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Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18
"yoke pushed forward" doesn't necessarily mean suicide.
...
The part that still, no matter what, makes no sense to me here is the temporary recovery. How does that happen? Or, am I reading too much into that? I am reading it as nearly recovering before plunging again..
No situation that I can think of makes sense here other than the suicidal pilot becoming non-suicidal before becoming suicidal again. Which makes.. No real sense.
Or, pilot A is incapacitated.. Pilot B goes into the nose dive.. Pilot A recovers, incapacitates pilot B, recovers the plane, at which time Pilot B recovers and whacks pilot A again.. and.. That's a real reach there.
that recovery just throws a wrench into everything. I'd like to know exactly how much of a recovery it was.
or.... if there was a momentary recovery... too little, too late, or... recovery and structure / controls break near instant of crash (not discernable on FDR)
If there was a 'jump seat' passenger, that adds a bit more possibility of various strange things.
Poisoning air within the cockpit or another method of incapacitating pilots and gaining control of aircraft.
Assuming anyone who enters the cockpit on China Eastern has certain security clearance and credentials.
Not sure if there is any way to alert ATC of an altercation / problem, apart from the cockpit communication devices. (Airline mentioned there were no 'alarms' / indication of cockpit being breached). China may have different protocols for the cabin or cockpit crew handling emergency situations. The trip DOWN would have been pretty quick and tough to get to the bulkhead to make a radio call to the boss.
Facts YTBD, but I expect China Eastern knew or confidently speculated the aircraft operationally was not the problem when they released their 737-800's to re-enter service within a couple weeks of crash.
its out there in other places now...but aint that some s**t.
The fact there is zero info on the pilots motives meaning it points somewhat warmly to a protest action against the CCP. Its hard on people that might be your dissident brethren but still...
If we're being technical. There was one pilot. There were two co-pilots.
There has been nothing that i've seen that the second co-pilot was considered part of the crew and was in the cockpit. I've kinda taken that to mean that he might have been jumpseated or similar.
Anytime the crew has been discussed, it's just been the pilot, Yang Hongda and co pilot Zhang Zhengping
So.. I'm not.. Certain that the 'other' co pilot was any form of active crew on this flight. I could always be wrong.
or.... if there was a momentary recovery... too little, too late, or... recovery and structure / controls break near instant of crash (not discernable on FDR)
If there was a 'jump seat' passenger, that adds a bit more possibility of various strange things.
Poisoning air within the cockpit or another method of incapacitating pilots and gaining control of aircraft.
Assuming anyone who enters the cockpit on China Eastern has certain security clearance and credentials.
Not sure if there is any way to alert ATC of an altercation / problem, apart from the cockpit communication devices. (Airline mentioned there were no 'alarms' / indication of cockpit being breached). China may have different protocols for the cabin or cockpit crew handling emergency situations. The trip DOWN would have been pretty quick and tough to get to the bulkhead to make a radio call to the boss.
Harrowing trip for sure.
Ouch. (or pass out from g forces)
Then it is all over.
We don't really know enough about China Easterns' policies and how strictly they're enforced to say for certain. Since they, again, to my understanding, are a Chinese domestic airline.. They have far more latitude in how things are done vs an airline that would fly to the US, for example.
So.. When is the cockpit allowed to be 'unsecured'? And by that, I mean someone allowed in?
Quote:
Originally Posted by L00k4ward
Think the third was a trainee to be a captain
That's another odd thing I've seen.. If I recall, the Co-Pilot was far, far more experienced than the captain? I seem to recall hearing something about that, and that it was commonplace for China Eastern to have situations like that.
The pilot, and I hate to keep adding disclaimers, but I don't want anyone to take what I'm saying as fact. I know just as much as you all.. From reading articles that may or may not be accurate.. And then there's my memory that comes into play.. The Pilot had a child that had just turned 1 or something. Maybe was about to turn 1. To me, he kinda seems like the least likely culprit due to that.
But.. You never know. He might have a big life insurance through the airline and was struggling financially and came up with the idea to crash the plane to collect for his family.
We don't really know enough about China Easterns' policies and how strictly they're enforced to say for certain. Since they, again, to my understanding, are a Chinese domestic airline.. They have far more latitude in how things are done vs an airline that would fly to the US, for example.
So.. When is the cockpit allowed to be 'unsecured'? And by that, I mean someone allowed in?
That's another odd thing I've seen.. If I recall, the Co-Pilot was far, far more experienced than the captain? I seem to recall hearing something about that, and that it was commonplace for China Eastern to have situations like that.
The pilot, and I hate to keep adding disclaimers, but I don't want anyone to take what I'm saying as fact. I know just as much as you all.. From reading articles that may or may not be accurate.. And then there's my memory that comes into play.. The Pilot had a child that had just turned 1 or something. Maybe was about to turn 1. To me, he kinda seems like the least likely culprit due to that.
But.. You never know. He might have a big life insurance through the airline and was struggling financially and came up with the idea to crash the plane to collect for his family.
They say that the Chinese Civil Aviation Authorities started recording all conversations in the cabin in real time.
Recordings are kept for 3 months and they are actionable if someone on the flight deck said something inappropriate.
So technically they don’t need CVR, they know real time conversations.
In addition, they started using extensively flight management recorders and every irregularities by the pilots have an immediate consequences- so much so, that the pilots are not flying the plane but trying to comply to a T with the flight recorders.
The 59 y o co-pilot - used to be the hero with many awards for his achievements and was called the 5 star captain- he trained more than 100 young captains - including the one on his last flight, whose father was very prominent pilot himself.and now with the government-.powerful connections
However, the 59 y.o who was ready to retire- received a terrain warning from the system, failed a flight simulator test right after that and was demoted from the captain to co-pilot due to those mistakes.
That is very painful in their culture.
In addition, the pilots feel unrelenting pressures at work due to those recordings and feel used and abused by the system, dehumanized
The former captain lost a family member to Covid and allegedly lost all his savings in Evergrande scandal-the last not verified.
Some crudely made alleged “ suicide note” is circulating on the internet - most likely fake
Not a great idea to be a 'blabby mouth' / media leak without considering the LT repercussions.
NTSB : CAAC collaboration
Boeing future sales in China
Shared aviation technologies with China
Mutual benefits (diplomatic respect) to countries frequently at odds of understandings, due to misinterpretation of intents.
China is very strategic in relationships (and they will always use that to their LT advantage)
USA is very "Hollywood" / sensationalized media and public reactions to media (especially elections!)
Neither is ideal.
At present no need to blab - assign blame.
Let the CAAC issue the report, but (Boeing and FAA and NTSB) know ALL the facts. Joe Average American can be 'informed' but need not issue the verdicts, yet. No US citizens on the flight roaster TMK. USA goal should be to salvage Boeing / China reputation and learn from any system failures. And to add protective measures that would enhance safety for USA and WW flights.
True the 'pressure' on Chinese workers is very stiff and I would expect China to not recognize or acknowledge that leading to the cause of this crash. Unless something is very definitive and can be documented, it will be 'undisclosed', for the benefit of the state. (and to absolve any responsibility of gov or China Eastern.) Not intentionally or to deceive, but to Save face. (in the absence of a definitive cause)
Many tragic things in life are best 'unknown', unless we can learn and improve and prevent a repeat event.
If we don't know... we don't know.
Speculation is not reason to condemn.
Last edited by StealthRabbit; 05-18-2022 at 07:12 PM..
Not a great idea to be a 'blabby mouth' / media leak without considering the LT repercussions.
NTSB : CAAC collaboration Boeing future sales in China
...
China is very strategic in relationships (and they will always use that to their LT advantage)
It's a bitter blow for Boeing that China Southern, the planemaker's biggest airline customer in China, has reversed its plans to take 39 B737 MAX 8 this year, just weeks after announcing it.
Several reasons arose before the "media leak", will go no where after the media leak.
"No MAX!!!"
China Southern has a fleet of 645 aircraft, which ch-aviation.com says comprises 375 Airbus and 270 Boeing aircraft. China Southern has 313 Airbus A320 family and 212 Boeing B737 aircraft within its narrowbody fleet. So while Boeing has around 40% of the fleet, it does lag behind Airbus in the relationship with China Southern.
This is unrelated, but I find it interesting and don't want to start a new thread. We can imagine what the cockpit on that MU5735 may have looked like . 6 captains fly the first 747-8 of Air China to Beijing
The 59 y o co-pilot - used to be the hero with many awards for his achievements and was called the 5 star captain- he trained more than 100 young captains - including the one on his last flight, whose father was very prominent pilot himself.and now with the government-.powerful connections
However, the 59 y.o who was ready to retire- received a terrain warning from the system, failed a flight simulator test right after that and was demoted from the captain to co-pilot due to those mistakes.
That is very painful in their culture.
In addition, the pilots feel unrelenting pressures at work due to those recordings and feel used and abused by the system, dehumanized
The former captain lost a family member to Covid and allegedly lost all his savings in Evergrande scandal-the last not verified.
Some crudely made alleged “ suicide note” is circulating on the internet - most likely fake
If this were a western carrier.. He'd be suspect #1 in my eyes. And.. To an extent, probably still is. Assuming it was an intentional downing.
But.. While something like that I can certainly say that he could very well be suicidal over.. It doesn't seem that the Chinese culture has as much of a.. "Vengeance factor" against authority. Probably with very good reason..
But, what I mean by that.. Guy gets fired in China.. You don't really hear about him going in and shooting the place up because of it. I think you have lots of suicides in China, but.. Not so much mass killings? perhaps I'm wrong.. I don't pay that much attention to what happens in China.
FWIW.. China also seems like a place that if someone DID go in and shoot up some place.. They'd punish the remaining family to set an example.
Of course.. That could be more due to media manipulation.
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