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Old 01-04-2017, 11:15 AM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ1013 View Post
Nah. I expect average weather. If it's below average I'lol be happy, if it's above average I won't. A low of 55F during a "cold snap" (because of NE winds) is absolutely pathetic.
The weather we're getting this weekend/early next week is mostly below average, especially Saturday-Monday.


I don't expect much out of this pattern, as long as lows aren't above 65 F with this pattern of constant easterlies I'm ok with it.


And again, this is the same pattern as last year. We'll likely get stronger shots of cold air in late January/February.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:17 AM
 
Location: 30461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ1013 View Post
Upper level temps will be pretty cold (for south Florida anyway) down to 2C at 4500' this weekend, but temps are forecast to be moderated by ****ty NE winds off the 78F Atlantic. Now if the high pressure in the Midwest can just slide a bit farther west or the storm is stronger than expected and tracks closer to the coast, we may be in business.
It's just not you whose getting trolled. Warm lover muslim12 can expect lows down in the single digits Fahrenheit this weekend. He can't be too happy about that, lol.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:18 AM
 
Location: Key Biscayne, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex985 View Post
The weather we're getting this weekend/early next week is mostly below average, especially Saturday-Monday.


I don't expect much out of this pattern, as long as lows aren't above 65 F with this pattern of constant easterlies I'm ok with it.


And again, this is the same pattern as last year. We'll likely get stronger shots of cold air in late January/February.
Not according to long range models but I hope so. My point about this weekend is that it's such a waste of cold air, if winds were out of the NW we would be seeing lows around 42F, not 55F.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:23 AM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AJ1013 View Post
Not according to long range models but I hope so. My point about this weekend is that it's such a waste of cold air, if winds were out of the NW we would be seeing lows around 42F, not 55F.
Long range models are very unreliable. Not even more than a week ago it was predicting endless above normal for us, now I don't see much above normal in the next ten days with some below normal days (mostly in terms of highs) thrown in. They'll predict endless above average for us basically by default.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:31 AM
 
Location: Foreignorland 58 N, 17 E.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex985 View Post
Yeah, I don't see how that's a big mystery. (No offense)




A lot of the arctic sees their coldest temps in February/March instead of January for this reason. Also not to mention that in far northern areas (like say, above 70-75 N) the sun even in early March isn't strong enough to warm anything up.
But really by late March the sun ought to be high enough to cause 5C conditions with the right wind path on extreme occasions even in Barrow.
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Old 01-04-2017, 11:35 AM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lommaren View Post
But really by late March the sun ought to be high enough to cause 5C conditions with the right wind path on extreme occasions even in Barrow.
Late March has much higher snow/ice cover than December or early January I would assume. The albedo effect alone would likely prevent temperatures from going much above 0 C that time of year, even with all the right conditions.


The sun angle in late March in Barrow is similar to a winter solstice sun angle at about 48 N. Certainly not a very high or powerful sun.


It's similar to how late September's record lows here aren't much different from July or August. You would think with the longer nights it could produce lower lows but the very warm sea prevents that. It's the opposite of Barrow in March.

Last edited by alex985; 01-04-2017 at 11:54 AM..
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:27 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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Noon sun angle is similar, daylength isn't. Why do people focus on sunangle over daylength?

I agree the sun isn't strong enough to melt snow in barrow.

In the continental Arctic the sun in March is still a lot better more than December and able to warm. High latitude continental has low lag

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yakutsk
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:39 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
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1-3 inches of snow tomorrow night, according to Weather Underground.
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Old 01-04-2017, 12:43 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Today this is the Jet stream configuration. Pacific moisture into California, energy moving across the U.S.




Then over the weekend. SAME configuration!! California getting pounded with rain from the Pacific flow and Low. Sierra's getting hammered with snow with the constant flow

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Old 01-04-2017, 12:45 PM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,191 posts, read 11,367,600 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
Noon sun angle is similar, daylength isn't. Why do people focus on sunangle over daylength?

I agree the sun isn't strong enough to melt snow in barrow.

In the continental Arctic the sun in March is still a lot better more than December and able to warm. High latitude continental has low lag

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yakutsk
I know, I was going to point that out too, but didn't really feel like it in all honesty.


And yes, the Arctic Ocean is a big driver behind the seasonal lag in Barrow. Although if you go far enough north, even with all landmass surrounding you, you would still see a bit of a seasonal delay due to the sun being below the horizon still even into the later part of winter, the time of late February/early March (southern hemisphere late August/early September) is like a "sunrise period" of sorts.


Vostok exhibits a seasonal lag even being in a continental location:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vostok_Station#Climate
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