City-County merger talk--is it just talk? (Oakland, Paris: transplants, homes, neighborhood)

[Provelkative]

I'm really confused on what the situation is at this point. I don't know what's separate, what's together, what services people are paying for and what services people are getting. City residents are taxed more to pay for services to the county? And if county and city are merged or whatever word you want to use then city tax goes away but we remain independent?

[marigolds6]

The City has income tax, sales tax, and property tax supporting city government. They also have sales tax and property tax supporting "county" government, which are the city implementations of county government functions.

The County has sales tax and property tax supporting county government.

The Missouri constitution does not allow any city in a first class county with a population over 750,000 to have an income tax. This matters if the city dissolves its "county" government and rejoins St Louis County.

After rejoining, the city would have only a sales tax and a property tax to support city government. The income tax would go away. The "county" government portion of sales tax and property tax would go to St Louis County instead of the city. Since the income tax goes, and St Louis County has lower sales tax and property tax than the "county" portion of St Louis city government, city residents would see a pretty big drop in their overall taxes.

St Louis County would get a big influx in tax revenue because they would receive all of the "county" sales and property tax from the city (though at lower rates than the city charges now). It would be a fairly big increase in revenue relative to the increase in expenditures necessary to provide county government services to the city.

[STLviaMSP]

"The central corridor is doing great. The North Side, though, is definitely in decline. And not the "crime ridden" decline most former North City residents living in St Charles normally decry. Actual decline, where that area is simply dying out, losing businesses and buildings until there is just blocks and blocks of green space.
South City is a complete toss up. Some areas are doing spectacular, some have serious problems. But, even the serious problem areas are trying to fight back to improve."

South city will probably be fine. There is a critical mass of students and professionals and the affluence that brings in all the marquee neighborhoods, enough so that the connecting areas between them will probably fill in this decade with higher income residents and greater general neighborhood investment and upkeep and probably a sharply lower tolerance for nuisance crime. The harder areas in SoSTL are the areas where older residents are dying off, potentially leaving their property at the mercy of slumlords. North City is a different beast. The Northside project may revive the emptied out part east of Grand, but who knows what the master plan really looks like. It is said that McKee has yet to produce a definitive plan for any of the area inside the project's footprint. Long term (30 years), the city will revive neighborhood-by-neighborhood and once again be the region's social and economic focal point.

The real tipping point will be when the city's white population surpasses its black population - which by all indications it will this decade. I think that will have a big effect on how the surrounding region and even the rest of the state itself perceives the city. Right now, it is easy for white and affluent people in the surrounding towns to dismiss all the good things happening in the city because the words "poor" and "black" still characterize more of the city's residents than any other words. When that changes, several generations' worth of how to think about St. Louis will no longer apply. The city is already seeing a lot of very major investment. When this demographic shift occurs, it will be a big and unavoidable news item that will force a lot of the metro to look at the city with fresh eyes, perhaps for the first time ever, and that will result in even more investment. The side effect will be that a lot of the us versus them of city versus county will evaporate in that instant - the question will no longer be relevant. Who is us? Who is them? It's ugly, and it's dumb that race plays such a big part in our regional politics, but it absolutely does - think about the Normandy - FH transfers - and that is how I think the merger will happen in about a decade.

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by STLviaMSP

"The central corridor is doing great. The North Side, though, is definitely in decline. And not the "crime ridden" decline most former North City residents living in St Charles normally decry. Actual decline, where that area is simply dying out, losing businesses and buildings until there is just blocks and blocks of green space.
South City is a complete toss up. Some areas are doing spectacular, some have serious problems. But, even the serious problem areas are trying to fight back to improve."

South city will probably be fine. There is a critical mass of students and professionals and the affluence that brings in all the marquee neighborhoods, enough so that the connecting areas between them will probably fill in this decade with higher income residents and greater general neighborhood investment and upkeep and probably a sharply lower tolerance for nuisance crime. The harder areas in SoSTL are the areas where older residents are dying off, potentially leaving their property at the mercy of slumlords. North City is a different beast. The Northside project may revive the emptied out part east of Grand, but who knows what the master plan really looks like. It is said that McKee has yet to produce a definitive plan for any of the area inside the project's footprint. Long term (30 years), the city will revive neighborhood-by-neighborhood and once again be the region's social and economic focal point.

The real tipping point will be when the city's white population surpasses its black population - which by all indications it will this decade. I think that will have a big effect on how the surrounding region and even the rest of the state itself perceives the city. Right now, it is easy for white and affluent people in the surrounding towns to dismiss all the good things happening in the city because the words "poor" and "black" still characterize more of the city's residents than any other words. When that changes, several generations' worth of how to think about St. Louis will no longer apply. The city is already seeing a lot of very major investment. When this demographic shift occurs, it will be a big and unavoidable news item that will force a lot of the metro to look at the city with fresh eyes, perhaps for the first time ever, and that will result in even more investment. The side effect will be that a lot of the us versus them of city versus county will evaporate in that instant - the question will no longer be relevant. Who is us? Who is them? It's ugly, and it's dumb that race plays such a big part in our regional politics, but it absolutely does - think about the Normandy - FH transfers - and that is how I think the merger will happen in about a decade.

I'd be curious to know what data you are looking at to project the city's white population surpassing it's black population in the next 10 years?

[Old Trafford]

Originally Posted by MUTGR

I'd be curious to know what data you are looking at to project the city's white population surpassing it's black population in the next 10 years?

I would say because in the last census the vast majority of those leaving the city were black - the highest among them were children and young adults under the age of 18. The white population basically remained static (lost a tiny bit I believe) and the Asian and Latino populations rose slightly -

In 2000 the black population had about a 51% majority in the city - in 2010 that went down to about 49% ergo if the trend continues - blacks leaving St. Louis for N County and increasingly St. Chuck - the white population will equal or surpass that black population in the city - with neither one holding a majority due to increasing Asian and Latinos

Its all in the last census St. Louis, MO Population - Census 2010 and 2000 Interactive Map, Demographics, Statistics, Quick Facts - CensusViewer

White % increased between 2000 - 2010 even though whites left the city - they left in far fewer numbers than blacks

Since that time 2010 - some better school options have opened up - this is the single largest actor in people leaving , and more housing has become available -

It stands to reason if the trend continues what STLviaMSP said will come to pass

[STLviaMSP]

^That is what I'm referring to. Black flight from city centers is a nationwide trend. I think it's driven partially by families fleeing the schools and crime in traditionally destitute neighborhoods, and some also gaining an economic foothold and the opportunity to relocate wherever in a metro they wish. I'm not looking at the data right now, but in '00 I think the STL b/w gap was about 8%, and in '10 it was about 3.5%. With the extremely high crime rates in north city, I don't see that pattern of flight changing. Also, with STL city becoming a tech hub in its own right, and the generational shift that is putting a lot more young adults into cities, combined with increasing efforts to draw skilled foreign born population, and new school options as the above poster mentioned, the trend could accelerate. But it will bring with it a major change in how the city is perceived.

[Dawn10am]

It's encouraging to see the Asian, Hispanic/Latino, and "other" categories gaining so much. It'd be a nice breath of fresh air to have more racial diversity than the old white/black paradigm. We should try to get a few thousand Syrian refugees and give them a chunk of North City and see what they can do with it.

[Old Trafford]

Originally Posted by Dawn10am

It's encouraging to see the Asian, Hispanic/Latino, and "other" categories gaining so much. It'd be a nice breath of fresh air to have more racial diversity than the old white/black paradigm. We should try to get a few thousand Syrian refugees and give them a chunk of North City and see what they can do with it.

St. Louis was a immigration destination for Syrians in the past - including Mayor Slay ancestors, the Abussies and the Sansones

[STLviaMSP]

^Cool idea. A Damascustown, huh?

[MUTGR]

Originally Posted by Old Trafford

I would say because in the last census the vast majority of those leaving the city were black - the highest among them were children and young adults under the age of 18. The white population basically remained static (lost a tiny bit I believe) and the Asian and Latino populations rose slightly -

In 2000 the black population had about a 51% majority in the city - in 2010 that went down to about 49% ergo if the trend continues - blacks leaving St. Louis for N County and increasingly St. Chuck - the white population will equal or surpass that black population in the city - with neither one holding a majority due to increasing Asian and Latinos

Its all in the last census St. Louis, MO Population - Census 2010 and 2000 Interactive Map, Demographics, Statistics, Quick Facts - CensusViewer

White % increased between 2000 - 2010 even though whites left the city - they left in far fewer numbers than blacks

Since that time 2010 - some better school options have opened up - this is the single largest actor in people leaving , and more housing has become available -

It stands to reason if the trend continues what STLviaMSP said will come to pass

I've looked at that data and agree with you about the overall trend but don't see how the data supports a conclusion that a flip will happen in ten years.