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Old 03-04-2023, 08:41 PM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,599,248 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
Interestingly, Arizona's not on that list of high consumers. Could it be the "dry heat" doesn't require as much AC? When we lived there, we set the thermostat at 85ºF with ceiling fans.

Actually, I would expect the Southwest to be the leaders in EV adoption, given the plentiful solar energy. With solar panels on the house, you'd be able to basically drive for free.
Arizona might not be as high as the muggy American Southeast, but consumption is still nearly double that of California even though the average bill is higher by only $7 per month.
  • CA 542 kWh per month 2021 $124 average monthly residential bill in 2021
  • AZ 1048 kWh per month 2021 $131 average monthly residential bill in 2021

Arizona is acually an interesting case. Part of the reason that electricity is reasonable in that state is the massive Palo Verde Nuclear power plant which takes care of 28% of the demand in Arizona and also exported 8,756 GWh to California in 2021 (which is ~27% of 31,552 GWh which is Palo Verde's total production).

That is not surprising since Palo Verde nuclear power plant is ~27% owned by SOCAL institutions
  1. Southern California Edison (15.8%),
  2. Southern California Public Power Authority (5.9%)
  3. Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (5.7%).

Palo Verde is the largest nuclear generating plant in the nation, and they are making plans to secure operating permits for a total operating life of 80 to 100 years (although permits are currently secured for 60 years).
  • Unit 1: 28 January 1986
  • Unit 2: 19 September 1986
  • Unit 3: 8 January 1988

Under current California state law, it will be illegal to either generate electricity from nuclear power, or to import electricity from other states generated by nuclear power after 2045.

Fleet Size
  • AUTOMOBILES+TRUCKS: STATE (privately owned)
  • 14,027,931+15,859,736: California
  • 2,225,380+3,446,021: Arizona

By my calculations Palo Verde in its present configuration could produce enough electricity to power a complete conversion of Arizona's fleet to EVs. Palo Verde may grow in size if they add some Small Modular Reactors.

California on the other hand already produces far less power than Arizona on a per account basis, and they have 5X as many vehicles. Palo Verde imported electric power is 53% of the power generated by Diablo Canyon, the last remaining nuclear plant in California.

 
Old 03-05-2023, 06:11 AM
 
Location: Grosse Ile Michigan
30,708 posts, read 79,873,351 times
Reputation: 39453
Quote:
Originally Posted by getatag View Post
checking Worldometer site shows the predicted end of oil discover in the world as 40 years and counting.

https://www.worldometers.info
They have been saying this for decades. So many purported deadlines have come and gone and we have ore oil than ever. Sure it will end eventually, but the predictions are silly.



It would be good to use less until they find a replacement for the use of oil products in plastics, packaging, food, medicine, clothing, heat, construction materials, windmill blades, hair care products, - pretty much everything we use in life has oil based materials in it. If we run out, we will have to make huge changes.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 07:11 AM
 
Location: South of Heaven
7,945 posts, read 3,490,409 times
Reputation: 11639
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
They have been saying this for decades. So many purported deadlines have come and gone and we have ore oil than ever. Sure it will end eventually, but the predictions are silly.



It would be good to use less until they find a replacement for the use of oil products in plastics, packaging, food, medicine, clothing, heat, construction materials, windmill blades, hair care products, - pretty much everything we use in life has oil based materials in it. If we run out, we will have to make huge changes.
No worries, there are plenty of people out there who are very eager to force those changes on us, as the law being discussed in this very thread can attest to.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 08:16 AM
 
Location: 404
3,006 posts, read 1,496,735 times
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Meh. It's much ado about a point that likely becomes moot in the next few years. Rising energy costs will swing a giant wrecking ball through plans and fantasies of keeping high-energy luxuries on low-energy budgets. There will be fewer cars still running. Higher shipping costs will force simplification of car tech with fewer or no imported parts, especially batteries. Restoring or redesigning ancient beaters to work with any available parts is a growing trend. Anything small and light might roll out of a junkyard and get some sort of engine.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 09:50 AM
 
6,706 posts, read 5,948,586 times
Reputation: 17075
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
They have been saying this for decades. So many purported deadlines have come and gone and we have ore oil than ever. Sure it will end eventually, but the predictions are silly.

It would be good to use less until they find a replacement for the use of oil products in plastics, packaging, food, medicine, clothing, heat, construction materials, windmill blades, hair care products, - pretty much everything we use in life has oil based materials in it. If we run out, we will have to make huge changes.
Shale oil deposits in just the U.S. alone amount to estimated 1.25 trillion bbl recoverable. That's about 4 to 5 times the Saudi total reserves.

Interestingly, Europe, China, and Israel also have shale. In fact, Israel has about 250 billion bbl under the ground, equivalent to Saudi Arabia, but unfortunately it's adjacent to the water table and environmental concerns, so far, have prevented its exploitation. However, the Israelis are nothing if not innovative, and they may well find a way. However, Israelis also are innovative in the EV and solar fields so it's likely that they will go that route.

Anyway, if a more oil-friendly government is elected in 2024, or at least a gridlocked government such as we have now, that prevents any more "green" laws enacted at the federal level, our oil and gas industries will just keep digging and making money. Even now, with Biden's bans on drilling on federal land, they have record profits and are exporting natural gas to Europe to compensate for Russian cut-off.

I think in a few years we're going to be sort of divided into states that allow internal combustion vehicles, oil, gas, and nuclear power, and states that have banned all of the above. It's going to be interesting watching people go down to Texas or Tennessee to buy their gasoline and hybrid vehicles which are banned in the Northeast and California.

It will also be interesting to see how these states handle increased electric demand.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 10:20 AM
 
Location: New Jersey!!!!
19,062 posts, read 13,992,119 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
It will also be interesting to see how these states handle increased electric demand.
Technological progress is definitely interesting to watch as it unfolds. Imagine if the engineers working on fusion took the bubba route instead of engaging in cutting edge research?
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Old 03-05-2023, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Newburyport, MA
12,519 posts, read 9,606,846 times
Reputation: 15964
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldjensens View Post
They have been saying this for decades. So many purported deadlines have come and gone and we have ore oil than ever. Sure it will end eventually, but the predictions are silly.



It would be good to use less until they find a replacement for the use of oil products in plastics, packaging, food, medicine, clothing, heat, construction materials, windmill blades, hair care products, - pretty much everything we use in life has oil based materials in it. If we run out, we will have to make huge changes.
Yes, 99% of the talk is about burning oil and gas, but what few people recognize is how much of our lives depend on a cascade of synthetic organic chemistry reactions - and the starting materials of these synthetic pathways is usually refined from petroleum.

Look around your houses - that polyurethane on all the floors, the paints on the siding, walls, ceiling and doors, the glue in the plywood, alllllllllllll of those plastics used as containers, as the bodies of consumer items like computers, cell phones and TVs, the insulation on wiring, the foam as well as the shell in that cooler, the foam, gasket, shelves and drawers in the fridge, all those synthetic fibers used in ropes, carpets, clothing... there are just as many applications in our cars, and then there's medical devices, medicines - the applications of organic chemistry in our modern lives is nearly endless.

We could use e.g. cellulosic ethanol and "biodiesel" when the oil runs out, but the costs will be high, and I don't know if there can be enough...
 
Old 03-05-2023, 11:21 AM
 
Location: New York Area
35,123 posts, read 17,080,545 times
Reputation: 30278
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
Anyway, if a more oil-friendly government is elected in 2024, or at least a gridlocked government such as we have now, that prevents any more "green" laws enacted at the federal level, our oil and gas industries will just keep digging and making money. Even now, with Biden's bans on drilling on federal land, they have record profits and are exporting natural gas to Europe to compensate for Russian cut-off.
What needs to happen is a Federal override of the 2035 ban on ICE engines and the "goals" for 2030.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 12:34 PM
 
14,611 posts, read 17,599,248 times
Reputation: 7783
Quote:
Originally Posted by blisterpeanuts View Post
I think in a few years we're going to be sort of divided into states that allow internal combustion vehicles, oil, gas, and nuclear power, and states that have banned all of the above. It's going to be interesting watching people go down to Texas or Tennessee to buy their gasoline and hybrid vehicles which are banned in the Northeast and California.
That is a ridiculous assertion. States are not going to ban ICE vehicles without restricting the ability to register new vehicles that are purchased in other states.

In 2022, 79.3 percent of all new cars sold in Norway were 100 percent battery-electric powered vehicles. – Eight out of ten people choosing fully electric instead of combustion engines is a considerable step towards Norway reaching its climate goal of 100 percent BEV sales in 2025.

But Norway burns no fossil fuels in the generation of electricity. Norwegians also heat their homes with electricity. They have a network of over 1600 dams that generate all the electricity they need from hydrdynamic power. They have the wealth they need to buy these EVs because they can pump all the oil from the North Sea and sell it to an energy hungry European Union. It is estimated there is another 35 years of production left in the North Sea.
 
Old 03-05-2023, 01:18 PM
 
3,242 posts, read 1,691,658 times
Reputation: 6159
I don't think the local government can take on interstate regulations and DOT. I don't even think CA banning sales of ICE is constitutional at all because CA doesn't even own all of the roads. Pretty soon there will be supreme court ruling. The Feds who ever wins the future POTUS will decide on these matters. Right now it's all speculation to get stocks pumped.
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