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I expect a few token orders to go out in 2017 with more substantial numbers in 2018. By 2020 there will probably still be people on the list though many will back out from purchasing the car since, by then, multiple viable alternatives will have hit the market.
I expect a few token orders to go out in 2017 with more substantial numbers in 2018. By 2020 there will probably still be people on the list though many will back out from purchasing the car since, by then, multiple viable alternatives will have hit the market.
Unless they go bankrupt.
This guess turned out to be pretty much spot on. They started customer deliveries in late July, but the customers were all Tesla employees. The quarter (which coincides with the CY) ended on Sep 30th and only 220 deliveries were made.
Musk had said they were entering "production hell" in August, and that's just what they got, and fairly soon afterwards, Tesla announced a bottleneck in production. The web site Electrek estimated that 180 were built in Oct. Tesla only announces figures quarterly. Estimates for November were about 240.
But starting in late November there were indications that production might be picking up. On Nov 21st, Tesla started setting up order/delivery for reservations that were not employees. (They were all in California and previous Tesla owners - a forgiving crowd if needed). Then on Dec 7th, they sent more order/delivery invites out.
In addition, parking lots full of M3's were spotted, leading to informed speculation that Tesla would be delivering hundreds of M3's in December.
Also axle supplier Hota Industrial Mfg, which back in September said Tesla had slowed their orders by 40% indicated that Tesla had just ordered them to return to 5,000 a week in deliveries.
I love Elon Musk's strategy of setting overly ambitious goals in order to stay way ahead of the curve. This is just an example, but if the reasonable ramp goal was an annual production of 500,000 cars by 2020, why not set the goal of 500,000 by 2018 to motivate your team to crush projections and blow away analysts. The end result may very well be closer to 500,000 by 2019, but that certainly isn't a bad place to land as a result of a nice game of goal-setting inflation.
This is an example of over promising and under delivering. It doesn’t “keep him ahead of the curve”, it either makes everybody body more skeptical, or tips off his competition to become more aggressive.
Finally saw a Model 3 in the wild this past weekend. If the number of Model S's and Model X's already plying the streets of LA are any indication, I'm pretty sure these things are going to be everywhere.
Finally saw a Model 3 in the wild this past weekend. If the number of Model S's and Model X's already plying the streets of LA are any indication, I'm pretty sure these things are going to be everywhere.
Tesla revealed their 4th quarter sales on Jan 3rd, including the much-anticipated Model 3 numbers. Overall, Tesla set a new record for the quarter with 29,870 sales. I was surprised how much the Model X was contributing. They ended up delivering 15,200 Model S vehicles and 13,120 Model X vehicles.
The Model 3 production, however, continues to have issues ramping up to speed. For the quarter they delivered 1,550 model 3's. While a major increase over the 260 delivered in 3Q, it was still far short of the original hopes of producing 5,000 a week by end of year.
Tesla now says it hopes to produce 2,500 weekly by end of 1Q and hit the 5,000 weekly by end of 2Q, a 6 month slip.
Tesla said it had overcome many bottlenecks, and had produced as many cars between Dec 9th and 31st as they had produced in the time prior to that. The last week of December they produced 793 vehicles (113 a day) and last few days of that week were producing at a rate of 1000 a week, which is 142 a day. (I assume they produce 7 days a week.... not sure though).
So something for both the critics and the believers to spin.
Tesla on the 4th started opening up configuration/ordering pages for reservation holders in all states. They are all current Tesla owners.
I don't believe a word Elon Musk says any longer. Continued delays, slowing S/X growth, an ongoing SEC investigation into the Model 3, CFO resignation, eye-watering cash burn, accounting gimmicks, and a CEO that creates a spectacle to divert attention every time a problem arises....this is a company that is teetering on the brink.
It has taken years, but Wall Street is finally starting to wise up that you can't take Elon at his word. With plenty of BEV competition coming online in 2019 and 2020, Tesla's grip on the electric car market is going to diminish, and fickle Wall Street will find a new darling to court.
Tesla on the 4th started opening up configuration/ordering pages for reservation holders in all states. They are all current Tesla owners.
Not sure where you're getting your info, but we've had people with the Model 3 driving around for 6 months now here in north TX and they're not Tesla employees.
Not sure where you're getting your info, but we've had people with the Model 3 driving around for 6 months now here in north TX and they're not Tesla employees.
They are probably relatives of employees, who transferred the car to them.
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