Frontrunner GA Lt. Gov. Cagle raises nearly $7 million in gubernatorial bid (Atlanta: school, move)
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The four Republican candidates to replace Brian Kemp as Secretary of State participated in a forum at Gwinnett Place Mall on Monday night.
One big subject that seemed to come up on multiple occasions was the rising stakes of the 2018 Secretary of State race because of growing concern by Republicans and conservatives that Georgia's statewide political environment will be growing more competitive because of the changing demographics that appear to have the state trending heavily towards purple/swing state status in the not-too-distant future.
The candidates expressed the importance of keeping the Georgia Secretary of State's office under GOP control because they felt that the office (which controls many aspects of election operations at the state level) is the key to future Democratic Party competitiveness and control of Georgia state politics.
The candidates also advocated for a system of paper balloting and paper voting receipts.
The candidates also addressed the other important functions of the Secretary of State's office (like annual business and non-profit registrations and incorporations, registrations of licensed securities and investment advisors, assisting professional licensing boards, etc.) while citing areas where they felt that improvements where needed in the office... Particularly in the wake of the massive voter data breach that happened under the watch of current Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp.
The GOP Secretary of State candidate forum included conservative firebrand Georgia Republican state Senator Joshua McKoon of Columbus, Georgia Republican state representatives Buzz Brockway of Lawrenceville and Brad Raffensperger of Johns Creek, and former Alpharetta mayor David Belle Isle, was hosted by the Gwinnett Republican Women at the Gwinnett County Republican Party Headquarters in Gwinnett Place Mall.
The primary elections for both parties for the Secretary of State's office as well as other statewide, congressional and local offices will be on May 22.
In addition to the four aforementioned Republican candidates, there are three other candidates on the Democratic side which include former Georgia U.S. Congressman John Barrow of Athens, former Georgia state Representative Dee Dawkins-Haigler, and former Rockdale County Tax Commissioner Rakeim “RJ” Hadley.
The Pa win should give GA democrats hope and strategy. Hold on Georgia its not over yet, and Republicans winning wont be an automatic shoe in.
That's a really good point that the performance of Democrat Conor Lamb in the special election in the deeply conservative southwest Pennsylvania 18th Congressional District should give Democrats hope in the 2018 gubernatorial election in Georgia.
...And the performance of Conor Lamb in the special election in southwest Pennsylvania most certainly does give Democrats hope to improve their performance in the 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election.
That is also a really good point that Republicans will not be an automatic shoo-in to dominate the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle like they have dominated in the last 4 gubernatorial election cycles in Georgia.
Georgia Democrats will certainly have the opportunity to improve their electoral outcomes in the 2018 gubernatorial election cycle in an environment that looks like it may be challenging for Republicans.
Though, I do not know if Democrats are yet to the point where they can win 50 percent-plus-one in a statewide race in Georgia.
At this particular point in time, Democrats appear to need more statewide organization and more ability to turnout base voters on a larger scale in their strongest area (metro Atlanta).
It would also help greatly if Democrats could increase their appeal with more moderate white suburban voters, something which appears that they might be able to improve upon given that their 2018 gubernatorial nominee is going to be a woman (Stacey Abrams or Stacey Evans).
But overall, even with the possibly challenging environment nationally for Republicans, Democrats still appear to be underdogs to win a statewide race in Georgia.
Democrats will have the opportunity to get within 10 points and potentially even within 5 points of Republicans in some key statewide races (most notably the Gubernatorial, Lt. Gubernatorial and Secretary of State races) if things break perfectly for the Democrats.
But Democrats appear to still have a significant amount of work to do to have a legitimate shot of getting to 50% + 1 in a statewide race at this point in time.
With still nearly 8 months until election day, Democrats will certainly have the opportunity to continue to improve upon improved statewide performances in 2014 and 2016, but it still very much appears to be an uphill battle for Democrats to have a legitimate shot at coming out ahead in a statewide race.
At this particular point in time (with still many wild twists and turns to go in the nearly 8 months until Election Day, particularly with an unpredictable Donald Trump as President), I personally expect Democrats to potentially make some modest but noticeable gains across-the-board, particularly in state Senate and House races where they will have the opportunity to possibly gain a handful of seats in an environment that is heavily gerrymandered to keep their legislative numbers as low as possible.
I think that Democrats will have the opportunity to put a slight bit more distance between Republicans and the two-thirds (67%) supermajorities that they have had in recent years in both chambers of the Georgia General Assembly.
Democrats will also have an outside shot at winning a statewide contest in either the Gubernatorial, Lt. Gubernatorial or Secretary of State races if things go really, really bad for Republicans. But otherwise, Republicans will continue to be the favorites to win all statewide races in Georgia this year.
Tom Crawford: The 2018 Elections Will Be Georgia's Most Competitive in Years
Veteran Georgia political reporter Tom Crawford predicts that the 2018 elections will be the most competitive state elections in Georgia in at least 12 years.
Crawford writes that Democrats appear like they could be more competitive this year and that Georgia could take a step in the direction of having a true two-party system.
Republican Georgia state Senator and Lt. gubernatorial candidate Rick Jeffares of Henry County (Locust Grove/McDonough) recently told a gathering of Oconee County Republicans that he doesn't expect the GOP to lose any statewide offices in the November 2018 election and that the party is likely to control Georgia state politics for at least 8 to 12 more years.
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Rick Jeffares, running for Georgia lieutenant governor, told Oconee County Republicans that he doesn’t expect the Republicans to lose any state offices in November and that the party is likely to control state politics for at least eight to 12 more years.
Senator Jeffares probably may be right about the outcome of the state elections this November as it relates to Republicans probably not losing any state offices in the 2018 elections. But Jeffares should have told that gathering of Oconee County Republicans that "the GOP maybe could stay in power for up to 12 more years?"
Jeffares should have told that gathering of Oconee County Republicans that "the GOP maybe could stay in power for up to 12 more years?" because Georgia's racial and ethnic demographics look a lot more like the demographics of a blue state than a red state at this point in time.
With Georgia's demographics looking a lot like the deep-blue Mid Atlantic/South Atlantic state of Maryland than the surrounding deep-red Southeastern states of Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina, along with the current volatile political environment for Republicans, there definitely is no guarantee that the Republican Party will continue to control Georgia state politics for 8 to 12 more years.
With Georgia's current demographic makeup (a demographic makeup which continues to change and evolve to become more diverse), 8-12 years is definitely entirely too long of a period to predict that the Republican Party will continue to hold power in a state where the demographics continue to trend heavily away from them.
Jeffares' statement that Republicans will continue to hold control of Georgia state politics for the next 12 years was just him comforting a group of conservative Republican exurban voters with statements that they want to hear.
If Jeffares' name sounds familiar, that is because Jeffares was the first Georgia state legislator to publicly denounce Delta Airlines for disassociating from the NRA before Georgia Republican Lt. Governor, state Senate President and gubernatorial candidate Casey Cagle publicly denounced Delta in a tweet last month.
Last edited by Born 2 Roll; 03-16-2018 at 04:12 AM..
Location: Atlanta, Birmingham, Charlotte, and Raleigh
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Born 2 Roll
Republican Georgia state Senator and Lt. gubernatorial candidate Rick Jeffares of Henry County (Locust Grove/McDonough) recently told a gathering of Oconee County Republicans that he doesn't expect the GOP to lose any statewide offices in the November 2018 election and that the party is likely to control Georgia state politics for at least 8 to 12 more years.
Senator Jeffares probably may be right about the outcome of the state elections this November as it relates to Republicans probably not losing any state offices in the 2018 elections. But Jeffares should have told that gathering of Oconee County Republicans that "the GOP maybe could stay in power for up to 12 more years?"
Jeffares should have told that gathering of Oconee County Republicans that "the GOP maybe could stay in power for up to 12 more years?" because Georgia's racial and ethnic demographics look a lot more like the demographics of a blue state than a red state at this point in time.
With Georgia's demographics looking a lot like the deep-blue Mid Atlantic/South Atlantic state of Maryland than the surrounding deep-red Southeastern states of Alabama, Tennessee and South Carolina, along with the current volatile political environment for Republicans, there definitely is no guarantee that the Republican Party will continue to control Georgia state politics for 8 to 12 more years.
With Georgia's current demographic makeup (a demographic makeup which continues to change and evolve to become more diverse), 8-12 years is definitely entirely too long of a period to predict that the Republican Party will continue to hold power in a state where the demographics continue to trend heavily away from them.
Jeffares' statement that Republicans will continue to hold control of Georgia state politics for the next 12 years was just him comforting a group of conservative Republican exurban voters with statements that they want to hear.
If Jeffares' name sounds familiar, that is because Jeffares was the first Georgia state legislator to publicly denounce Delta Airlines for disassociating from the NRA before Georgia Republican Lt. Governor, state Senate President and gubernatorial candidate Casey Cagle publicly denounced Delta in a tweet last month.
There are too many black Republicans in Georgia that consistently vote for GOP candidates. There are more like Ashley Bell than people realize. These type of individuals are opportunists that use their so-called blackness to pretend like are for blacks but really out only for themselves. This is the real reason why although the demographics are changing, Georgia's black populous is only able to make impacts in local but not statewide political races. It's worth doing a case study because this will be the interesting how these individuals will either assist in the election of another GOP governor or sit out thus allowing the election of a Democratic governor.
Another factor is that many of the Northern transplants are moderate Republicans. If they do even vote, many just see the R before the name and go for them - oftentimes with no true knowledge of what that particular candidate is all about.
There are too many black Republicans in Georgia that consistently vote for GOP candidates. There are more like Ashley Bell than people realize. These type of individuals are opportunists that use their so-called blackness to pretend like are for blacks but really out only for themselves. This is the real reason why although the demographics are changing, Georgia's black populous is only able to make impacts in local but not statewide political races. It's worth doing a case study because this will be the interesting how these individuals will either assist in the election of another GOP governor or sit out thus allowing the election of a Democratic governor.
Those are some good points that there are many black Republicans in Georgia that consistently vote for GOP candidates.
...Though, I do not know if Ashley Bell is necessarily the best example of this seeing as though Bell (and his wife) were originally Democrats until about 2010 when they switched to the Republican Party to remain politically viable in a Gainesville-centered Northeast Georgia political scene that is thoroughly dominated by conservative Republicans who used to be conservative Democrats.
In this day and age, if one wants to remain active in the political game in exurban and rural Georgia, one basically has to be a member of the Republican Party, even if they may actually be relative moderates personally like an Ashley Bell or other Northeast Georgia relative moderates like Nathan Deal and Casey Cagle.
Otherwise, I would not necessarily say that black people who vote for Republicans are self-serving opportunists as much I would say that the relatively high occurrence of black people voting for Republicans in a state like Georgia is the result of:
1) A deeply socially conservative culture within and throughout most of the state of Georgia outside of the I-285 Perimeter that is attracted to a Republican Party that has remade and built itself into the socially and culturally conservative party over the last 38 years since the election of Ronald Reagan as President back in 1980.
Black people may generally vote for Democrats more than they vote for Republicans nationally (especially in Presidential elections)... But even if black people generally vote for Democrats substantially more than they vote for Republicans, black people are still part of the social culture of the local areas where they live and are at times going to vote for Republican candidates that they can relate to on a social and cultural level.
The occurrence of black people voting for Republican candidates (like a Nathan Deal or a Casey Cagle) in conservative states like Georgia is most likely because they can personally relate to those Republican candidates in some way (whether it be because of those candidates' apparent comfort with firearms, church-going habits, suburban/exurban lifestyle, etc, that they share) as opposed to some kind of self-serving opportunism.
2) An acute lack of political viability by the Democratic Party of Georgia at times during the past 8-16 years when the party has struggled to do things as simple and as basic as keep the utilities on at party headquarters in Atlanta (...at one point early in the decade of the 2010's, the Democratic Party of Georgia had completely neglected fundraising to the point that the party only had about $13,000 in the bank and were only days away having the utilities shut-off at the party's headquarters in Atlanta).
If and when Democrats ever put forth candidates that are viewed as truly viable in a statewide race, large enough numbers of both whites and blacks likely will vote for those Democratic candidates at rates that are high enough for those candidates to have a shot at winning those statewide races. They've done it before (2006 and earlier) and they will do it again, probably in the not-too-distant future.
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Originally Posted by JMatl
Another factor is that many of the Northern transplants are moderate Republicans. If they do even vote, many just see the R before the name and go for them - oftentimes with no true knowledge of what that particular candidate is all about.
That is an excellent point that many of the Northern transplants who move into the Atlanta suburbs are and have been moderate Republicans.
The massive amount of relatively moderately conservative transplants who vote Republican moving into the Atlanta suburbs has been one of the main factors (if not the main factor) in the rise of the Republican Party to power in a traditionally Democrat-dominated Southern state like Georgia over the past 4 decades.
Though in recent years, particularly over the last decade or so, there seems to be very strong evidence that there are many more Democratic-leaning voters moving into some key traditionally Republican-dominated areas of the Atlanta suburbs than there are Republican-leaning voters.
There is very strong (almost overwhelming) evidence that many more Democratic-leaning voters than Republican-leaning voters are currently moving into traditionally Republican-dominated key metro Atlanta suburban areas like North Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett, Henry, Douglas, Rockdale, Newton and North Fayette counties to the point that it is threatening to turn Georgia into a Democratically-controlled 'blue' state in the not-too-distant future.
...Much like the boom in Republican-leaning voters into the metro Atlanta suburbs and exurbs back in the 1970's, '80's and '90's helped to turn a Democratically-dominated Georgia into a Republican-dominated state back in the 2000's and 2010's.
The 2016 Presidential Election (in which traditionally Republican-leaning counties like Cobb and Gwinnett were won by the Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 40 years) also seemed to indicate that there are many Republican-leaning moderate voters who might vote for Democratic candidates if the Republicans put forth candidates that are considered to be too extreme or too off-putting (like a Donald Trump).
2016 also showed that those Republican-leaning moderate suburban voters might also not vote in races for GOP candidates who they view as being too extreme or too off-putting making it possible for viable Democratic candidates to win.
Four people at Gwinnett Place Mall would have made it the biggest crowd that mall has seen in years.
Too soon?
Nah, that's probably just about right on point, unfortunately. That mall has been operating postmortem for at least the last 5 years, if not longer. It's just that no one has yet made it official and put that mall out of its misery for good.
I guess that its no surprise that the Gwinnett County Republican Party (which was once one of the strongest county Republican party organizations in the nation, but has started to backslide noticeably due to a combination of multiple local ethics scandals and rapidly changing demographics in the county) would set up shop in an almost completely dead (and low-rent) Gwinnett Place Mall in an era of significantly declining participation and fundraising for that particular county party.
Nah, that's probably just about right on point, unfortunately. That mall has been operating postmortem for at least the last 5 years, if not longer. It's just that no one has yet made it official and put that mall out of its misery for good.
I guess that its no surprise that the Gwinnett County Republican Party (which was once one of the strongest county Republican party organizations in the nation, but has started to backslide noticeably due to a combination of multiple local ethics scandals and rapidly changing demographics in the county) would set up shop in an almost completely dead (and low-rent) Gwinnett Place Mall in an era of significantly declining participation and fundraising for that particular county party.
Spot on, B2R! The fact that Gwinnett has elected a Democratic out gay Asian Legislator is proof positive that the County is going through a seismic shift politically, and there is really no turning back.
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Tom Crawford: The 2018 Elections Will Be Georgia's Most Competitive in Years
