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In the case of a Taiwan invasion the major economies of the world would blockade and sanction China just as it did to Russia. China just witnessed what happened to Russia and wants no part of that, since China itself is an export-based economy.
China may end up with unfettered access to Siberian oil, gas and water if they play the Russian-Ukraine war right and get lucky. They would much rather have that than fight over Taiwan.
Want to have a ridiculous thought?..... Think that all those Taiwanese workers working making all those chips are going to continue working after China just killed all their countrymen.
Yeah. Kinda hard to imagine. And China cannot run the factories themselves. If they could they would have built their own.
there is a reason for the belt and road, builing hsr connect to se asia, investment in africa and working with the middle east.
as time goes on, the west's influence on china's economy would decrease as it has been the last 5-10 years.
as for the "workers"? no one cares about the workers, it's the tech. but I can assure you that the US would destroy any thing valuable tech wise before tw reunites with china. that's the plan all along.
That’s because, from where the US sits, the “good guys” are winning. Heck, if half of Ukraine--or possibly all of Ukraine--were occupied by Russia, it’s still a big fat “W” for the United States and its allies. Putin’s adventurism was a jackpot for the USA and its interests.
Hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers,
the Russian military gutted
an intelligence bonanza regarding the capability (or lack thereof) of modern Russian weapons
A massive boost to member NATO nations’ military spending
A even bigger boost to NATO with the Swedes and Fins clamoring to be let in.
The “free world” aligned in sanctions against Russia.
All of this at zero political cost, and practically no actual cost to the United States.
That said, none of this justifies the loss of life and destruction caused by a war of aggression in Ukraine or Taiwan. The USA wins, but most of the people of the United States would rather not remain citizens of the undisputed hegemon at the cost of hundreds of thousands of foreign lives, but we will, if the dictators in charge of Russia and China insist.
Military and political analysis were wholly convinced that Ukraine would quickly fall to Russia and that the Russians would then slowly be bled out by trying to maintain their occupation of their next-door neighbor.
It made sense,
Ukraine was fractured, partially carved up by Russian covert (and not-so-covert) action.
It was thought to be deeply infiltrated by Russian operatives. It had a weak, unpopular, pro-western democratic government that had recently replaced a semi-despotic pro-russian government and lost a major chunk of territory to Russia.
The west was unwilling to ship advanced/heavy arms, fighters, radars, and missiles to Ukraine prior to the invasion.
Their military was in poor shape and most of their defenses were pointed (or at least designed to be pointed) to the West. Two decades ago, it was unimaginable that Russia would invade Ukraine.
Nobody thinks conquering Taiwan will be as easy as Ukraine was supposed to be.
The island has been actively fortified against Chinese invasion since before 1950
Politically, the Taiwanese are totally unified against Chinese aggression. No one welcomes the Mainlanders unless they’re coming as tourists. The KMT wants de-escalation and trade, but they still buy weapons when they’re in charge, just in case that doesn’t work. Not a single speck of Taiwan territory would be as easy to carve off as was the Donbas or Crimea.
The west has/is/will be generally happy to sell Taiwan modern, effective, integrated defensive and offensive equipment. Compare all the hand-wringing over shipping Abrams tanks and F-16’s to Ukraine--as it was being invaded by Russia--to the paucity of wrangling over selling the same equipment to Taiwan long before Putin reminded us that dictatorships do not have to act rationally. I think it’s a safe bet that the weapons floodgates will open as wide as they’ll go the second a Chinese military build-up to invasion starts.
The big hope for the PRC is that the Taiwanese won’t be willing to fight for their freedom. The west can put a weapon into every willing hand, but that won’t matter if there aren’t any hands willing. Well, that might have been the case before HK’ers came flooding into Taiwan warning just what “One country, two systems” really means. System Option 1: Join ours. System Option 2: Go to Prison. Despots always seem to think that their people are stronger because they suffer through their abuses and deprivations, and that democracy and that too much freedom has made democratic peoples not do what humans naturally do when their homes, friends, and families are threatened. Putin clearly thought so. The people of Ukraine have dispossessed him of that notion. I’d put my money on the Taiwanese people acting like humans too.
actually, there are two islands that are so close to the mainland that a taiwanese soldier just swim across and defected just couple days ago.
those two islands are essentially there for the taking any time the chinese want to start the process.
and no, the weapons we sell to the taiwanese are decades old because we don't really trust the taiwanese (never have, never will). everything that tw does, is purely for politics, nothing to do with acting like humans or not.
on Aug 9, 2022
President Biden signs CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 into law
~ youtube.com/watch?v=m-ZjNdeKemU
TSMC of Taiwan build two chip factories in the US, and one in Japan.
South Korea’s SK Hynix and Samsung also launch new facilities in the US. Below are the latest news from them.
S. Korea's chip industry faces downturn with external situation putting more burden Mar 9, 2023
Tonight, we take a closer look at South Korea's chip industry and its prospects.
It's because the nation's key export item seems to be going through a hard time in recent months as external factors increase their burden.
~ youtube.com/watch?v=zDrLjqSVc5w
S. Korean trade minister in U.S. to discuss 'concerns' over U.S. Chips Act
Mar 8, 2023
~ youtube.com/watch?v=NE2j0B1s4IQ
..
Quote:
~ youtube.com/watch?v=v4I_ILm1PV8
US congressional delegation to sit with President Tsai
民視英語新聞 Formosa TV English News
Mar 15, 2023
The Head of the Defense Subcommittee of the U.S. House Committee on Appropriations, Ken Calvert, is in Taiwan leading a congressional delegation with five other representatives. They’ll be here for just two days, but are scheduled to meet with President Tsai Ing-wen, National Security Council Secretary-General Wellington Koo and Minister of Foreign Affairs Joseph Wu. Together they will discuss the strengthening of bilateral security cooperation and trade. Destroying TSMC
The delegation comes amid strong support for Taiwan in the U.S., but also amid questionable comments from former U.S. National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien. The former official was quoted in article on news website Semafor as saying that the U.S. would destroy Taiwan’s semiconductor industry before letting it be captured by China. He added that letting China control plants owned by TSMC would allow Beijing to control the world economy, which is why the U.S. would never let those factories fall into Chinese hands.
According to a report by Taiwan’s Central News Agency, O’Brien has since changed his tune, saying that only Chinese leader Xi Jinping wants to destroy Taiwan. The official is also reported to have said that claims that the U.S. poses a threat to Taiwan are Chinese propaganda.
At the meeting mentioned in the article below, TSMC Founder was quoted by non-English media that "China's chip technology is behind Taiwan by 5 to 6 years."
https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4837274
'To understand semiconductors, world must understand Taiwan and TSMC':
Chris Miller, American author joins TSMC founder to discuss polarization of industry, rapid growth
By Jono Thomson, Taiwan News, Staff Writer
2023/03/16
In the case of a Taiwan invasion the major economies of the world would blockade and sanction China just as it did to Russia. China just witnessed what happened to Russia and wants no part of that, since China itself is an export-based economy.
China may end up with unfettered access to Siberian oil, gas and water if they play the Russian-Ukraine war right and get lucky. They would much rather have that than fight over Taiwan.
Want to have a ridiculous thought?..... Think that all those Taiwanese workers working making all those chips are going to continue working after China just killed all their countrymen.
Yeah. Kinda hard to imagine. And China cannot run the factories themselves. If they could they would have built their own.
Shouldn't be difficult to find self-interested people. Take WWII for example. Many German scientist went to work in the U.S. and Soviet Union rocket programs after the war despite those two countries killing their fellow countrymen. Japan had two nukes dropped on it killing tens of thousands of civilians, yet they still cooperated with the U.S. after the war and to this very day. Doesn't sound so ridiculous now. China does have its own chip making factories. Why do people assume China doesn't have the ability to make chips. They just can't manufacture the most advanced ones at this point.
China is basically large scale sanction proof at this point in time. Other economies can try, but will have to contend with skyrocketing inflation (worse than now) and other major disruptions. These sanctions have thus far failed on Russia. Having a hard time believing they will be more affective against China.
Shouldn't be difficult to find self-interested people. Take WWII for example. Many German scientist went to work in the U.S. and Soviet Union rocket programs after the war despite those two countries killing their fellow countrymen. Japan had two nukes dropped on it killing tens of thousands of civilians, yet they still cooperated with the U.S. after the war and to this very day. Doesn't sound so ridiculous now. China does have its own chip making factories. Why do people assume China doesn't have the ability to make chips. They just can't manufacture the most advanced ones at this point.
China is basically large scale sanction proof at this point in time. Other economies can try, but will have to contend with skyrocketing inflation (worse than now) and other major disruptions. These sanctions have thus far failed on Russia. Having a hard time believing they will be more affective against China.
Japan:
Japan surrendered. Like Germany, they had no choice but to do as they were told. To America's credit, the US market was opened to them both. That's how all countries become wealthy. Including China.
China:
China has an export based economy. 100's of billion of dollars going both ways. The mere mention of tariffs sent China into a tizzy. They have no appetite for the boycotts and sanctions Russia is experiencing.
In 2021 China imported 417 billion chips. That's why "people assume China doesn't have the ability to make chips". Sounds perfectly valid to me.
If they keep jacking around we should refuse to sell China chips.
Japan surrendered. Like Germany, they had no choice but to do as they were told. To America's credit, the US market was opened to them both. That's how all countries become wealthy. Including China.
China:
China has an export based economy. 100's of billion of dollars going both ways. The mere mention of tariffs sent China into a tizzy. They have no appetite for the boycotts and sanctions Russia is experiencing.
In 2021 China imported 417 billion chips. That's why "people assume China doesn't have the ability to make chips". Sounds perfectly valid to me.
If they keep jacking around we should refuse to sell China chips.
actually it's the american business that's paying for the tarriffs
out of the 417 billion chips they imported in 2021, how much of that do you think it was built into products that was exported?
like you said it's 100's of billions of dollars going both ways. are you using a iphone? how you think it was made? that's right, with one of those 417 billion chips that were imported.
the moment the we "sanctions" china, my apple and hp stock will tank. So will all of your 401k's, assuming you have one. and people will jump off buildings like great depression all over again.
of course china would make less money when that happens, as they would export to other countries for less profits.
what about us? i mean, if you want to pay $5k for an iphone, go for it.
To me, higher tariffs mean passing the bucks to the consumers.
The US Treasury Secretary is smart and experienced. Taiwan news reported that she initially wanted to lift some of the tariffs, to tackle the high inflation at home, but was vetoed by the Trade Representative. Tai is a history major, taught ESL in China and immigrants at home!!! Oh well, raising interest rates would fix inflation, never mind the domino effect on the banking system!!!
In the 50s, U.S. trained Chinese scientist Qian Xuesen of Caltech was under house arrest for 5 years after being accused of Communist sympathies. He was deported to China, and subsequently helped establish China’s ballistic missile and aerospace programs.
Then in 2018, Trumph launched the China Initiative.
By the time Biden comes in to power, at least 1,400 US-based ethnic Chinese scientists switched their affiliation from American to Chinese institutions in 2021.
Feb 16, 2022
Another Asian American woman is murdered in the US, but Western media sycophants still refuse to see a link between this violence and the massive increase in anti-China media reports there, and ASPI’s self-titled Google Maps expert Nathan Ruser, mad that his amateur report has been debunked, has come to their defense. Also today, an American athlete says he was blocked from Twitter for criticizing US media reports on Beijing 2022. Let’s get reporting!
~ youtube.com/watch?v=l9K7g6BAtug
Jan 23, 2023
Amid an increase in attacks targeting Asian Americans, the Asian American community in the US is on the edge once again after a gunman killed 10 people during Lunar New Year celebrations in California.
~ youtube.com/watch?v=OGKUEo2Am0Q
Taiwan is civilized China. PRC is China infested by communism. Chinese civilization is symbolized by Confuciuism, not communism. PRC is not civilized, it is barbaric. People live in PRC without dignity. They can only survive by selling their dignity for food. If US allow PRC to take over Taiwan, Chinese civilization will die.
Japan surrendered. Like Germany, they had no choice but to do as they were told. To America's credit, the US market was opened to them both. That's how all countries become wealthy. Including China.
China:
China has an export based economy. 100's of billion of dollars going both ways. The mere mention of tariffs sent China into a tizzy. They have no appetite for the boycotts and sanctions Russia is experiencing.
In 2021 China imported 417 billion chips. That's why "people assume China doesn't have the ability to make chips". Sounds perfectly valid to me.
If they keep jacking around we should refuse to sell China chips.
I said it before and you are proving my point, Japan is a modern-day vassal state. Sadly, everyone realizes it but the Japanese. Trying to sanction China will cut both ways. Inflation, supply disruptions, and higher rates of unemployment awaits the countries that try. After the Russian sanctions fiasco and I'm surprise people still believe in the West sanction power. Those tricks don’t work on powerful countries. We are all still waiting for that Russian collapse. Ask yourself a question, if it were so easy, why haven't they done it yet. I mean China apparently commits genocide and violates human rights. Isn’t that just cause for heavy sanctions? As the world continues to become multipolar and dollarize, sanctions will be even less affect.
China can make chips, just hasn't had a compelling reason to ramp up production until now. Trying to hit China with a chip ban is only going increase the rate of moving away from Western based tech systems and platforms depriving countries such as the Netherlands, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan of future revenue. Just look at space exploration. China now has its own space station and is sending probes to Mars. These achievements despite facing embargo on space tech from the U.S.
......... Those tricks don’t work on powerful countries. We are all still waiting for that Russian collapse.........
You thought it would happen on your schedule?
What, you look out the window, don't see it happening, so it won't ever happen?
China has seen what happened to Russia. They want no part of that.
Russia has been destroyed.
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