What year will Texas go the other way? (Austin, Portland: how much, exemptions)

[LiveUrban]

Originally Posted by Desert kid

Texas being a red state is largely a big reason for it's success.

How so exactly? Texas has been a blue state before and was successful then as well.

[Treasurevalley92]

Originally Posted by LiveUrban

How so exactly? Texas has been a blue state before and was successful then as well.

Yeah but Texas was never very liberal. Not culturally at least. Parties have shifted on things over the years.

[earthisle]

Originally Posted by Desert kid

Not next year. Not 2020.

However, 2024 or 2028 is when it goes full purple-to-blue. And that's pretty saddening.

Texas being a red state is largely a big reason for it's success.

How do you define success? By several metrics, Texas is doing significantly worse than California, our most comparable state.


We have twice the uninsured, lower GDP per capita, rural hospitals shutting down, more traffic deaths per capita, largely unregulated chemical releases, and until very recently a total lack of will to mitigate natural disasters

The things we consider good like lower real estate prices, are due to being LESS good at capitalism than California.

[Treasurevalley92]

Originally Posted by earthisle

How do you define success? By several metrics, Texas is doing significantly worse than California, our most comparable state.


We have twice the uninsured, lower GDP per capita, rural hospitals shutting down, more traffic deaths per capita, largely unregulated chemical releases, and until very recently a total lack of will to mitigate natural disasters

The things we consider good like lower real estate prices, are due to being LESS good at capitalism than California.

The problem with American housing expectations is they are contradictory.

On the one hand, we expect housing to be affordable. It is considered bad if average people can't afford to buy a house.

On the other hand we expect housing to be a good investment and beat inflation. This makes it less affordable to a new owner over time.

The "solution" is to sprawl out indefinitely which means that the Nimbys in the higher cost areas keep their better-located houses price artificially inflated...while newer buyers buy in worse locations and are incentivized to become Nimbys themselves and push growth further out.

This is a terrible system.

[prospectheightsresident]

Decades. As long as 70% of non-Hispanic whites, up to 40% of Hispanics, and 15%~ of blacks regularly vote GOP, the state is in no serious risk of flipping.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by prospectheightsresident

Decades. As long as 70% of non-Hispanic whites, up to 40% of Hispanics, and 15%~ of blacks regularly vote GOP, the state is in no serious risk of flipping.

It depends on the race. Abbott got close to 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas but Trump didnt get near that. The Hispanics that vote majority for the GOP mainly come from the Texas Panhandle. Hispanics in the Texas cities are well within the blue demographic.

I think it also depends on the state of the party. If the party goes back towards a Reagan/Bush doctrine, Texas will remain red for some time. If the party shifts the direction of the Trump doctrine, Texas will go blue in the next ten years.

[prospectheightsresident]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

It depends on the race. Abbott got close to 40% of the Hispanic vote in Texas but Trump didnt get near that. The Hispanics that vote majority for the GOP mainly come from the Texas Panhandle. Hispanics in the Texas cities are well within the blue demographic.

I think it also depends on the state of the party. If the party goes back towards a Reagan/Bush doctrine, Texas will remain red for some time. If the party shifts the direction of the Trump doctrine, Texas will go blue in the next ten years.

Eh, I don't know. Trump won 34% of the Latino vote in Texas in 2016 according to exit polls: https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/re...exas/president So, while not 40%, it wasn't that far off the mark.

Trump won a smaller percentage of the non-Hispanic white vote than native son GWB and AZ-Sen John McCain won in 2004 and 2008, respectively (Mccain won 72%, while Trump won 69%): https://www.nytimes.com/elections/20...lls/texas.html (results for 2008). That, in addition to the slight drop off in the Hispanic vote, is what made for the smaller difference. Some of the non-Hispanic white vote that Trump lost out on went to Clinton, but I wager that most of it went to Gary Johnson (and I doubt those voters back a Democrat for president), who won almost 300,000 votes in 2016 (compared to the nearly 90,000 votes he won when he was also the libertarian nominee in 2012). This is what really made up for the difference in Trump's smaller margin of victory compared to, say, Mitt Romney four years prior. Contrary to how some think, however, I expect Trump to win over many more of the traditional GOP voters in 2020 as he has governed as a conservative. This is especially true if the Dems nominate a far left candidate like Warren or Sanders.

Of course, anything could happen, but I continue to think Texas flipping blue is a pipe dream.

[DanielWayne]

I do find it hard to believe that Trump won 34% of the Texas Latino vote, but there are probably other factors involved. That being said, that vote was before the draconian immigration policies and the ridiculous wall proposal to block off one the nation that has the most embedded historical ties to Texas and even the US. Since then, people with ancestry from $#!+hole countries have become a lot more dissatisfied. So I would not count on that vote trend continuing.

https://www.pewresearch.org/hispanic...a-under-trump/

Many blame the current administration for what they see as the worsening situation of Hispanics, the nation’s largest minority group. Two-thirds (67%) say the administration’s policies have been harmful to Hispanics – a much higher share than during the administration of either Democrat Barack Obama (15% in 2010) or Republican George W. Bush (41% in 2007).2 Overall, six-in-ten Hispanics (62%) say they are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country today, up since 2017 and the highest level since the Great Recession a decade ago, when 70% of Hispanics said they were dissatisfied with the nation’s direction.

[gabetx]

Originally Posted by Treasurevalley92

The first article literally says "Whitest LARGE City" That makes sense because yeah, most large cities tend to be diverse.

You didn't say that though, you said it was the whitest city of any size, which is incorrect.

Maddison, Lincoln, Spokane, Colorado Springs, Boise, etc are all medium-sized cities non-suburb cities that are all "More White"

Still, over 70% you have Reno, Ft Wayne, Omaha etc as well as other small and medium-sized midwestern cities have similar numbers.

Austin, Denver, Seattle, ABQ are all just shy of 70.

Again, no one is saying Portland is super diverse, and for a big city it is comparatively is not, but you are the one claiming it is one of the least diverse cities of any size and that is wrong as well. Just pointing that out, nothing more.

If you simply mean it is the least diverse of the major cities, just say that.

You bust people's balls all the time for minor details so I would expect that you would expect the same from others?

Austin and ABQ are nowhere near 70% white. You have to separate the white from the Hispanic demographics. Austin is 48% white and 35% Hispanic. ABQ is 42% white and 46% Hispanic

[Treasurevalley92]

Originally Posted by gabetx

Austin and ABQ are nowhere near 70% white. You have to separate the white from the Hispanic demographics. Austin is 48% white and 35% Hispanic. ABQ is 42% white and 46% Hispanic

Fair.

That number for Austin seems inflated, but could be true. Austin feels about as white as Portland to me, but then again this is about the facts not about feelings.

Still doesn't mean Portland is the "Least Diverse City of any Size"

Maddison, Lincoln, Spokane, Colorado Springs, Boise, Portland Maine (all the cities in Northern New England) etc are all "More White"

The PNW, Upper Midwest, and Northern half of New England are all pretty white.