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It's not that cars would suddenly become a luxury item, but that cars may, over time, become less central to the average person's life. It's not the people will en mass give up their cars, but that people may make fewer marginal trips, or put off buying a new car, or buy a bicycle, or move to where cars are slightly less important, etc. In the end, it may be lots of people making lots of very incremental choices.
People making fewer trips doesn't make a car less of a necessity; you can classify some trips as necessity and some trips as luxury, but if a person has a necessary car trip, a car is a necessity. Putting off buying new cars but keeping the old car is a way of saving money, but doesn't change the necessity of the car. There's not much individuals can do to change it, either, except on the margins. Yes, people can move to the few areas where cars are not necessary, but these areas are few and as people move to them, they become more expensive. Households without cars still stand (as of 2012) at less than 10%, and vehicles per capita at 0.8.
People making fewer trips doesn't make a car less of a necessity; you can classify some trips as necessity and some trips as luxury, but if a person has a necessary car trip, a car is a necessity. Putting off buying new cars but keeping the old car is a way of saving money, but doesn't change the necessity of the car. There's not much individuals can do to change it, either, except on the margins. Yes, people can move to the few areas where cars are not necessary, but these areas are few and as people move to them, they become more expensive. Households without cars still stand (as of 2012) at less than 10%, and vehicles per capita at 0.8.
You seem to see the necessity as a binary, mutually exclusive thing; only an epic shift could change the centrality of the car. I see the value of cars as a gradation, influenced by many small changes in incentives.
People making fewer trips means, by definition, those specific trips weren't necessary. It's possible, through small, incremental reductions in car use, to get to a point where you're only using your car for trips for which a car is the best, perhaps only, option. But that means you can get to a point where the car is sitting unused more than 99% of the time; if you only use it an hour a day, it's already sitting 95% of the time. If a car sharing service or short-term rental service is available nearby, you might get to a point where it no longer made financial sense to own a car. Maybe you move to an area where walking or biking for a plurality of trips is reasonably easy. Making only small, incremental changes over along arc of time, you could, perhaps, go from 2 to 1 cars for a family or 1 to none for an individual.
And that says nothing specific about the inward pressure of vehicle costs, or the outward pressure of increasing costs of living (rent, student debt, etc.), or of the generally flat and, sometimes, negative, incomes.
The bottom line is that the number of vehicle miles driven by an individual has a huge set of influencing factors.
You seem to see the necessity as a binary, mutually exclusive thing; only an epic shift could change the centrality of the car. I see the value of cars as a gradation, influenced by many small changes in incentives.
People making fewer trips means, by definition, those specific trips weren't necessary. It's possible, through small, incremental reductions in car use, to get to a point where you're only using your car for trips for which a car is the best, perhaps only, option. But that means you can get to a point where the car is sitting unused more than 99% of the time; if you only use it an hour a day, it's already sitting 95% of the time. If a car sharing service or short-term rental service is available nearby, you might get to a point where it no longer made financial sense to own a car.
The bottom line is that the number of vehicle miles driven by an individual has a huge set of influencing factors.
I don't think so. Reality check a car is usually faster than a bus or train and only in times of high traffic(which is at best 6-8 am and maybe 4-6) will a train even match the speed of the car. Between walking or busing to the train stop, waiting for the train the car will beat it. At best an Commuter train can only beat the car if it has an more direct path than the road.
The problem with rental or sharing is the cost could be greater over the long term than just buying the car. Esp. if you need it to go to work, pick up or drop off kids in an reasonable time frame and so on. The cost of car rental can also add up quick and the rental needs to be returned(an hassle because it may not be near your house or your work, or where you want to stay). In addition the longer you use the car the more it will cost. You can't just go off the that family trip over an weekend without hassle. An car note is an fixed cost, rental and sharing are not and in a lot of place the buses don't run at all times. Cars also allow you to store stuff and take it with you buses, and car shares or rentals do not. You also lose money with gas for the rental, as the will charge you if the tank is too low. Your choice either buy gas you can't use or accept the charge.
Anyway I use my car 100% of the time in various ways. I use it to store stuff I might need to carry and I use it for trips. I also don't have the can't drive across state lines problem with the rental car(some companies forbid it).
Anyway the problem with car sharing is that it might not be near your house. You can't put one from the same company on every block. By the time you have walked to it(could be blocks), you could have easily walked to the garage or the on the street parking in front of the house. Oh and you will be inconvenienced by rain, snow(esp. when people don't clear sidewalks), ice and wind. And there is no guarantee that a car is available at the time you need it.
Automobiles and other private transportation allows people to travel on their own schedule, by a route of their own choosing, as opposed to being chained to a bus schedule.
Further, since it is self-propelled, he doesn't have to worry about undependable transit drivers or drivers who are on strike.
In addition, America was built for the automobile, its a massive continent and in most places, extensive public transit just isn't financially viable.
I don't think so. Reality check a car is usually faster than a bus or train and only in times of high traffic(which is at best 6-8 am and maybe 4-6) will a train even match the speed of the car. Between walking or busing to the train stop, waiting for the train the car will beat it. At best an Commuter train can only beat the car if it has an more direct path than the road.
The problem with rental or sharing is the cost could be greater over the long term than just buying the car. Esp. if you need it to go to work, pick up or drop off kids in an reasonable time frame and so on. The cost of car rental can also add up quick and the rental needs to be returned(an hassle because it may not be near your house or your work, or where you want to stay). In addition the longer you use the car the more it will cost. You can't just go off the that family trip over an weekend without hassle. An car note is an fixed cost, rental and sharing are not and in a lot of place the buses don't run at all times. Cars also allow you to store stuff and take it with you buses, and car shares or rentals do not. You also lose money with gas for the rental, as the will charge you if the tank is too low. Your choice either buy gas you can't use or accept the charge.
Anyway I use my car 100% of the time in various ways. I use it to store stuff I might need to carry and I use it for trips. I also don't have the can't drive across state lines problem with the rental car(some companies forbid it).
My point was rather specific and unambiguous: the number of vehicle miles driven is the result of a complex set of inputs.
So PT doesn't work for you--PT being a point I didn't bring up--and neither does car sharing or short-term rentals. Your situation means a car is both valuable and essential on a daily basis. But that is not an essential truth; that is ultimately the product of your life. I was not responding to one person's specific circumstances; I was responding to the idea that a car is absolutely--in all situations and across a long arc of time--a necessity, which it is not, and to which I responded at length.
For a lot of people, the car has become so important, so central to their lives, that they cannot imagine that the value of a car is actually a gradation and that small, incremental changes taken over a long period of time can greatly affect the necessity of a car. And this works both directions, toward it being more essential and away from it.
Maybe you move to a more preferred housing option, but it takes you further from things--shopping, work, school--and thus makes the car more essential. Maybe you move to an area where a large minority--a plurality--of trips can be done in a comfortable and practical way without your car, and thus the car becomes less essential. Changes can also be external to you, like gas hitting $5/gallon or work offering a convenient shuttle or work requiring you to drive for meetings or deliveries.
I suspect there might be some shift in the demographics of those not driving — not driving less concentrated among poor young people. For the metros with the biggest changes, I think it's tracking changes in residence more than anything else (young people moving to less car dependent neighborhoods).
You should read yourselves if you ever wonder why many Americans feel urban planners hate their cars and way of life, are so hostile towards and feel threatened by "smart growth" policies, and even latch onto Agenda 21 theories. The consensus of hostility towards cars and in my view the individual autonomy they represent is striking, but that's beside the point. I posted this to note that most Americans on this forum, and the urban planning profession in general, have a perspective of cars and cities so divorced from ordinary Americans they might as well live in a different country - that's how little common ground exists. Regardless of how right or wrong that perspective is, you should be aware of how psychically different your world is from the world(s) ordinary Americans inhabit, and act accordingly.
Offhand, when the cost of an item escalates people have two financial options assuming their income doesn't increase: reduce or eliminate said item, or absorb the additional cost elsewhere. If the cost of driving escalates, Americans will likely choose the latter; not only are cars a necessity, but they are a symbol of a way of life they cherish, particularly in an era of national stress like today. If the extra cost is imposed by government (likely as an unpopular policy) the second choice becomes even more likely. People's views can change and nullify all this, but my prediction is valid as long as Americans' cars/cities worldview resembles today's. Indeed, I believe people are already absorbing increased driving costs, considering how auto-related consumption has grown as incomes have shrunk in the 2010's to date.
Your post was so good that it caused me to become a liar. Almost two months ago I said I was not coming back to this forum, but I couldn't pass up the opportunity to second your motion. Behind all the specific arguments, financial or otherwise, lies a striking general attitude, a "consensus of hostility towards cars". In evidence for that (as if any evidence were required), I submit this portion of one of the quotes from the OP:
".....kept alive by journalists...." is outright laughable. Where did the writer come by the false assumption that if only journalists didn't use "hackneyed narratives" and if only we didn't have "a daily bombardment of car ads", then the "car culture" would shrivel and die. Well, the vast majority of people have and use cars because of the superior flexibility, freedom, and convenience which cars afford. Ads have little or nothing to do with it. The ads are vying for sales of particular brands of cars from an audience of people who ALREADY subscribe to the utility and desirability of car ownership.
The phrase "car culture" in itself seems bizarre it me. Well, of course we have a car culture in this country; it is the normal way to live. The vast majority of us also have indoor plumbing, in fact a greater majority than have cars, but there is no talk of an "indoor plumbing culture". Indoor plumbing is an accepted fact of life, just like cars are among most people.
Having said all that, I have no quarrel with people who decide of their own free will not to have cars, or indoor plumbing for that matter. There is nothing wrong with public transit per se. I have used it occasionally myself. Many high-density places are well suited for public transit. But we are talking about underlying attitudes here. The car system is neither "unhealthy" nor "unequal" (whatever that means) nor "unsustainable". From where I sit at age 70 it is just as sustainable as it was over 60 years ago when I was a child forming my initial conceptions of how the world works.
The phrase "car culture" in itself seems bizarre it me. Well, of course we have a car culture in this country; it is the normal way to live. The vast majority of us also have indoor plumbing, in fact a greater majority than have cars, but there is no talk of an "indoor plumbing culture". Indoor plumbing is an accepted fact of life, just like cars are among normal people. .
Eh. They're not really comparable. I could get around, somewhat less conveniently, without having a car. Yes, most people have cars, but an accepted fact of life among normal people? A lack of indoor plumbing is rather unthinkable, and poor hygiene in many cases.
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A lack of indoor plumbing is rather unthinkable, and poor hygiene in many cases.
