Port Hueneme, CA an other beach front properties (Irvine, Santa Monica: median income, prices)

[HSP1161]

Originally Posted by user_id

But homes in areas with moderate levels of foreclosures aren't sitting around for 1-3 years even right now.

TO resident misses 30 mortgage payments, and counting...

Foreclosure limbo: Staying without paying. - Jun. 9, 2011

[LadyKLO]

30 payments...let me miss one and the bank will be on me so quick!

[user_id]

Originally Posted by OpenSky

TO resident misses 30 mortgage payments, and counting...

It says "an actor" so I imagine its a high end house, these can take a long time to deal with since the market for them is so small.

Regardless, banks have no incentive to hold houses off the market in areas with modest foreclosures, they are likely to lose more by waiting. Obviously, there are legal issues that sometimes prevent a bank from unloading a home quickly.

30-months is long even in areas that have a lot of foreclosures, these are out-liners....

[HSP1161]

For a guy who's effectively shorting the housing market, I'd think you'd be inclined to believe in the "shadow inventory" narrative, which includes letting loan-owners squat rent-free. In other words, the combination of both supply- and demand-side forces at work in your favor. And when the tidal wave of supply breaks, then the prices align with fundamentals. Etc, you know the rest.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by OpenSky

For a guy who's effectively shorting the housing market, I'd think you'd be inclined to believe in the "shadow inventory" narrative, which includes letting loan-owners squat rent-free.

I think there is tons of "shadow inventory", but I also think that in higher end communities that amount of "shadow foreclosures" is relatively small. Not only can banks more easily unload these properties since the market isn't filled with them already, but the owners are typically going to push for a short-sale.

In a city like Thousand Oaks I think most of the shadow inventory is aging boomers that are waiting for the market to "recover" so they can move somewhere cheaper. This cohort didn't save much for retirement, so their home is...errr was...an important part of their retirement.

The primary weakness I see in real estate going forward is from generational issues, not so much from unlisted foreclosures.

[SOON2BNSURPRISE]

Originally Posted by user_id

It says "an actor" so I imagine its a high end house, these can take a long time to deal with since the market for them is so small.

Regardless, banks have no incentive to hold houses off the market in areas with modest foreclosures, they are likely to lose more by waiting. Obviously, there are legal issues that sometimes prevent a bank from unloading a home quickly.

30-months is long even in areas that have a lot of foreclosures, these are out-liners....

It said actor not star. According to the article this is a guy that also does other work on the side. I have a co-worker that is an actor and he still works at the hospital even though he has been on a series. Still he is far from rich. I doubt that the actor lives in a high end home. I bet he lives in a tract home at best. The Thousand Oaks area has over 500 homes listed as forclosure property that I was able to find. Many are selling from a low of $280K and up.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by SOON2BNSURPRISE

The Thousand Oaks area has over 500 homes listed as forclosure property that I was able to find. Many are selling from a low of $280K and up.

If the homes are listed then they aren't shadow inventory. My claim is that banks don't have a large back-log of foreclosed properties in areas like Thousand Oaks, not that there are no foreclosures. Anyhow, nowadays most people are doing short-sales, foreclosures are typically found in the low end or the high end as short-sales don't work as well in these categories. So perhaps this "author" is low income, its also possible there are legal problems with the foreclosure.

I've known a few people that have defaulted on their mortgages in Ventura County, they have all done short-sales. The banks usually prefer them.

Its funny that even the low-end foreclosures are still selling for ~$300k in Thousand Oaks, these prices make no sense.

[HSP1161]

How much rental inventory is there in TO? What is the approximate mix of SFR:condo?

These factors, among others, are a drag on median incomes.

Regarding $300k making 'no sense', people solve for a monthly payment. When interest rates rise, those prices will drop.

[user_id]

Originally Posted by OpenSky

How much rental inventory is there in TO? What is the approximate mix of SFR:condo?
These factors, among others, are a drag on median incomes.

I don't know what you are trying to say here.

Originally Posted by OpenSky

Regarding $300k making 'no sense', people solve for a monthly payment. When interest rates rise, those prices will drop.

You don't say? The prices still don't make sense. But the strong dependence on interest rates is more a modern factor, down-payments aren't relative to rates and these would limit people's buy choices when they are required. That is, stronger down-payment requirements would play more or less the same role as increasing rates.

Without the low-down FHA loans the market would crash...

[HSP1161]

Originally Posted by user_id

I don't know what you are trying to say here.

You have a constant refrain about median household incomes, generally as a determinant for home values.

The median can be skewed downward based on the materiality of high- and medium-density housing. Santa Monica for example. Another is Irvine, which added thousands of rental units over the past 10-15 years.

My question was genuine; I'm honestly not aware of how much dense housing is in the Conejo Valley.