Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Something that I think might make a big impact possibly a bigger impact than global warming is the urban heat island effect. Yakutsk is a sizable city and quickly growing on top of that. In 2010 Yakutsk had 269,601 people, in 2017 307,911, an increase of 38,310 or +14.21%. In 2000 Yakutsk had 195,400 people, an increase of 112,511 or +57.5% since 2000. I think one of the biggest effects will be an increase of summer night temperatures, especially since they are so short, with warmer nights there will be a better chance that the mean will cross over the 22C threshold.
it's been four years now, and Yakutsk continues to boom in population, in 2021 their population was 355,443 that is an increase of 47,532 people since 2017 (+15.4%)
Also looking the 20 year population average, between 1981 and 2010 Yakutsk had an average of 202,675 people, while between 1991 and 2020 Yakutsk had an average of 24,853 people, an increase of 40,178 people (+19.82%)
However, when comparing the difference in anual mean temp for the 2 time periods, temperatures increased by 0.8C (1.4F), not sure how much of that can be attributed to global warming, and how much can be attributed to urban heat island affect? but most of the warming happened outside of summer and more so with the lows.
This 2018 paper implies that hot-summer subarctic climates could exist in some isolated microclimates in the Russian Far East around the Amur Basin(?) under the RCP 8.5 warming scenario by the late 21st century. (Current projections are that we've avoided RCP 8.5 scenario levels of emissions, but that doesn't rule out the possibility of such a climate occurring in the 22nd or 23rd centuries.
Yep, the summers in particular are much warmer than expected, and not just considering how much cooler towns even to the south are. As a matter of fact they are almost as warm as summers where I am and probably as warm as or warmer for the average high!
Turpan is pretty extreme but for precise statistics I would not use the weather box. Averages, highs, and lows do not line up, some of them are wrong.
Wonder what its accurate averages are?
There was a discussion in another thread about Yakutsk and I just noticed this same problem applies to it too, its May says 13.8C/1.5C which is a 7.8C average and not 8C, and its July says 25.8C/13.1C which is a 19.5C average not 19.9C. What totally neat and quality controlled climate box making, I hope everyone who got their hopes up over Yakutsk sees this so the misconception is clarified.
Who knows what the accurate averages are! Although I must thank Psyche mike for that study, it will be very cool to see if those end up existing.
There was a discussion in another thread about Yakutsk and I just noticed this same problem applies to it too, its May says 13.8C/1.5C which is a 7.8C average and not 8C, and its July says 25.8C/13.1C which is a 19.5C average not 19.9C. What totally neat and quality controlled climate box making, I hope everyone who got their hopes up over Yakutsk sees this so the misconception is clarified.
Who knows what the accurate averages are! Although I must thank Psyche mike for that study, it will be very cool to see if those end up existing.
The average of the high and low would be 4.0C, but the mean would be 4.6C.
Could be, but for any practical purpose it would have to be consistent with all climate boxes. So either all climate boxes would have to revert to that or the climate boxes using that would have to use the standard in order for the boxes to be reasonably compared.
Could be, but for any practical purpose it would have to be consistent with all climate boxes. So either all climate boxes would have to revert to that or the climate boxes using that would have to use the standard in order for the boxes to be reasonably compared.
There isn’t a standard.
Wiki climate boxes use data provided by National Weather Services of every country, which use different means to calculate the averages, all of them allowed by the World Meteorological Organization.
Nevertheless, the usage of various specific hourly readings are the preferred ones in order to get closer to the actual average, such as 0z, 3z, 6z, 9z, 12z, 15z, 18z and 21z, or just 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. Anyway, the most important thing is that a single station kept using the same system throughout all its period of records, whatever it is.
Daily (MIN+MAX)/2 is certainly the easiest way to calculate averages, but it doesn’t escape from some problems, such as the point in which one day ends and the following one starts. It seems obvious that it should be 0hs local time, but why? And then there are many countries that change time zones seasonally, or even readjust their time zones every some decades, so which boundary should they use to count lows and highs? Should they keep a single time zone for weather data or seasonally change it? But does it actually cause any impact? And the answer is yes. Using different day boundaries cause the monthly averages of (MIN+MAX)/2 to change up to 0.5C. Due to the pass of cold fronts, the closer the boundary is to the sunrise, the lower the mean tends to be and viceversa.
Wiki climate boxes use data provided by National Weather Services of every country, which use different means to calculate the averages, all of them allowed by the World Meteorological Organization.
Nevertheless, the usage of various specific hourly readings are the preferred ones in order to get closer to the actual average, such as 0z, 3z, 6z, 9z, 12z, 15z, 18z and 21z, or just 0z, 6z, 12z and 18z. Anyway, the most important thing is that a single station kept using the same system throughout all its period of records, whatever it is.
Daily (MIN+MAX)/2 is certainly the easiest way to calculate averages, but it doesn’t escape from some problems, such as the point in which one day ends and the following one starts. It seems obvious that it should be 0hs local time, but why? And then there are many countries that change time zones seasonally, or even readjust their time zones every some decades, so which boundary should they use to count lows and highs? Should they keep a single time zone for weather data or seasonally change it? But does it actually cause any impact? And the answer is yes. Using different day boundaries cause the monthly averages of (MIN+MAX)/2 to change up to 0.5C. Due to the pass of cold fronts, the closer the boundary is to the sunrise, the lower the mean tends to be and viceversa.
Thank you for this helpful post.
In Australia the meteorological day runs from 0900h to 0900h local time.
Edit: in Canada, the meteorological day bizarrely runs from 0600z and ends at 0559z regardless of local time.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
, the summers in particular are much warmer than expected, and not just considering how much cooler towns even to the south are. As a matter of fact they are almost as warm as summers where I am and probably as warm as or warmer for the average high!
, its May says 13.8C/1.5C which is a 7.8C average and not 8C, and its July says 25.8C/13.1C which is a 19.5C average not 19.9C. What totally neat and quality controlled climate box making
, I hope everyone who got their hopes up over Yakutsk sees this so the misconception is clarified.
