Sarasota is the 6th most overvalued housing market in FL (Tampa: apartment complex, mover)

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by Trying941

I see what you are seeing too.

If a home is priced at market, it sells in a day. If priced above market, it sits until the price is reduced. See 2677 Butterfly Jasmine Trl, Sarasota, FL 34240 and 8300 Shooting Star Rd, Sarasota, FL 34241

I think construction starts have picked up to 50% since builders have stopped building semi-custom homes, but completions are still at a snails pace due to shortages in mechanical and electrical parts.

The rate of price increases was 42% year-on-year, but is now about 18% by my calculations.

I agree that the area was grossly undervalued, and is now almost caught up to the rest of Florida. If the job market remains hot in Tampa, and rentals stay tight, it will continue to rise.

Further down the coast here in swfl it seems to have cooled a bit. Realtor has a booth at the market and pulls houses up to show.

Naples especially. The houses for about a million dollars for example have price reductions and stay on the market longer, especially multi million dollar ones. Imo way overprices then i see 100k slashed.

Tampa is a lot different to compare to due to it being a major city and all the jobs.

Houses are not going in a day around here that much anymore.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by Trying941

I see what you are seeing too.

If a home is priced at market, it sells in a day. If priced above market, it sits until the price is reduced. See 2677 Butterfly Jasmine Trl, Sarasota, FL 34240 and 8300 Shooting Star Rd, Sarasota, FL 34241

I think construction starts have picked up to 50% since builders have stopped building semi-custom homes, but completions are still at a snails pace due to shortages in mechanical and electrical parts.

The rate of price increases was 42% year-on-year, but is now about 18% by my calculations.

I agree that the area was grossly undervalued, and is now almost caught up to the rest of Florida. If the job market remains hot in Tampa, and rentals stay tight, it will continue to rise.

Okay, maybe I spoke too soon. I just might be dead wrong.

Neal just raised this house $135,000 today to $1,181,990 from $1,046,990. It is only 2,558 sqft, or $462 a sqft.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...37169326_zpid/

Let’s see if it sells.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by Trying941

Okay, maybe I spoke too soon. I just might be dead wrong.

Neal just raised this house $135,000 today to $1,181,990 from $1,046,990. It is only 2,558 sqft, or $462 a sqft.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2...37169326_zpid/

Let’s see if it sells.

Geez, I bought a new-build 3.5 yrs ago for $189/sq ft.. & I'm much closer to the beach than the home in the link above. The drive all the way across Fruitville then over the bridge to Lido has got to be 30+ minutes.

I've got <15 minutes to the Venice Pier.

I think there's better value in re-sales for buyers now than new construction...even after the bidding ends.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

Geez, I bought a new-build 3.5 yrs ago for $189/sq ft.. & I'm much closer to the beach than the home in the link above. The drive all the way across Fruitville then over the bridge to Lido has got to be 30+ minutes.

I've got <15 minutes to the Venice Pier.

I think there's better value in re-sales for buyers now than new construction...even after the bidding ends.

Yea. I live in Punta Gord and to drive to Englewood beach is about 40 mins due to the stoplights and driving around the harbor.

New construction prices are a joke! Also more heavily tied to the building materials cost as well which keep going up and up.

You live in a good location. I actually prefer Venice Beach, by the pier because there is a ton of parking and always seems less crowded than Englewood Beach on the Charlotte County side. Especially in the summer when school gets out. Parking sucks. For 1 million you can just get a house in Collier County that's nicer.

I think they also factor in amenities like golf course, club house, pools, shuffleboard, Tennis Courts, etc. A lot of these places with these homes that are 700k and up have all this stuff.

Personally I don't want it! I don't play golf, I don't play tennis or pickeball, etc and I'd rather go to the beach than the pool.

My development has all this stuff minus golf. They keep raising the fees for everything to cover this and other than the pool and club house not many people use the stuff. The clubhouse they have off duty deputy for security at night because of kids and people bringing in non residents.

We also pay a lot of fees for the security gate which is always broken half the time! I think that's the biggest rip off in FL is these expensive gates and the companies that run them. On this forum I see a lot of complaints about these gates.

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by LilliesOfTheFields

Better Value? Those older houses are certainly built twice as good as the junk for 550-700 right now. Pure garbage for the price, but cosmetically done well, otherwise an inferior product thrown together for all of those eager, but fairly dumb buyers these days with all the newcomers. Lousy floated concrete foundations, cheap roof trusses, simple concrete block-stucco walls, really cheap treated foundation plates, cheap furring strips, and in some cases they are using thinner gypsum wallboard instead of standard 1/2 to 5/8 thicknesses, cheap Chinese electrical outlets/wiring, fixtures, fans, lousy but good looking kitchen cabinets/hardware, cheap Chinese wire closet fixtures/hangers, cheap Chinese-made fake nickel interior door handles/locks/hinges (but look good), and the cheapest insulation made but meets code, and the cheapest USA-made bulk paint and caulk imaginable, most all of the recessed or fake LED recessed lights and/or cans are cheap Chinese as well. Even the switch[plates on/off plastic wall plates are pure junk. All of the drainage PVC water supply pipes are also cheap and more brittle Chinese.


Lots of older houses are much better built and have a higher value...at least in materials

Couldn't have made a better post! When we moved back to fl in 2015 i wish my parents bought this older house in deep creek. Had a pool, probably built early 80s but so much better. The carpeting and appliances were never upgraded so they didnt want to rip all that out. Great condition but very dated house. Seemed like it was a very old person who owned it. Died and kids selling it.

[NSHL10]

I was wondering when a new Shecky character would arise. Checks all the boxes: hates folks from NY and California and even posted in the Alabama forum

[MOforthewin]

Originally Posted by NSHL10

I was wondering when a new Shecky character would arise. Checks all the boxes: hates folks from NY and California and even posted in the Alabama forum

Most dislike New England and California because they're liberal and ruined their states.

[Trying941]

Originally Posted by NSHL10

I was wondering when a new Shecky character would arise. Checks all the boxes: hates folks from NY and California and even posted in the Alabama forum

Yup, the Grinch has metamorphosed.

The shame is this incarnation has transmogrified one of my favorite artists - Dierks Bentley! Love "Somewhere on a Beach".

[SKinMD]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

The Dollar can go down more too, & I'd bet on SW Florida's real estate market moreso than the value of the Dollar, & inflation over the near-term (next 12 months). Even over the next 2 years, experts say inflation will still be high, and home values will stay high. I think after the Nov elections, things will moderate.

Our home went from $550k to $1.1M, so if it goes down to even $750k, I'm fine with that. I don't see that happening though, but I also doubt it will stay over 1 Million.

I read that 30% of New Jersey people 50+ yrs old plan to move to Florida over the next 3 years! OMG..if that's true, & they really do, this real estate market will remain hot.

I'm a Realtor in Maryland and don't mistake our area for yours. Being close to DC, while not inflation proof, this area often does not struggle as much as other areas of the country as so many are Fed Gov or contractor to FG employees.

That said, I wonder about FL demand. Don't see a collapse, for obvious reasons. I mean, who wouldn't want to live/retire there? Always some party poopers in any group, but it is a stunningly desirable area. However, COVID & all of its horrors brought forward demand at an astronomical rate. Between older people saying, 'That's it, I am done with this BS and now have ZITS from the mask (my husband, for one!) and I've not had zits for 45 years!" Others couldn't stand the restrictions for kids- esp. NYC folks- so families with younger kids also made the move. Think this was a unicorn event for demand with so many unprecedented happenings driving people out of their home state down to the freedom state.

Now, with the stock market having a horrendous start to 2022, and loads of questions regarding when it will recover, there are potential retirees who will continue to work, until they get a larger SS check by holding off and thus, their 401K's will last longer. (Husband & I for 2) Those who are lucky enough to get fully funded pensions win.

Have received 'sale' emails from Neal Communities and am on a drip for Sarasota down to North Port. Have seen price reductions, including listings which had bumped up the listing price two months ago, and now have reduced to lower than the initial offering.

Your point about lumber and other building material prices is valid, and on some level, should provide a floor for prices. One thing I've noticed, is the new homes don't have much room to move on price, but it appears the resales aren't overreaching like they were six months ago. Then, buying new was the most logical action for us, provided we could get the minimum of our wants within our max. price. Now, especially for those who are handy and/or have a good eye for design, I'm seeing better opportunities in resale.

My big question though is what about that crappy Chinese drywall which was making people sick? Tonight, I saw 2 or 3 resales with likely very elderly owners, or younger heirs, with air filter machines next to a chair. Were all those 2000's home remediated?

Regards.

[Hbcapital]

I lived in northern VA for 35 years and agree the DC area is mostly recession proof as housing prices fell only 15-20% in 2008-09 vs the 50% drop in FL. When we bought our first house in VA during the 1990-91 recession caused by the first gulf war, things were different. The house we bought, only 7 years old and in fine shape, had been sitting on the market for 9 months as nothing was moving in those days. We ended buying it for 25% under what a comparable house was selling for a year earlier.

I wondered how this area had done during the 1990-91 recession and found Case Shiller data from Tampa (close enough). To my surprise, median prices only fell 3% during that period from 82.5k to 80. They stayed flat at 80k until 1995 before turning up.

So the question to me is which scenario is most likely going forward as to the trajectory of housing prices in this area. In 2007 there were inventory of more than 10,000 homes in Sarasota county, about a 20-25 month supply. So I can see why we had such a big drop back then. With current inventory at 1200 homes, about a 1.2-1.5 month supply, this area is well insulated from a large price decline, even with the surge in interest rates. IMHO