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Isn’t it great that there is so little flu and other viruses around? That really is the sliver lining to the cloud. Hope it keeps up.
It will be interesting to see if that silver lining holds. Certainly the Stats from the US show a dramatic fall in people seeking routine medical testing etc. They estimate based on normal annual numbers of cancer diagnosis, and normal numbers of screening appointments, that there are up to 200,000 people over there with Cancer who have not been diagnosed as they would normally have been.
It will be interesting to see if that silver lining holds. Certainly the Stats from the US show a dramatic fall in people seeking routine medical testing etc. They estimate based on normal annual numbers of cancer diagnosis, and normal numbers of screening appointments, that there are up to 200,000 people over there with Cancer who have not been diagnosed as they would normally have been.
I wonder if we will note a similar outcome here.
Our state govt is very concerned about that. I know someone in there who is working on a campaign to encourage people to continue their routine tests. I also know someone who has cut short treatment for cancer out of fear of going to a hospital for the chemo. No good.
Camilla Stoltenberg, director of Norway’s public health agency, has given an interview where she is candid about the implications of this discovery. ‘Our assessment now, and I find that there is a broad consensus in relation to the reopening, was that one could probably achieve the same effect – and avoid part of the unfortunate repercussions – by not closing. But, instead, staying open with precautions to stop the spread.’ This is important to admit, she says, because if the infection levels rise again – or a second wave hits in the winter – you need to be brutally honest about whether lockdown proved effective.
There is nothing wrong, to my mind, in the abundance of caution that was shown early on. This is still a dangerous virus when it grabs hold, but the evidence coming out from everywhere is that with social distancing and avoiding large crowds the virus will tend to cluster not to run rampant. I read somewhere last week that although it has an estimated R0 of 2.5, its diffusion factor (k) is very low. What that means is that most people who are infected to not give it to anyone else but the odd person out there will give it to a lot of people. That's why the social distancing is working so effectively.
There is nothing wrong, to my mind, in the abundance of caution that was shown early on. This is still a dangerous virus when it grabs hold, but the evidence coming out from everywhere is that with social distancing and avoiding large crowds the virus will tend to cluster not to run rampant. I read somewhere last week that although it has an estimated R0 of 2.5, its diffusion factor (k) is very low. What that means is that most people who are infected to not give it to anyone else but the odd person out there will give it to a lot of people. That's why the social distancing is working so effectively.
That is an interesting quote. It has been my feeling that we could have stayed at the Level 2 restrictions, with schools open and restaurants and pubs spaced out, and achieved similar results.
But we will never know.
That is an interesting quote. It has been my feeling that we could have stayed at the Level 2 restrictions, with schools open and restaurants and pubs spaced out, and achieved similar results.
But we will never know.
Yeah that's been my feeling too. I think because politicians were slow off the mark they wanted to be seen to be doing something. The daily case numbers were already diving rapidly when the 10 person limit was implemented in mid-March, once we got to those level 3 restrictions the exponential decay was nearing its peak.
That is an interesting quote. It has been my feeling that we could have stayed at the Level 2 restrictions, with schools open and restaurants and pubs spaced out, and achieved similar results.
But we will never know.
Well a price worth paying in my book. If and the initial likelihood was rather great, that such a procedure had gone pear shaped, there would have been an uproar.
Several weeks under conditions experienced is really very little in the name of public welfare. Cost analysis scenarios, would confirm the burden on all of society if the virus had 'run wild.'
The economy likely would have taking a generation to recover and many aspects of it, would simply have gone under.
Whether we are' out of the woods' yet, only time will tell, but handled rather well to date.
On the other hand today South Korea is having to reimpose restrictions. It does beg the question why were nightclubs allowed to reopen. They are not normally associated with social distancing.
Quote:
The warehouse cluster appears linked to an outbreak that emerged in several Seoul nightclubs and bars in early May, according to the KCDC, and comes as the country seeks to ease social distancing rules, reopen schools, and keep new infections in check.
KCDC Director Jeong Eun-kyeong said the country may need to reimpose social distancing restrictions, saying it was becoming increasingly difficult for health workers to track transmissions amid increasing public activity.
"The number of people or locations we have to trace are increasing geometrically," she said during a briefing on Wednesday afternoon.
The quote from the KCDC Director highlights the point I made earlier about the importance of social distancing and avoiding large crowds. If you maintain social distancing the virus will cluster, as you relax social distancing the amount of tracing rises exponentially.
There keeps being small outbreaks of 10 a day here, which is pretty good compared to worldwide but very annoying when it's the only state in the country where this is happening. I dont want to have to go into another lockdown but so far there is no sign of that having to happen, as authorities can act quickly on these small clusters now.
There keeps being small outbreaks of 10 a day here, which is pretty good compared to worldwide but very annoying when it's the only state in the country where this is happening. I dont want to have to go into another lockdown but so far there is no sign of that having to happen, as authorities can act quickly on these small clusters now.
The concern for Victoria is that schools have just reopened to a select amount of year levels and cases are already popping up. Restaurants, cafes and pubs haven’t even reopened yet, nor have gyms. Public transport is dead and offices are near empty as WFH orders have been extended for all of June. If cases can be kept to 10 a day once things get busier that would be a terrific result. I’m not going to get carried away until I see how we go with the more social restrictions being eased.
With all these protests set to happen, our hard work might be undone.
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