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Hmmmmm lots of people on UK weather forums were saying because of the HP we would have sunny, warm weather. Well it's overcast in the west of the UK and now cooled down to an October like 14°C. Warm my balls. This is quite ludicrous rubbish, and the thing is I forecast it perfectly. My pessimism about this dirty cloud choked azores high proved to be correct as usual, at least here and in the west. Too many people on netweather are far too over optimistic and show a chart with high pressure on it telling us it's going to be lovely and what good charts they are. But the reality is cold, cloudy maybe even drizzle, and well below average temperatures. The azores high doesn't bring good summer weather to the UK (unless your name is "dunno_what_to_put_here"), we need a Euro high and continental southerlies.
Hmmmmm lots of people on UK weather forums were saying because of the HP we would have sunny, warm weather. Well it's overcast in the west of the UK and now cooled down to an October like 14°C. Warm my balls. This is quite ludicrous rubbish, and the thing is I forecast it perfectly. My pessimism about this dirty cloud choked azores high proved to be correct as usual, at least here and in the west. Too many people on netweather are far too over optimistic and show a chart with high pressure on it telling us it's going to be lovely and what good charts they are. But the reality is cold, cloudy maybe even drizzle, and well below average temperatures. The azores high doesn't bring good summer weather to the UK (unless your name is "dunno_what_to_put_here"), we need a Euro high and continental southerlies.
Quite true...
There are many things that go into the weather/climate, and often it's the little things that can make a big difference.
Meanwhile we are really on fire on the US mainland.....yesterday hit 91 F here, and we are headed for 95 F today I think. There were 90 to 100 F heat indexs in more than 35% of the USA yesterday
One isolated 30C in Pskov. Interesting to see that the 25C reaches all the way up to the extreme north of Norway, while SW Norway has some 14C. And poor Denmark. The Baltic States are hot... again.
NWS just updated possible record heat coming late this week/weekend: All I can say is wow:
Excessive Heat Watch
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
305 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013
...RECORD BREAKING HEAT POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.NEAR RECORD AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION RESULTING FROM A STRONG AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.
AZZ002-003-036-CAZ522>527-NVZ016-017-020>022-252200-
/O.EXT.KVEF.EH.A.0002.130628T1800Z-130702T0300Z/
LAKE HAVASU AND FORT MOHAVE-NORTHWEST DESERTS-
LAKE MEAD NATIONAL RECREATION AREA-DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK-
WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT-EASTERN MOJAVE DESERT-MORONGO BASIN-
CADIZ BASIN-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY-UPPER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY-
NORTHEAST CLARK COUNTY-WESTERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTY-
LAS VEGAS VALLEY-SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY-
INCLUDING...LAKE HAVASU...DESERT HILLS...TOPOCK...
KINGMAN...GOLDEN VALLEY...DOLAN SPRINGS...WIKIEUP...YUCCA...
BULLHEAD CITY...MOHAVE VALLEY...FURNACE CREEK...SHOSHONE...
BARSTOW...DAGGETT...FORT IRWIN...BAKER...MORONGO VALLEY...
YUCCA VALLEY...TWENTYNINE PALMS...VIDAL JUNCTION...NEEDLES...
MESQUITE...OVERTON...MOAPA...PAHRUMP...INDIAN SPRINGS...
DESERT ROCK...AMARGOSA VALLEY...LAS VEGAS...NORTH LAS VEGAS...
HENDERSON...BOULDER CITY...SUMMERLIN...NELLIS...MOUNTAINS EDGE...
SEVEN HILLS...BLUE DIAMOND...HOOVER DAM...LAUGHLIN...PRIMM...
SEARCHLIGHT...CAL-NEV-ARI
305 AM PDT TUE JUN 25 2013 /305 AM MST TUE JUN 25 2013/
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING...
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 4000 FEET FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
* EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES:
LAS VEGAS (MCCARRAN INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT)...113 TO 115
MESQUITE AND THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...115 TO 123
PAHRUMP...110 TO 112
BARSTOW...112 TO 115
MORONGO BASIN...108 TO 115
DEATH VALLEY...125 TO 127
KINGMAN...107 TO 110
* TIMING: FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THIS EVENT. LITTLE RELIEF IS EXPECTED AT
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS SUCH AS THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE STRIP AND DOWNTOWN MAY NOT DROP
BELOW 90 DEGREES.
* GREATEST IMPACTS: CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY...AND PEOPLE WITH
CHRONIC AILMENTS ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS. HEAT EXHAUSTION...CRAMPS...OR IN EXTREME CASES HEAT
STROKE CAN RESULT FROM PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO THESE
CONDITIONS. FRIENDS... RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK
ON PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE A
DANGEROUS SITUATION IN WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER...STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF
DIRECT SUNLIGHT...AND CHECK UP ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.
GFS blows up on Wed July 3, highest of 125F/51.7C around Fresno. Obviously impossible, right? Um....
Friday forecast.... Very cool in most of Europe outside Russia, Southern Spain, Portugal, Greece....
It looks like the center of the heat in the U.S. is moving westward and the center of the heat in Europe is moving eastward. Maybe they'll merge somewhere in the Pacific . As for the 125F, there is no support from any other model runs for that scenario, so I think it's one of those flukes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Here we go again. HPC rain total foreast next 7 days. Most will fall on Thursday I believe.
It looks like the East is going to be drenched. Some regions are very cool and wet, and other regions are very hot and dry, and some other regions are experiencing both. For instance, northern California is going from a winter-like storm pattern to a huge heat wave in a week's time. Similarly, it looks like the Plains are going to have a drastic cooling.
Unlike in some previous summers, there seems to be big regional disconnects this year. Some believe it's 2012 all over again, and some believe it's 2009 all over again.
Stormy stormy stormy for the East. Just incredible seeing these amplified pattern. At this point I'm getting fed up too because I need this around in the winter. Although that setup in the 8-10 would bring rain for me.
Starting to think July is going to be wet and wild too.
Stormy is the word of the month for the Northeast, and I think these unusual storms will continue in July, perhaps to a lesser extent than June (perhaps, mind you ). Below is my assessment of the general pattern through early July. I have a feeling that this pattern will appear a lot through the end of the summer - heat centered in the Southwest, cool weather centered in the Great Lakes, and a persistent upper-level off the west coast. The heat may extend to the Gulf Coast or even the East Coast during times when the trough is weak, and the coolness may extend to the East Coast and Plains during times when the trough is strong. The heat in the West may be broken up by unusual Pacific storm patterns like the one we've seen recently.
If the trough on this model depiction looks familiar, it should - it has a similar appearance to all those troughs that appeared in the Plains during April and May, only now it's a few hundred miles eastward. The big heat ridge is obviously a more recent development, but it does fit in with the Southwest being the warmest part of the country relative to normal.
I thought it would be interesting to update this graph:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium
Here's a look at how many days these cities have been above 80°F this year compared to last year. Baltimore leading the pack with having a lot less this year. Wow. More than weeks worth of 81+ last year by now. Bit surprised at Boston and Bridgeport. And funny how Concord gets more.
Some stations are actually ahead of last year in terms of days above 80 F.
As of today NWS Boston, Bridgeport, and NYC are running ahead of last year (2012) in terms of days above 80 F. At NWS Hartford, the gap is now down to 1 day difference, while the gap at Philly is the same, and the gap is now 1 day larger at DC. Will be interesting to see what this chart looks like by September 21st.
I thought it would be interesting to update this graph:
Some stations are actually ahead of last year in terms of days above 80 F.
As of today NWS Boston, Bridgeport, and NYC are running ahead of last year (2012) in terms of days above 80 F. At NWS Hartford, the gap is now down to 1 day difference, while the gap at Philly is the same, and the gap is now 1 day larger at DC. Will be interesting to see what this chart looks like by September 21st.
I have that file open since I posted it. lol. Plan to update it when June ends. Some surprises in there as you pointed out.
Speaking of Hartford (BDL Windsor Locks, CT). They were a cool 1.4 below normal for the month mean temps. Just 3 days after some heat they are now .20 below. Always sucks seeing a couple days of heat deterioate a below normal number again. (happened end of May!)
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The Baltic States are hot... again.
. As for the 125F, there is no support from any other model runs for that scenario, so I think it's one of those flukes.
