022. Across both counties, 19,492 new listings were reported, an increase of less than one percent from 2021. For condos, 8,386 new listings were added to the market which is a 3 percent decrease from 2021.


December Market in 2022

In the last month of 2022, the combined closed sales of all property types in both counties decreased year-over-year by 34 percent to 1,530 sales. For single-family homes, closed sales decreased by 41.9 percent to 486 sales in Sarasota County and by 29.7 percent to 537 sales in Manatee. Condo sales decreased by 33.3 percent to 275 sales in Sarasota and decreased by 24.2 percent to 232 sales in Manatee.

December 2022 reports a year-over-year rise in prices with single-family homes reaching a median price of $505,500 in Sarasota and $507,000 in Manatee County, an increase of 16 percent and 10.2 percent respectively. Condo prices increased by 8.3 percent to $390,000 in Sarasota County and increased by 13.7 percent to $344,475 in Manatee County.

The median time from listing date to contract date was reported at 25 days for single-family homes across both counties, a 257 percent increase from the same month last year. As for condos, the median time to contract is at 19 days, a 171.4 percent increase. This is a large increase from December of 2021 when the median time to contract was at 7 days for both property types across the two-county region.

The month’s supply of inventory in December was 3 months for single-family homes in Manatee County, a 400 percent increase and the largest year-over-year increase this year. In Sarasota County, there was a 2.5-month supply for single-family homes, a 316.7 percent increase. Condos in Sarasota increased by 266.7 percent to 2.2 months while condo supply in Manatee increased by 440 percent to 2.7 months.

At the end of the year, the inventory of all active listings was 4,834 for both property types in the North-Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA, a 235.7 percent increase from last year when the inventory of all active listings was 1,440.


Monthly reports are provided by Florida REALTORS® with data compiled from Stellar MLS. For comprehensive statistics dating back to 2005, visit www.MyRASM.com/statistics.