AZ liveable after the Climate-change? (Tucson, Green Valley: credit, school, allergy)

[azloafer]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The global models are complete nonsense and pure speculatation - grad student stuff. No one knows with even the most minimal certainty what impact global warming might have on climate. Looking even three months out is not much better than guesswork or the Farmer's Almanac. Look at last year's hurricane predictions and this year's "El Nino" - wrong on both counts. The mechanisms are simply too complex and poorly understood to develop reliable models. Properly initialized, the models can make for exciting headlines, though. About all that can be said is it'll be warmer, on average, with global warming. Anyone who makes a property decision based on today's global warming models is - well I won't even say it.

If we can't believe Al Gore, who can we believe?

[sablebaby]

I believe in the global warming theories. I say what's the big deal about believing it? We should try to conserve our world anyway, right? How can a person believe that the crap we put out in the air isn't doing any harm? We can't go on with the emissions and expect our world to go on forever.

[Ponderosa]

It's not a question of believing whether global warming is happening, it's a question of accepting mathematical models that purport to predict the global climate outcomes of global warming. Scientific understanding of global climate is so sparse and the models so weak that very little confidence should be placed in any specific predictions of the various models. That was my point. That and how absurd it would be to base a property sale or purchase decision on these climate models.

People ought to be more concerned about whether AZ is liveable today and how to deal with the threats that are certain instead of getting worked up over flaky mathematical projections about what the temperatures or rainfall are going to be decades from now.

[Najt]

Originally Posted by Ponderosa

The mechanisms are simply too complex and poorly understood to develop reliable models.

Perhaps not for everyone.

It's not a question of believing whether global warming is happening, it's a question of accepting mathematical models that purport to predict the global climate outcomes of global warming. Scientific understanding of global climate is so sparse and the models so weak that very little confidence should be placed in any specific predictions of the various models. That was my point. That and how absurd it would be to base a property sale or purchase decision on these climate models.
People ought to be more concerned about whether AZ is liveable today and how to deal with the threats that are certain instead of getting worked up over flaky mathematical projections about what the temperatures or rainfall are going to be decades from now.

If we wait longer it will probably be to late, if its not already. It will not cost much as an insurance for our survival.
And this is only one small factor yes, I'm more concerned of the heat, water, crimerate, guns and lethal animals we dont have here where we can freeze to death instead. But I always buy to stay forever, its not healthy moving to much. Propertylosses cant be fun, I'm not that rich.
Be lucky to live in US with a lot of choices, the same money and language, its a bit worse in EU and the old dreams of Spain is now cheaper Thailand, but they have another alphabet and some muslim problems.

[Najt]

Originally Posted by sablebaby

I believe in the global warming theories. I say what's the big deal about believing it? We should try to conserve our world anyway, right? How can a person believe that the crap we put out in the air isn't doing any harm? We can't go on with the emissions and expect our world to go on forever.

Yes upon natural cycles are all new emissions.

Warmer climate will also heat up frozen methane-gas, as are at least 10 times worse than CO2, then it gets warmer and more will come ut etc. and so on.

[norm]

Don't worry after California falls into the Pacific Arizona will have beachfront property and cooling ocean breezes.

[Najt]

Originally Posted by norm

Don't worry after California falls into the Pacific Arizona will have beachfront property and cooling ocean breezes.

Until then, I guess SD also will get hot and most of CA have earthquake-risks.

[chionactis]

whatever the case, I believe that it is going to be hotter here simply based on the fact that with all of the sprawl comes more concrete and asphalt, which will retain the suns heat and make it hotter in these areas. With the sprawl comes the destruction of what little green there is in the way of trees, shrubs, farms, etc. And since it will be hotter, the rains may evaporate before they hit these areas. This is happening already, right? People who have lived here a long time will tell you that during monsoon season in the summer, it'd rain practically every day. I don't know as I've been here only 7 years, but it seems that the rains form and hit the outskirts but typically pass us by. whatever the case may be and the reasons for it, I am glad to be leaving. It is too hot, too dry, too dusty and that brown cloud cannot be good for the lungs...

[AZ_singlemother]

Western Washington used to have blizzards in the winter time - where I grew up as a kid, used to have fun in the snow. It rarely snows in that same area.

We have to face up that we do not know what consequences we are going to face from our environmental damages in the future. This is something we need to be concerned about today for our future.

[Najt]

Yes we have climate-migration now as will turn around and we will get climate-refugees