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As a Brazilian I believe my country is making a serious mistake by aligning itself with the dictatorships of Russia and China in this BRICS nonsense.
Brazil is a Western democracy with Western democratic values, and therefore should be firmly in the Western democratic bloc. Russia and China are anti-democratic forces in the world, and work to undermine democracy around the world. Brazil has no place in any "strategic bloc" with those countries, at least not while those countries are under their current political regimes.
As a Brazilian I believe my country is making a serious mistake by aligning itself with the dictatorships of Russia and China in this BRICS nonsense.
Brazil is a Western democracy with Western democratic values, and therefore should be firmly in the Western democratic bloc. Russia and China are anti-democratic forces in the world, and work to undermine democracy around the world. Brazil has no place in any "strategic bloc" with those countries, at least not while those countries are under their current political regimes.
Brazil's number one trading partner is China, the exports of Brazil to China have increased at an annualized rate of 17.6%, from $1.31B in 1995 to $88.3B in 2021. Brazil expects to triple that by the end of this decade.
Compared to the annualized trade with the US at the rate of only 4.71%, from $9.12B in 1995 to $30.2B in 2021. By the end of the decade it most likely that the growth will be minimal. "money talks, bullsh*t walks" famous Chinese proverb.
OP don't put too much stock in working with democracies. International relations are governed by interest period. The talk of working with other democracies is just a ploy by elites to gather public support. The U.S. works with plenty of authoritative governments (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc.), and has supported plenty of authoritative governments in the past. I look at Brazil's move through the lens of geopolitics. The U.S. sees Brazil along with the rest of Latin America as its backyard. The U.S. has time and time and again used economic and military tools to keep Latin American governments in check. Brazil is likely only seeking ways to mitigate these exposures, looking towards China makes sense. China is their largest trading partner, a economic partnership that lends much needed diversity from Western markets which comes with the possibility of harsh sanctions for defying Western interest. China isn't going around accusing countries of corruption or telling them what they can and can't do with their resources (the rainforest). So if you are truly a Brazilian and care about the nation's future, you may wish to rethink your stance. On the other hand, if you have lived in the U.S. forever and drunk the "cool aid" to the point you believe U.S. interest are what best for Latin America and the world then by all means continue your current line of thinking.
OP don't put too much stock in working with democracies. International relations are governed by interest period. The talk of working with other democracies is just a ploy by elites to gather public support. The U.S. works with plenty of authoritative governments (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc.), and has supported plenty of authoritative governments in the past. I look at Brazil's move through the lens of geopolitics. The U.S. sees Brazil along with the rest of Latin America as its backyard. The U.S. has time and time and again used economic and military tools to keep Latin American governments in check. Brazil is likely only seeking ways to mitigate these exposures, looking towards China makes sense. China is their largest trading partner, a economic partnership that lends much needed diversity from Western markets which comes with the possibility of harsh sanctions for defying Western interest. China isn't going around accusing countries of corruption or telling them what they can and can't do with their resources (the rainforest). So if you are truly a Brazilian and care about the nation's future, you may wish to rethink your stance. On the other hand, if you have lived in the U.S. forever and drunk the "cool aid" to the point you believe U.S. interest are what best for Latin America and the world then by all means continue your current line of thinking.
I am pretty certain the OP is actually a Brazilian living/residing in Brazil. So your claims he/she isn't very Brazilian are dead on arrival.
The problem is that the Brics as a currency bloc is an attempt to join one economic superpower in China with a potential one in India with three essentially stagnant commodity exporters.
In 2001 when the term was first coined, China accounted for about half the original four-country bloc’s gross domestic product measured at market rates (South Africa was added in 2010).
The most recent IMF data puts China’s share at about 73 per cent (72 per cent if South Africa is added in). Talk about asymetrical relationships.
In seeking to challenge US hegemony in foreign exchange, the non-Chinese members of BRICS would just increase their dependence on Beijing, a much more problematic and unpredictable hegemony.
The US is far from perfect but at least it has a 100 year track record with a much more transparent central bank. Look at all of human human history and which financial/monetary system has shown more resiliency, transparency and stability? It is the U.S. without any other country or group of countries coming close.
The EURO has proven how hard it is for many like-minded countries to band together to create currency to compete with the US dollar. Germany and Greece often have very different priorities and needs. That would only be magnified by the BRICs countries and the other nefarious autocratic/non-transparent regimes who are reportedly interested in joining.
The OP's instincts are right. Wait for another / better alternative to China's non-transparent autocratic whims.
Astral_Weeks is correct, I'm Brazilian, born from Brazilian parents, and lived in Brazil for my whole life.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ice_Major
OP don't put too much stock in working with democracies. International relations are governed by interest period. The talk of working with other democracies is just a ploy by elites to gather public support. The U.S. works with plenty of authoritative governments (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, etc.)
I'm not against "working" with countries with authoritarian governments when necessary, including on trade issues. But there is no reason for Brazil to become part of any "strategic bloc" wih Russia and China, specially when those countries are clearly working to undermine democracy in several parts of the world. The idea of BRICS makes no sense, it's completelly artificial. Brazil is a country with liberal democratic values, a country with a free press, a country with same-sex marriage, much more aligned, in terms of values, to Western Europe and North America.
I am pretty certain the OP is actually a Brazilian living/residing in Brazil. So your claims he/she isn't very Brazilian are dead on arrival.
The problem is that the Brics as a currency bloc is an attempt to join one economic superpower in China with a potential one in India with three essentially stagnant commodity exporters.
In 2001 when the term was first coined, China accounted for about half the original four-country bloc’s gross domestic product measured at market rates (South Africa was added in 2010).
The most recent IMF data puts China’s share at about 73 per cent (72 per cent if South Africa is added in). Talk about asymetrical relationships.
In seeking to challenge US hegemony in foreign exchange, the non-Chinese members of BRICS would just increase their dependence on Beijing, a much more problematic and unpredictable hegemony.
The US is far from perfect but at least it has a 100 year track record with a much more transparent central bank. Look at all of human human history and which financial/monetary system has shown more resiliency, transparency and stability? It is the U.S. without any other country or group of countries coming close.
The EURO has proven how hard it is for many like-minded countries to band together to create currency to compete with the US dollar. Germany and Greece often have very different priorities and needs. That would only be magnified by the BRICs countries and the other nefarious autocratic/non-transparent regimes who are reportedly interested in joining.
The OP's instincts are right. Wait for another / better alternative to China's non-transparent autocratic whims.
FYI, I never said the OP wasn't Brazilian. You are ignoring the weaponization of the U.S. dollar in recent decades. Having a 100-year track record of transparency, means nothing if tomorrow a nation can be cut off simply for making policy decisions deemed unfavorable to U.S. interest. Holding dollar reserves or purely conducting trade in dollars has become a liability. You can’t ignore this fact. Interestingly 42% of the world's population lives in a nation under U.S. sanctions.
I'm not arguing that Brazil should abandon the U.S. for China, nor do I believe that is the current government policy. I am arguing for diversification. It makes no sense to strictly align with the U.S. on shared values. The U.S. doesn’t, why should everyone else? Besides, Brazil has been mostly aligned with Washington for decades, and what has that gotten them.
While China is certainly the dominant member of the BLOC, once again China isn't going around using its currency to punish others and has kept its dealing with Brazil to purely economic matters. You are right the U.S. isn't prefect, it's flat out horrible in its international relations, especially in its policy towards many Latin American countries. Besides what is the alternative they should wait for? U.S. actions have shown Washington doesn't want to allow an alternative.
Astral_Weeks is correct, I'm Brazilian, born from Brazilian parents, and lived in Brazil for my whole life.
I'm not against "working" with countries with authoritarian governments when necessary, including on trade issues. But there is no reason for Brazil to become part of any "strategic bloc" wih Russia and China, specially when those countries are clearly working to undermine democracy in several parts of the world. The idea of BRICS makes no sense, it's completelly artificial. Brazil is a country with liberal democratic values, a country with a free press, a country with same-sex marriage, much more aligned, in terms of values, to Western Europe and North America.
My apologies if my earlier post was interrupted as me not calling you Brazilian. That was not my intention. I understand your points. While I understand them, just believe it does no good for Brazil to align itself with the U.S. based upon some notion of shared values. Saying Brazil is forming some anti-U.S. bloc is an exaggeration. They are merely doing what other nations do, which is look after their own interest. Brazil is likely just hedging its bets. There are many that believe the world is once again returning to a multi-polar makeup. In such an environment it will do Brazil no good to be staunchly in the U.S. camp. The nations prospering in such a climate will be those that are able to weave in-between the great powers extracting concessions from all parties.
The EURO has proven how hard it is for many like-minded countries to band together to create currency to compete with the US dollar. Germany and Greece often have very different priorities and needs. That would only be magnified by the BRICs countries and the other nefarious autocratic/non-transparent regimes who are reportedly interested in joining.
The OP's instincts are right. Wait for another / better alternative to China's non-transparent autocratic whims.
This hits the nail on the head. Although I suppose for big governmental transactions and big business transactions it helps to bypass the dollar.
Americans will be poor overnight? Following Putin's advice? Is that the aim?
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