Is Tampa Bay in housing bubble? (Sarasota, Naples: foreclosure, renter, homebuyer)

[ralphkaz]

good update from Mike Maloney on current state of the economy and housing. If you haven't watched it yet I also highly recommend his video series called "Hidden Secrets of Money" (available on his youtube channel).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHw2LU2ww9M

[SJNE17]

it's so easy to be a doomsayer.

would love to know exactly what they're investing in, as proof.

otherwise, it's a bunch of hot air. no better or worse than a rose-colored outlook.

had you shorted the s&p in the past few years listening to the doomsayers, you'd be in an absolute world of hurt.

Originally Posted by ralphkaz

good update from Mike Maloney on current state of the economy and housing. If you haven't watched it yet I also highly recommend his video series called "Hidden Secrets of Money" (available on his youtube channel).


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHw2LU2ww9M

[bobandsherry]

Originally Posted by ralphkaz

good update from Mike Maloney on current state of the economy and housing. If you haven't watched it yet I also highly recommend his video series called "Hidden Secrets of Money" (available on his youtube channel).

I don't think I'm ready to bet the farm on Mike Maloney's predictions. After all in 2010 he predicted $15,000 gold and $1,500 silver, and get this that silver would be 1/10th the price of gold. Imagine those who followed his advise on this and how foolish (and poor) they would have been.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SFyfJtMtAYQ

Wrong on both. Gold today is $1,350/oz, Silver $20.50 which puts silver at 1.5% of price of gold, way short of 10% and hasn't never come close to 10%. And well, gold just touched $2,000, well short of $15,000. And Mike didn't even predict that bubble in pricing then.

[ralphkaz]

Agreed that the gold/silver predictions are way of. I don't really pay that much attention to "predictions" but focus on his analysis of actual hard data which he summarizes pretty well - after that you have to make up your own mind on where things are going. Also - I'll again plug his "Hidden Secrets of Money" series which is very well done and explains things that hardly anyone understands (where our money comes from).

[bobandsherry]

Originally Posted by ralphkaz

Agreed that the gold/silver predictions are way of. I don't really pay that much attention to "predictions" but focus on his analysis of actual hard data which he summarizes pretty well - after that you have to make up your own mind on where things are going. Also - I'll again plug his "Hidden Secrets of Money" series which is very well done and explains things that hardly anyone understands (where our money comes from).

His "prediction" on gold and silver was certainly based on analysis of hard data he had then, illustrates how wrong the data points might be. Additionally, he is proclaimed to be an expert in metals and was so wrong. The charts that he shows in his current presentation also ignores indexing, so it's not apples to apples. Additionally, current dynamics are not the same as they were in 2008.

Agree that everyone needs to make up their own mind. For every seller there needs to be a buyer. One is going to be right, the other wrong.

[FLHfan]

Originally Posted by SkywayMark

All real estate is LOCAL. As a banker, I can see for myself that there are pockets of absolutely inflated pricing, from Sarasota to Naples area. it can be even isolated down to builder and zipcode.


As a professional, and a trader, I don't need a graph to support the reality of inflated price points, esp price per square foot. Keep in mind, inflated prices may not necessitate the creation of a universal "bubble".


Look, the market is inflated...artificially so in many cases. For that matter, so is the entire equity market, but the BS euphoria of "all time highs" is meaningless in a fragile macro-economy. Our GDP is 1%, but the equity market is soaring to nosebleed territory...even a novice can spot a bs market...even in housing prices which invariably can not be sustained. It's a seller's market, not a buyers market.

Because "real" bankers spend all day posting mis-information on chat rooms all day. Right Shekie? LOL
Housing prices still have a ways to go before they 'nosebleed'. Informed buyers are living proof.

[AntonioR]

Originally Posted by WickedBad

Why would anyone want to die, having paid off a house, or for that matter having paid off unsecured debt ??? lol...now that's really dumb ha ha...

If I know I'm going to die, before I do, I'm going to max out every unsecured credit card to the benefit of my children, or to my charity.

Then, they can elect to do what they want to do with a physical house, in re life insurance payouts ! what the hell do I care then, I would still be DEAD. LOL

I thought that unpaid debts from parents that become deceased are imposed on their children (18+) and collectors can hound them for payment plus interest?

I don't think that's 'a benefit for your kids.'

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by AntonioR

I thought that unpaid debts from parents that become deceased are imposed on their children (18+) and collectors can hound them for payment plus interest?

I don't think that's 'a benefit for your kids.'

Never happened when my parents died owing 100k +. The house was turned over to me just before my father died. The collectors tried to lien the house, but it was too late as the house was in my name. I just had to pay off the reverse mortgage.

[WickedBad]

Originally Posted by AntonioR

I thought that unpaid debts from parents that become deceased are imposed on their children (18+) and collectors can hound them for payment plus interest?

I don't think that's 'a benefit for your kids.'

Dead wrong. "unsecured debt" is unsecured. If a father or mother taps out an unsecured MasterCard and goes to buy a vehicle and title the vehicle in his daughter's name, it's DONE....ditto cash advances...how the hell can any bank lay a legitimate claim if the cash "disappears". Oh they can "try", but it ain't working. ha !

[livedeverywhere123]

Bottom line, to answer the OPs question, if you think you're going to stay in the Tampa area for the next 5-7 years or longer, buy a house, prices will fluctuate in that time but more than likely, you will break even and build a little equity. My personal opinion is that housing in Tampa is overpriced and will drop at the end of 2017 or early 2018 but if i had a crystal ball, i would have bought up everything in 2003 and sold in 2007 and then bought in 2011 and be selling now.