Climate talk: Europe (snowy, hot, warm, record)

[B87]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

Some models have London down for 34C while we are shown to have 23C. That is not a common occurrence. I doubt it's ever happened before.

I remember in late May 2005 it was 32c here and 11c in Edinburgh!!

The same thing happens here vs Paris. Their avg July high is 2c warmer than ours, yet they always seem to be 5-10c warmer in hot spells!

[Botev1912]

Paris has more continental influence.

[forgotten username]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

I still think Europe has warmed more than eastern North America in recent decades. If it is impossible to get weeks of cold like 1956 or 63, why do you get weeks and weeks of winter weather now much warmer than average if your winter climate is so stable? Over here we are not stable in winter, but recent winters are colder than avg here.

(western) Europe is already warmer than eastern North America in winter to begin with, so I can't really explain why colder than average conditions are so hard to come by. I would say they happen but they make up for little time in a given winter.

Actually the period from the mid-00s to around 2012/2013 had a few cold winters with some months that were below average. I remember 2004/2005, 2005/2006 2008/2009, and especially 2009/2010 and late 2010 to be cold and snowy. But yeah, 2006/2007, 2007/2008 were super mild, at least where I was at the time. Even 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 only had each one cold month (dec 2010 and Feb 2012) in otherwise super mild winters. 2012/2013 was cold but mostly from March onwards.

Maybe now we're back to a mild winter period like we did in the 90s. I remember most winters from the early 90s to about 2003 were super mild with barely a few days of snow, and I was in a climate with a 2-3c january average, which does not guarantee much snow or cold in Europe.

I also think that in winter the colder conditions are usually dry (Siberian air sneaking), while the wet conditions are often mild (atlantic influence), so snow is scarce, at least in western Europe. Cold and snowy is a difficult configuration, at least below 500 m asl.

[ben86]

Originally Posted by dunno what to put here

Some models have London down for 34C while we are shown to have 23C. That is not a common occurrence. I doubt it's ever happened before.

Sometimes there's a difference, but not an 11C difference. Like, they might be 32C and we might be 26C - that happens sometimes. A 10-11C difference between London and Scotland is relatively common.

Today reached 31C in London and 28C here. That is what you expect during 'hot weather', a 2-3C difference. London reached 33C on 19 July this year, we reached 31C. They reached 37C on 1 July 2015 and we reached 33C. That is normal. Not something stupid like 34C there and 23C here. There is no natural barrier to prevent heat from reaching here, unlike the PNW with the Cascades.

On 11 August 2003 it was 33.7C at Heathrow and 17.7C in Bingley (biggest difference I am aware of, Gravesend was 34.7C that day as well), so I looked up Leeds Weather Centre thinking that might be low twenties and it was 25.2C!

That is an absolutely insane difference between me and you considering we're talking about places no more than 15 miles and about 200 metres in height apart from each other, and considering that the Pennines really aren't that significant a natural barrier.

The Yorkshire side of the Pennines isn't normally considered NW England, though it might as well be when we're talking about the NW/SE split in summer weather given where the fronts often stall.

[overdrive1979]

Originally Posted by Botev1912

Paris has more continental influence.

It's not continental influence at all, but such French city sometimes receives hot spells coming from North Africa via Iberian peninsula. So, as there is a continuous landmass from Andalusia to Paris, such hot spells do not weak, plus they do not weak either when crossing the Mediterranean sea via Gibraltar.
Such hot spells are even stronger when crossing the Pyrenees because of foehn winds.

On the other hand, such hot spells really weak a lot when crossing the Channel, but still sometimes SE UK experience them.
For Northern Ireland and Scotland is even harder to get such hot spells coming from the Iberian peninsula.

Plus, it's the same for those amazing MCS that sometimes most of France, Benelux, western Germany and southeastern United Kingdom experience by Spanish plume thunder events.

[dunno what to put here]

Originally Posted by ben86

On 11 August 2003 it was 33.7C at Heathrow and 17.7C in Bingley (biggest difference I am aware of, Gravesend was 34.7C that day as well), so I looked up Leeds Weather Centre thinking that might be low twenties and it was 25.2C!

That is an absolutely insane difference between me and you considering we're talking about places no more than 15 miles and about 200 metres in height apart from each other, and considering that the Pennines really aren't that significant a natural barrier.

The Yorkshire side of the Pennines isn't normally considered NW England, though it might as well be when we're talking about the NW/SE split in summer weather given where the fronts often stall.

Wow, that's certainly ridiculous. Makes me remember why I wouldn't live at that elevation up here.

In my experience, during heatwaves, the heat usually reaches as far north as Leeming on the eastern side of the Pennines, and up to around Blackpool on the western side. Leeds and York are usually far enough south to benefit 9 times out of 10.

It's true that the Pennines act as a significant barrier sometimes considering their small nature. It's like in July - we had 22mm, while Manchester and Liverpool had over 70mm. Nearly all of the rain was blocked from crossing. Also yesterday afternoon, NW England was plagued by cloud but the Pennines blocked it from crossing over.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by forgotten username

(western) Europe is already warmer than eastern North America in winter to begin with, so I can't really explain why colder than average conditions are so hard to come by. I would say they happen but they make up for little time in a given winter.

Eastern North America has different winter averages depending on where so saying Western Europe is warmer is meaningless. Philadelphia has very similar winter averages as Berlin, Munich, Prague (a little colder than here), Zagreb, etc. Not sure if that is considered Western Europe or Central (I assume Central).

Anyway that is beside the point. I'm not talking about getting the same temps as we have, I'm talking about how your winters have been compared to your monthly averages. Again, when was the coldest Feb/March on record in your part of Italy? Was it in 2015, or decades ago?

If it was decades ago, then I'm asking when will Europe get a winter month that breaks the record of cold? The UK did get a December like that in 2010, but not the rest of Europe. Why are we in eastern North America having a record coldest winter month with all this supposed global warming going on? That is what I'm getting at.

It is one thing for Western Europe to have a stable winter climate, but they haven't been stable, they have been quite a bit above average the last few years, with colder than avg winters very far and few between. You would think sooner or later a winter of real cold will hit to lower those averages like here. 1956 is 60 years ago.

[ghost-likin]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Eastern North America has different winter averages depending on where so saying Western Europe is warmer is meaningless. Philadelphia has very similar winter averages as Berlin, Munich, Prague (a little colder than here), Zagreb, etc. Not sure if that is considered Western Europe or Central (I assume Central).

Anyway that is beside the point. I'm not talking about getting the same temps as we have, I'm talking about how your winters have been compared to your monthly averages. Again, when was the coldest Feb/March on record in your part of Italy? Was it in 2015, or decades ago?

If it was decades ago, then I'm asking when will Europe get a winter month that breaks the record of cold? The UK did get a December like that in 2010, but not the rest of Europe. Why are we in eastern North America having a record coldest winter month with all this supposed global warming going on? That is what I'm getting at.

It is one thing for Western Europe to have a stable winter climate, but they haven't been stable, they have been quite a bit above average the last few years, with colder than avg winters very far and few between. You would think sooner or later a winter of real cold will hit to lower those averages like here. 1956 is 60 years ago.

The same are happening with Western North America,looks like the Eastern Coast of North America and Eurasia are getting cold winters while the Western coasts the opposite.

Here in South America,the 2000s was plenty of cold waves,with 2000/2002/2004/2007/2010 and 2013 the Southern Latitudes got very cold temperature,but now look like it has finished.

[alex985]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

If it was decades ago, then I'm asking when will Europe get a winter month that breaks the record of cold? The UK did get a December like that in 2010, but not the rest of Europe.

Um what? Nearly all of Europe had record breaking cold in December 2010. During January 2010 as well. Where did you even get this idea from?

[dunno what to put here]

Tom seems to forget that much of Europe is colder than Philadelphia in winter anyway. Cities like Stockholm and Helsinki had snow on the ground from November to April in winter 2012/2013. They are more stable, but that just means snow lasts even longer because there are no crazy mild spikes.