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$35 is a good deal for LA and not bad for Bllingsley either.
If we follow the 40/60/80 model for arbitration and assume that the market price for a win is $5 million in 2011 and increases by 5% per year then we have the Dodgers paying Billingsley for about 9 - 9.5 WAR over the course of the contract
YEAR: Salary expected WAR
2011: $6.75 2.25
2012: $12 2.85
2013: $12 2.17
2014: $12 2.07
TOTAL: $42.75 9.35
Billingsley has been worth 4.4, 3.2 and 4.6 WAR the last 3 seasons. So, two seasons like last year would pay for the deal.
$35 is a good deal for LA and not bad for Bllingsley either.
If we follow the 40/60/80 model for arbitration and assume that the market price for a win is $5 million in 2011 and increases by 5% per year then we have the Dodgers paying Billingsley for about 9 - 9.5 WAR over the course of the contract
YEAR: Salary expected WAR
2011: $6.75 2.25
2012: $12 2.85
2013: $12 2.17
2014: $12 2.07
TOTAL: $42.75 9.35
Billingsley has been worth 4.4, 3.2 and 4.6 WAR the last 3 seasons. So, two seasons like last year would pay for the deal.
Well, we finally know what the 2011 Opening Day roster is going to look like. It's time to look ahead to 2012. A lot will depend on performance, injuries, trades, development, etc...but there is definite potential for next year's team to look a lot different.
We see a lot of 'Free Agent's and 'Team Option's on the 2012 side of that roster. Let's take a look and see what we think is likely to happen with each player.
On Wednesday Dodgers' minor leaguer Jon Ely had this line through 6 and 2/3 innings of a double-header-shortened AAA game:
6 2/3 innings, 0 hits, 0 runs, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts.
He ended the game with this line:
7 innings, 1 hit, 0 runs, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts.
Ely was one out away from a (shortened) no-hitter.
On Thursday Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw had this line through 8 and 2/3 innings of a game against the Braves:
8 2/3 innings, 2 hits, 1 run, 3 walks, 7 strikeouts.
He ended the game with this line:
8 2/3 innings, 5 hits, 3 runs, 4 walks, 7 strikeouts
Kershaw was one out away from a complete game victory.
We won both games but each one could have been a little bit more special.
EDIT: Also, one of my favorite guys, Xavier Paul who was DFA'd by LA when they called up Jerry Sands was claimed by the Pittsburgh Pirates. Good luck to X.
MIAMI -- Dodgers infielder Casey Blake appears headed to the disabled list with "some type of infection" in his left elbow, manager Don Mattingly said Wednesday.
Blake was hospitalized Tuesday night and given IV antibiotics when his fever spiked. He would not allow club officials to discuss his medical condition or confirm if he had a staph infection, but Mattingly called it a "dangerous situation."
I've not been impressed with Don Mattingly thus far on the season. But I haven't been depressed with him either.
But it's starting to move in the latter direction.
In last night's game against the Giants he made a truly pointless move.
In the bottom of the 5th inning with the Dodgers down 4-1 Mattingly faced a decision. The Dodgers had the bases loaded with the pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, up. Kershaw hadn't had a great game to that point. He'd given up 4 runs on 7 hits. But he'd only thrown 85 pitches while walking 1 and striking out 6. The Giants had squared up on a few balls, but it's not like Kershaw was clearly getting hammered.
The Dodger's bullpen was down its 3 best players (Padilla with arm stiffness and Jansen and Guerrier with needing a day off), so it's certainly not ideal to pull your starter after only 5.
But I can deal with Mattingly choosing to hit for Kershaw. The offense hasn't been good and here's a chance to score some runs. This is an important moment in the game. The Dodgers' WE (Win Expectancy) at the time was just 30% but they had a RE (Run Expectancy) of 2.27 with the bases loaded.
So, why the hell do you hit with Juan Castro?
Juan Castro is the worst hitter in baseball. Here's Castro's batting line over the last 3 seasons:
.215/.259/.274. That's a .238 wOBA and 38 wRC+. That wRC+ means that Castro has been 38% as good as the average major league hitter. That's horrible.
Due to injuries (Furcal, Blake, Thames) and Ned Coletti, the Dodgers' bench is a little...thin...but Jerry Sands and Tony Gwynn jr were both available.
Gwynn isn't a great hitter, but over that same time he's has a line of:
.238/.322/.315. That's a .291 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Much better. He's also a left-handed hitter to face the right-handed Matt Cain.
There's also Jerry Sands. Sands hasn't lit the world on fire since being called up but he's hit:
.200/.291/.307. That's a .274 wOBA and 68 wRC+. He at least has a little bit of power to possibly lift a sac fly or extra base hit against the flyball pitching Cain.
So the Dodgers pull Kershaw, Castro does nothing in his at bat. And LA loses in the 9th when the Dodgers have to use their worst reliever in a tie game.
I've not been impressed with Don Mattingly thus far on the season. But I haven't been depressed with him either.
But it's starting to move in the latter direction.
Give him a break, he's still learning on the job. He has already shown improvement, not once so far this season has he been nabbed for two visits to the mound in one trip. Nor has he run out of pitchers or sent a batter to the plate out of lineup order.
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2012 Dodger Roster Early Preview
