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Jerry Moran won with 62% and 70% of the vote his last two times out. There really is no world where Missouri is considered more conservative than Kansas. Even Johnson County is about 15 points more Republican than it’s counter Jackson County across the river.
2020 was actually the first modern era election presidential when Kansas (+14.6% R) voted less Republican than Missouri (+15.4% R). It appears the states are realigning for a few reasons:
Kansas has a significantly more educated population than Missouri. In the central US it is actually behind only Minnesota and Illinois for the share with a college degree.
Missouri has less sparsely populated rural areas compared to Kansas, so they have greater influence on statewide outcomes
The southwest part of Missouri is a hub for fundamentalist Christianity, and has been gaining population. Meanwhile relatively blue greater St. Louis has seen minimal growth.
Also I don't think Sen. Moran is especially far right relative to most Republicans these days. Sen. Marshall who comes across as more aggressively conservative only received 53% of the vote in 2020.
Jerry Moran won with 62% and 70% of the vote his last two times out. There really is no world where Missouri is considered more conservative than Kansas. Even Johnson County is about 15 points more Republican than it’s counter Jackson County across the river.
Across the street.
And Jackson County is not its "counter": Jackson County contains the heart of the region's core city (which spans four counties) while Johnson is wholly suburban, even though Overland Park, which contains Greatet Kansas City's largest edge city, is now the second-largest city in Kansas behind Wichita.
And even though it does have a higher share of registered Republicans, it voted for Biden in 2020. Things are changing there. It delivered the largest margin of votes against the ballot question that would have removed the right to abortion from the state Constitution as well. (It's also home to the only abortion clinic in Greater Kansas City, there being none on the Missouri side.)
Missouri has a very large rural population that has shifted more conservative over the past decade, which is why Missouri has gone from being a swing state to being a reliably red state politically. The combined populations of St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Columbia, MO, and pre-WWII Kansas City, MO can't overpower the rest of the state that is almost exclusively Republican (and, especially in my fiance's native SWMO, Christian theocratic Republican).
Missouri is similar to Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania we have two large liberal counties (Philadelphia County and Allegheny County), and each has well over 1,000,000 residents. You then have very conservative "collar" counties around Pittsburgh (think Confederate flags) and moderate "collar" counties surrounding Philadelphia. Pennsylvania still has many millions of far-right or right-leaning voters, though in its exurbs, rural areas, and smaller cities/townships that have steered the state from reliably blue/Democratic to being the nation's most-populous swing state at the moment (I consider FL to have shifted far enough right to now be solidly red).
In my eyes KS has gone from being a reliably red state to being a purple state.
In terms of my own personal "image" of each state? I still view Missouri more favorably because I like St. Louis, St. Charles, Columbia, and Kansas City. Johnson County, KS is largely suburban sprawl (unappealing to me). I know nothing about Topeka. I have a generally favorable opinion of Wichita. Being that I love pre-WWII urban built environments and historic architecture, though, I find MO offers more of this and to be more appealing despite its unappealing (for me personally) political shift to the right.
Missouri has a very large rural population that has shifted more conservative over the past decade, which is why Missouri has gone from being a swing state to being a reliably red state politically. The combined populations of St. Louis City, St. Louis County, Columbia, MO, and pre-WWII Kansas City, MO can't overpower the rest of the state that is almost exclusively Republican (and, especially in my fiance's native SWMO, Christian theocratic Republican).
Missouri is similar to Pennsylvania. In Pennsylvania we have two large liberal counties (Philadelphia County and Allegheny County), and each has well over 1,000,000 residents. You then have very conservative "collar" counties around Pittsburgh (think Confederate flags) and moderate "collar" counties surrounding Philadelphia. Pennsylvania still has many millions of far-right or right-leaning voters, though in its exurbs, rural areas, and smaller cities/townships that have steered the state from reliably blue/Democratic to being the nation's most-populous swing state at the moment (I consider FL to have shifted far enough right to now be solidly red).
In my eyes KS has gone from being a reliably red state to being a purple state.
In terms of my own personal "image" of each state? I still view Missouri more favorably because I like St. Louis, St. Charles, Columbia, and Kansas City. Johnson County, KS is largely suburban sprawl (unappealing to me). I know nothing about Topeka. I have a generally favorable opinion of Wichita. Being that I love pre-WWII urban built environments and historic architecture, though, I find MO offers more of this and to be more appealing despite its unappealing (for me personally) political shift to the right.
I find that shift no more appealing than you do. (FWIW, Philly's collar counties have all drifted leftward over the years I've lived here. They were once solidly Republican; now, the most Republican of those four counties is purple. And I also underestimated how far St. Louis County, Mo., has shifted leftward as well. All five of these counties and Johnson County, Kan., have highly educated populations in common.)
I feel for the people at Missouri State University in Springfield, who have lost the battle to the Assemblies of God (also headquartered there).
I find that shift no more appealing than you do. (FWIW, Philly's collar counties have all drifted leftward over the years I've lived here. They were once solidly Republican; now, the most Republican of those four counties is purple. And I also underestimated how far St. Louis County, Mo., has shifted leftward as well. All five of these counties and Johnson County, Kan., have highly educated populations in common.)
I feel for the people at Missouri State University in Springfield, who have lost the battle to the Assemblies of God (also headquartered there).
It is great to hear that some of Philadelphia's "collar" counties are now reliably blue. I thought they were all purple. This is very encouraging. At the same time, though, Pittsburgh's collar counties have gone from being purple to being red, so this somewhat eats into the leftward shift of the Philadelphia collar counties. Obviously Philadelphia County is bluer than Allegheny County.
I remember a recent poll that stated that ~70% of all Americans and ~55% of registered Republicans support same-sex marriage, so unlike the Roe v. Wade decision, which was much more inflammatory, I think same-sex marriage in particular is safe.
I remember a recent poll that stated that ~70% of all Americans and ~55% of registered Republicans support same-sex marriage, so unlike the Roe v. Wade decision, which was much more inflammatory, I think same-sex marriage in particular is safe.
Not if Justice Thomas has his way.
But I do suspect that he may not win the support all of his conservative brethren and sorors on that score. But should he do so, watch the pressure on the legislatures (in states without initiative and referendum) and ballot questions pile up. I suspect Kansas would vote on same-sex marriage the same way it voted on abortion. I'm not so sure about Missouri because of the Bible Belt folks in the southwest.
Kansas: Sunflowers, fields and tornados.
Missouri: Misery
Tornadoes are a scourge in many states, and Kansas doesn't really stand out for their impacts since a lot of the state is lightly populated. In recent years the core of "Tornado Alley" has tended to shift away from the Great Plains further east towards the Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
But I do suspect that he may not win the support all of his conservative brethren and sorors on that score. But should he do so, watch the pressure on the legislatures (in states without initiative and referendum) and ballot questions pile up. I suspect Kansas would vote on same-sex marriage the same way it voted on abortion. I'm not so sure about Missouri because of the Bible Belt folks in the southwest.
There’s no doubt that Missouri (and most states), would vote in favor of same-sex marriage if a vote were taken today. Missouri is a weird case. Historically purple, shifted hard right in terms of elected officials, yet the state still largely votes more progressive on actual issues than its legislators would indicate. MO has voted in favor union rights, Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana (will also be the next state to legalize recreational later this year), and a host of other wedge issues that defy its perception as a political backwater. It’s very frustrating to live in one of the bluest voting jurisdictions in the country (St. Louis City) while under the thumb of some of the most repugnant anti-urban legislators in the nation.
There’s no doubt that Missouri (and most states), would vote in favor of same-sex marriage if a vote were taken today. Missouri is a weird case. Historically purple, shifted hard right in terms of elected officials, yet the state still largely votes more progressive on actual issues than its legislators would indicate. MO has voted in favor union rights, Medicaid expansion, medical marijuana (will also be the next state to legalize recreational later this year), and a host of other wedge issues that defy its perception as a political backwater. It’s very frustrating to live in one of the bluest voting jurisdictions in the country (St. Louis City) while under the thumb of some of the most repugnant anti-urban legislators in the nation.
I feel your pain.
Missouri's about to legalize recreational marijuana? Pennsylvania's Lieutenant Governor and likely successor to Sen. Pat Toomey turned its Governor around on the issue with his "listening tour" of the state, but apparently, what John Fetterman heard from Pennsylvanians fell on deaf ears in the General Assembly, which remains resistant to the idea. I do consider Missouri and Pennsylvania similar in many respects, but Pennsylvania is a bit more urban (~80% urban vs. ~71% urban), which makes it purpler than Missouri right now politically. Still, good for Missouri, and I hope Pennsylvania follows its lead soon.
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