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Both Mortimer and ABQConvict have made good points, I think. Separate the seasonally high temps from the longer-term drought: The long-term drought has the consequences ABQConvict mentions - dry, tinder-box forests just waiting for a spark. On the other had, Mortimer is correct in asserting that a temporary spike to 70F means...nothing.
The good news [I hope] is that...remember a couple years ago when wildfires were breaking out everywhere across the west? For a good while NM was relatively unscathed. And although we eventually got it, it was not on the same scale as the rest of the west. Maybe it's because NM isn't quite as heavily wooded overall, or maybe we just don't have the critical mass of crazies who set fires, akin to CA and that place "down under."
Haven't seen any more blowing dirt out here than any other place in NM. We didn't get the dust storm here that ABQ got a couple of weekends ago.
OK I was wondering if RR had the same issues as the west side/west mesa had with dirt or if it were built up/vegetated enough that there was not as much of an issue.
I still hate dirt season. Summer of 2007, in June, we had a beautifully warm day with wind gusts in the 60s. It was pretty warm out, but I had to keep the windows closed and could not really go outside. That stunk.
But the temperatures for February have been considerably above average (5-10+ degrees) for 13 out of the 26 days so far this month and we have had virtually no precipitation.
January had 18 days out of 31 of considerably above average temperatures with 9 days being 10 degrees or more above average. And again, virtually 0.00 precipitation in most parts of the city.
This is shaping up to be in the top of the list of driest winters on record. The unseasonal temperatures over the last two months has increased the amount of transpiration (water transfer from vegetation and earth to the atmosphere) thus creating fire-prone conditions. The warmer/earlier temps will also benefit the reproduction success of damaging insects and harm the production of protective sap in the trees leading to greater rates of forest die-off compounding the forest fire fuel issue.
So, I am predicting a bad fire season. It may not come to pass. We may have the rainiest March in 2,000 years and I'll start b*tching about the mold and my sagging, leaking roof. But I'm putting my money on the forest fires.
Oh, and there is one other downside to these weather patterns that I forgot to mention. These prolonged warm periods in the winter cause fruiting trees to put forth their fruiting structures early. When the inevitable late frost comes, those buds die and the trees produce a fraction of the fruit they would normally. This has already happened several times in the last decade and another winter like this may spell the end of Northern New Mexico's 200+ year apple industry.
I wouldn't call this scaremongering. Scaremongering is generally used to instigate some sort of action. I don't see much we can do about this. But it grates on me to here people cheering on weather-related ecological disasters so I feel compelled to describe the situation as I see it.
You said "inferno" which I thought was referring to the absolute temperatures.
Then Cathy4017 chimed in with the "likely to be a horrible summer" stuff and I just had to insert that word.
I HAD to. She's always baiting me. Always.
... driest winters on record. ..,. I am predicting a bad fire season. ....
That's probably a reasonable guess with high probability, but not a guarantee.
On the other hand, we could revert to the norm by averaging out the deviation from "normal" or "average" and have an extended period of time from Jul 20-Aug 10 where the temperatures are all ten degrees under the average.
I like a 70 degree day as much as the next guy, but all of you people positively glowing about it must realize that weather like this in February translates to the whole state becoming an inferno in about a month. That means property loss, terrible air quality from all the smoke, habitat loss, money lost for people who make their living in tourism/hunting/fishing, etc.....(truncated)ABQConvict
Indeed, well written. It's very dry in Arizona, Nevada, Southern California, and also Colorado.
Thanks to a very persistent ridge of high pressure since early February.
Sometimes, when Arizona and Southern California are in a drought, Colorado and New Mexico receive N, NW, and NE influences that can result in significant snow.
Not the case with this ridge, with a persistent dry WSW flow aloft over the four corners states. :-(
Last year I don't remember the upper level winds, but spring was also very warm for AZ and NM.
There is not much snow left in either Flagstaff or Boulder.
We need snow immediately and everywhere.
If we don't get it, we can hope for an early and long monsoon season.
Can anyone tell me roughly what the weather is like come late March? My wife and I have been talking about flying out there and visiting her family while also checking out some potential neighborhoods if we do plan to move their come later this year. Cheers...
Like Berncohomes says, the climate "normals" would suggest highs in the mid to upper 60s that time of year. Late March mornings are typically in the mid to upper 30s. That said...there is an old saying, "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get." Just be aware that, in late March, we can experience anything from unseasonably-warm highs in the high 70s...to a snowstorm...or more likely...one of those days with southwest winds gusting to 60 mph kicking up some dust and pollen. My advice would be to go ahead and plan to visit, but check out the latest weather info in the days leading up to your trip.
Excellent. I can deal with those temps. Its usually near high 30s/ low 40's in NY around that time.
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New Mexico / Arizona Drought
