Uh-oh! TX unemployment going up; RGV the WORST! (Brownsville, McAllen: real estate, loan)

[teatime]

Brownsville unemployment among highest in Texas; state rate jumps to 6.4 percent | percent, texas, unemployment - Local - Brownsville Herald (http://www.brownsvilleherald.com/news/percent_95524___article.html/texas_unemployment.html - broken link)

Midland-Odessa has the lowest unemployment rates. McAllen/Edinburgh is in the double digits.

I hope that the people who are descending on Texas from other states realize this and stay put. I saw an article saying that if things don't improve, Texas will be running out of money for jobless benefits by September and will have to hit up the feds for a loan. The last thing we need is this big influx from other states to continue and stress out our services.

[texan55]

Yeah, totally joining the rest of the nation in the fun.

plus the stats don't show how many people are going broke because of the increase of the violence in the drug war/upped border security.

a LOT of the people in the valley made/make their money off of drugs.

[doss1]

That's interesting because just last year, McAllen had the HIGHEST rate of employment in the state!

[case44]

It's starting to catch up with us now.


Let's just keep our fingers crossed for the better....

[txsizzler]

I know here in Wichita Falls, the unemployment rate may now be 6.8%; but just consider, in January 2007, we were at 4.7%. Amazing what a little over a year makes.

On a side note, one thing that made me laugh today was CNBC.... their main story seem to revolve around what to call this economic decline.... a recession, a mini-depression, a BIG recession.... they went on and on about it. LOL


Ian

[Jammie]

Originally Posted by TexasNick

That's interesting because just last year, McAllen had the HIGHEST rate of employment in the state!

I think that's what the OP meant since he said that McCallen's unemployment rate was in the double digits.

6.4 is a high unemployment rate and it must seem awful down there because it's been so low for so long. You're still well below the new national rate of 8.1%. There are some counties/cities that are heading for 20% unemployment. Not good at all.

[doss1]

Originally Posted by Jammie

I think that's what the OP meant since he said that McCallen's unemployment rate was in the double digits.

Jammie,
Re-read my post. I said McAllen had the highest level of EMPLOYMENT, not UNEMPLOYMENT. Now, that's no longer the case...

[teatime]

Originally Posted by TexasNick

Jammie,
Re-read my post. I said McAllen had the highest level of EMPLOYMENT, not UNEMPLOYMENT. Now, that's no longer the case...

Hmmm, I highly doubt that, unless they were fudging their numbers somehow. Just the fact that everyone knows but few will admit -- that the area is rife with illegal immigrants trying to get work -- makes that statement untrue.

The Border unemployment rate has improved greatly since NAFTA but it's not THAT good. Besides, a large chunk are true minimum-wage jobs. My kid looked hard and finally found a job at a fast food joint for $5.15 when the same restaurants in other parts of the state were paying at least $8. Those aren't totally teen jobs in the RGV -- you've got people with families competing for them.

[killer2021]

Of course Texas is going to be affected in one way or another. Here is how:

1. agriculture prices fell off a cliff - Texas is heavy in agriculture. I am predicting farm land and rural land prices to decline.

2. Energy prices fell off a cliff - Texas is heavy in the energy sector. Investment that used to be going into revamping old wells, pumping natural gas is gone.

3. Texas is home to the headquarters of the many fortune 500 companies. The s&p500 index is down nearly 50% from a year ago. Those companies are going to be on cost cutting mode to lower costs and increase earnings (which increases their stock price). They aren't going to be hiring anymore. They'll be looking to lay people off.

The good thing about Texas is that at least the government didn't go out of control and stayed in budget. Also Texas never really saw a housing bubble so house prices will not drop by much. I am thinking maybe we will see a 20% decline in the next three years but nothing like FL and CA which will see 50%+ declines. Places like riverside and Sacramento are well on their way to 75%+ declines.

A big factor to the value of your real estate will be based on where the jobs are. If there is no jobs within a reasonable distance your home value will decline. There aren't many people who will be able to buy a depressed home (even if it has been heavily discounted) if there are no jobs. People simply go to where the jobs are. You can easily buy a decent home in Michigan for 25k but no one does that because there are no jobs!

[doss1]

Originally Posted by teatime

Hmmm, I highly doubt that, unless they were fudging their numbers somehow.

I know, I couldn't believe it either, but check out this screenshot I took from the Texas Workforce Commission presentation: