Sarasota is the 6th most overvalued housing market in FL (Tampa: house, job market)

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

What happens when the house prices go down?


I wonder what's going to happen with used cars, especially with auto makers cracking down on pricing new cars over MSRP.


Like the C8 Corvette. next year when the production is caught up and is back to normal what will those dealers do that bought a lightly used C8 and trying to sell it for 105k when you can order a similar NEW one from the factory for 70k?


The car will either collect dust or the dealer will have to sell it and a pretty good loss.

The Dollar can go down more too, & I'd bet on SW Florida's real estate market moreso than the value of the Dollar, & inflation over the near-term (next 12 months). Even over the next 2 years, experts say inflation will still be high, and home values will stay high. I think after the Nov elections, things will moderate.

Our home went from $550k to $1.1M, so if it goes down to even $750k, I'm fine with that. I don't see that happening though, but I also doubt it will stay over 1 Million.

I read that 30% of New Jersey people 50+ yrs old plan to move to Florida over the next 3 years! OMG..if that's true, & they really do, this real estate market will remain hot.

[Kadonny]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

What happens when the house prices go down?


I wonder what's going to happen with used cars, especially with auto makers cracking down on pricing new cars over MSRP.


Like the C8 Corvette. next year when the production is caught up and is back to normal what will those dealers do that bought a lightly used C8 and trying to sell it for 105k when you can order a similar NEW one from the factory for 70k?


The car will either collect dust or the dealer will have to sell it and a pretty good loss.

Or the dealers read the market and sell their used vehicles before the downturn in values because of the return of new car inventories. They, out of anyone, will have the inside info from the manufacturers as to when they will start to ramp back up production and ultimately delivery of new vehicles to dealer floors. When that happens a smart dealer will rid himself of any used inventory bought at higher prices prior to that, if the dealership really is on top of things.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by Kadonny

Or the dealers read the market and sell their used vehicles before the downturn in values because of the return of new car inventories. They, out of anyone, will have the inside info from the manufacturers as to when they will start to ramp back up production and ultimately delivery of new vehicles to dealer floors. When that happens a smart dealer will rid himself of any used inventory bought at higher prices prior to that, if the dealership really is on top of things.

Dealers and housing can be both priced weird.


Car dealers especially. How you can go to one dealer for the same car and another dealer has it thousands cheaper and offers you thousands more on trade in.


A couple week ago I saw one of those big flat beds with about 9 or 10 C8s on them all wrapped up heading for the Chevy dealer down the road so production must be ramping back up on those.


Dealers were also overpaying for cars like 7 years old just to fill their lots up too. Those junkers will have to go to auction.


What really gets me as a ripoff is places liek Carvana, Carmax. They charge THOUSANDS more than a traditional car lot AND their cars typically have more miles on them. Carmax does their own financing so maybe they're targeting people with bad credit.


When I bought my used Camaro SS back in Sept 2020 I was watching them a lot. That was when the car market was tanked and no one was buying still due to the economy due to the lockdown earlier in the year.


My local lots here in SWFL were far far cheaper than Carvana or Carmax for Camaros and better optioned and far less miles on them.


If I wanted to buy a 2020 left over new 1SS at Jenkins it would have been only about 5k more than a used 1ss at Carmax at the time lol that was 3 years old LOL.

[brianwy]

Originally Posted by wondermint2

I wonder what percent of home sales in Sarasota are for cash. Does anyone have an estimate? If the cash buyers are more in Sarasota compared to other locations - the slowdown due to increased interest rates might be buffered to some extent.

Sarasota market is about 50% cash buyers. Some neighborhoods are as much as 70% cash. This market is definitely not interest rate sensitive. We closed on our house 4 months ago and almost everyone I have met on our street paid cash.

[brianwy]

Originally Posted by MOforthewin

What happens when the house prices go down?


I wonder what's going to happen with used cars, especially with auto makers cracking down on pricing new cars over MSRP.


Like the C8 Corvette. next year when the production is caught up and is back to normal what will those dealers do that bought a lightly used C8 and trying to sell it for 105k when you can order a similar NEW one from the factory for 70k?


The car will either collect dust or the dealer will have to sell it and a pretty good loss.

C8 production won't be caught up next year. They just cut production again at BG again and the 10 largest dealers nationally all have 12 month+ waiting lists. Almost all of these same dealers have stopped taking names for zo6 orders and they haven't even started taking actual orders yet for the car. The zo6 will not be available to buy off a dealer floor at msrp for years.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by brianwy

C8 production won't be caught up next year. They just cut production again at BG again and the 10 largest dealers nationally all have 12 month+ waiting lists. Almost all of these same dealers have stopped taking names for zo6 orders and they haven't even started taking actual orders yet for the car. The zo6 will not be available to buy off a dealer floor at msrp for years.

Cars and homes are going to keep going up because the dollar is dropping in value while hard assets and goods rise in dollars. Think about what a steak cost you last year, or a gallon of gas.

The Euro has gone from .85 to .91 in the past year. That means that our dollar is now worth 93.4 cents compared to the Euro in a year - and the Euro itself has lost value due to inflation.

Gold has risen from $1742 an ounce to $1929, which means that our dollar is worth 90.3 cents compared to gold in a year.

Prices are not going to go down anytime soon, unless we get a recession or depression, which we might.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by brianwy

C8 production won't be caught up next year. They just cut production again at BG again and the 10 largest dealers nationally all have 12 month+ waiting lists. Almost all of these same dealers have stopped taking names for zo6 orders and they haven't even started taking actual orders yet for the car. The zo6 will not be available to buy off a dealer floor at msrp for years.

Must just happened because last I read on the forums late last year Chevy was upping production of them. Even the Camaro they were which Camaro they were skimping because of it's terrible sales.



Any idea what happened with the semi conductors because Chevy was doing everything possible not to cut C8 production and was allocating as much as possible to it.

[beach43ofus]

A neighbor sold her home in 2 hours, without it even being entered onto MLS (multiple listing svc). Realtors now have waiting lists of potential buyers. I don't know the price yet, & its possible that it will never be made public.

The demand is still hot, and the supply is still extremely tight, so prices are still rising, but much more slowly now based upon what the builders publish on their web sites.

Seems to me that our area was grossly under-valued, & has now almost caught up to Florida's East coast, not including Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach.

New construction is still progressing at a snails pace, due to suply chain disruptions. The # of new homes under construction is maybe 1/5th of what I saw at the pre-covid peak.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

A neighbor sold her home in 2 hours, without it even being entered onto MLS (multiple listing svc). Realtors now have waiting lists of potential buyers. I don't know the price yet, & its possible that it will never be made public.

The demand is still hot, and the supply is still extremely tight, so prices are still rising, but much more slowly now based upon what the builders publish on their web sites.

Seems to me that our area was grossly under-valued, & has now almost caught up to Florida's East coast, not including Dade, Broward, or Palm Beach.

New construction is still progressing at a snails pace, due to suply chain disruptions. The # of new homes under construction is maybe 1/5th of what I saw at the pre-covid peak.

I see what you are seeing too.

If a home is priced at market, it sells in a day. If priced above market, it sits until the price is reduced. See 2677 Butterfly Jasmine Trl, Sarasota, FL 34240 and 8300 Shooting Star Rd, Sarasota, FL 34241

I think construction starts have picked up to 50% since builders have stopped building semi-custom homes, but completions are still at a snails pace due to shortages in mechanical and electrical parts.

The rate of price increases was 42% year-on-year, but is now about 18% by my calculations.

I agree that the area was grossly undervalued, and is now almost caught up to the rest of Florida. If the job market remains hot in Tampa, and rentals stay tight, it will continue to rise.

[joshan]

In my area people are listing at market and seem to be averaging 10-15% over ask in the final sales price. I had a realtor knock on my door last weekend and state she had 3 cash buyers for my house.... its not for sale.