Gentrification speading from Core: South Side & West Side (Chicago: live, restaurants)

[NealIRC]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

Completely disagree. I've never had one renter say to me "I love that this apartment is so far from the L". Also those renters which I believe you're describing (i.e. hipsters) are rarely the demographic that has the money to afford $500k condos.

So you kind of answered your own question.

Some of the poor type want to live close to the L.

And some of the rich type don't need to live close to the L, prefer Uber.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by damba

I don't believe the demographic moving into that area will particularly care much about the L being in close proximity. They actually want the opposite, but also would like to live inside the city. Uber is what they use when not working from home

I know a lot of people work from home, but it's far from the majority. There's also considerable risk being a remote employee. IME, they're always the first cut and are typically last in line for raises, promotions, etc. There is still tremendous value in actually visiting a physical office space. Plus it's always better to be near the L. There are more retail and entertainment options clustered around public transit.

[IrishIllini]

Originally Posted by NealIRC

So you kind of answered your own question.

Some of the poor type want to live close to the L.

And some of the rich type don't need to live close to the L, prefer Uber.

Dropping 500k isn't exactly what I'd call rich. Upper middle class, yes. The types of people dropping 500k on condos are not likely affluent enough to responsibly take an uber to and from the office M-F.

[chiloft]

Originally Posted by NealIRC

This is a contradiction.

You can't say it's too expensive, and then wonder how long until it gentrifies.

If it is expensive, than that is gentrification.

If it were cheap, then you can let it gentrify.

Anyways, it's safe for White people to live in that area.

I'm White and Chinese, and therefore look Mexican. I have to worry about random drive-by shootings when I'm walking around South side Mexican neighborhoods (Little Village, Brighton Park / 9th district) in the middle of the night. And what do I to avoid that, I have glasses ready. If I see a car is driving pass, then I put glasses on.

But in Humboldt Park, drive-by shootings are Puerto Rican on Puerto Rican, and, not random (shooter and shootee personally know each other, unlike Mexican gangs). So it's a different network.

I guess you could call it safe and the question becomes then if you're definitely paying top dollar for those units.

And it's not really Humboldt Park, I think that's more West Chicago since it's so close to Grand Ave.

[chiloft]

Originally Posted by IrishIllini

Quiet isn't necessarily a bad thing. The units I've seen selling for 500k at 2,000+ sq. ft., but the L is still over a mile away in some cases. I just can't believe people are paying that much at this point in time, but hey, that's a 2 bed/2 bath averaging 1,300 sq. ft. by me.

Yes, the 1500-1600 sq units are around $470-484K. Not cheap by any means. Great units though, amazing design. But as I said, just feels remote and quiet, and not quiet as in mellow neighborhoods, but rather abandonment. Lots of houses around California and Augusta that look empty.

[OyCrumbler]

Originally Posted by NealIRC

So you kind of answered your own question.

Some of the poor type want to live close to the L.

And some of the rich type don't need to live close to the L, prefer Uber.

Or maybe Divvy and progress on bike lanes are part of it.

There's also the bus + rail possibility.

[dtcbnd03]

Originally Posted by OyCrumbler

Or maybe Divvy and progress on bike lanes are part of it.

There's also the bus + rail possibility.

There's no bus along Augusta. And to walk several blocks just to catch a bus at Division or Chicago to the El is not enticing. There's simply not enough transportation over in that pocket just southeast of humboldt park and northeast of grand. Not to mention You're far away from any highway for reverse commuters.

[NealIRC]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

There's no bus along Augusta. And to walk several blocks just to catch a bus at Division or Chicago to the El is not enticing. There's simply not enough transportation over in that pocket just southeast of humboldt park and northeast of grand. Not to mention You're far away from any highway for reverse commuters.

Right, you take the Chicago bus to downtown, or the Red Line, not the California bus to the Blue Line.

[OyCrumbler]

Originally Posted by dtcbnd03

There's no bus along Augusta. And to walk several blocks just to catch a bus at Division or Chicago to the El is not enticing. There's simply not enough transportation over in that pocket just southeast of humboldt park and northeast of grand. Not to mention You're far away from any highway for reverse commuters.

The 52 is right there if you don't want to walk to Division. You take the 52 up to the Blue Line California stop or down to the Kedzie stop for the Green Line to get to the Loop. That's pretty minimal walking if you're commuting from California and Augusta, and in that situation, it probably makes sense to look at the bus tracker and leave your house accordingly so you don't wait at the stop too long. From a quick google search, it's a 40-50 minute door to door to most major employers in the Loop using the 52 southbound to Green Line route.

Is it better than having a direct rail line at your doorstep? No, but it is transit and the neighborhood is relatively inexpensive, so it's a trade-off.

[OyCrumbler]

I was thinking about this a bit earlier. I think it's a decent bet that except for the case of a large economic downturn, East Garfield Park will be very visibly improved a decade after the Damen and Lake Green Line station is open. That's slated to happen by 2020. Even before then, there are a few major corporate headquarters that are going to be developed in the Fulton-Randolph Market District with the jobs that'll carry with them and much more general economic activity. This will push mid and lower level employees further west along the Green Line from station to station and the closing of the large gap between the Green Line Ashland and California stops will make that go far faster.

In the long run, this is pretty good as the Fulton Market District's traditional industries are heavily space and labor dependent and working in buildings that are quite old and equipment that's often pretty antiquated. Meanwhile, there are a lot of open locations elsewhere in the city where after selling the real estate allows for massive land and equipment acquisitions to greatly increase their efficiency and to expand. There was a Chicago Tribune article on how the older meatpacking companies have dealt with it differently, but one thing is that many have moved towards relocating in the Crawford Industrial Park in the Southwest Side of Chicago and how it's often worked out quite well and many have followed together because of the benefits of co-locating with others in their industry. I'm curious about if the meatpacking district being very close to Midway confers any advantages.