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Sort of but it's moreso that in-migration is picking up a bit faster than out-migration. Flint MSA and Wayne County (specifically Detroit proper and a few inner-ring suburbs) are still pretty huge drains on the overall CSA.
Yep, its slowed down. 2% a year for Houston and 1.9% a year for Dallas is snails pace compared to recent decades.
But that's really not that slow at all, even if it's relatively slow compared to what once was. Most cities/metros can't grow at break-neck speeds indefinitely, and you really shouldn't want them to either -- it's not healthy at all. Perhaps now cities like Atlanta and Phoenix can start catching up infrastructurally to the demands of all the new people both cities added since 1990! As for Dallas and Houston, I fear that even at 2% (which is FAST for an already-huge metro) won't be able to keep up with demand at these rates. 2% and beyond is simply too fast for most governments to keep up with, it seems (emphasis on the word "seems").
FYI, for those that have never heard of it, the Rule of 72 is a mathematical principal that states that if you divide a constant rate into 72 that will represent the number of years it will take for any baseline to double. For example:
6 million people at 2% growth annually: Rule of 72 = 72 / 2% = 36 years the population will double to 12 million people (or, Houston metro will double in size in just 36 years at 2% annual growth. Is that fast enough?)
Technically, 6,000,000*(1.02)^36 = 12,239,324 people (it's meant to be a rule of thumb, not precise).
Yep, its slowed down. 2% a year for Houston and 1.9% a year for Dallas is snails pace compared to recent decades.
Houston has sped up in raw numbers according to latest estimates. It's one of the only two metropolitan areas of ANY SIZE above 1 million people (yes I've checked) that's sped up year after year (according to estimates) since 2010 in raw numbers.
The new number of 138,000 (MSA) and 140,000 (CSA) is the fourth highest in raw numbers in Houston history. Only behind 2009 (149,924), 2006 (190,023; Katrina influx this year so I don't count it), 1982 (196,122), and 1981 (173,465).
The other metropolitan area is the San Francisco Bay Area, it gained about 95,000 people in 2011, today it's topping out around 107,000 people as of 2013. Again, while it's "growth rate" might be down, this is one of the highest in raw numbers in the history of the entire Bay Area.
Had the Metroplex not slowed down in 2013 compared to the prior two years (albeit only slightly so), it would've been in this discussion as well.
You're right, by "rate" they're all slower. Probably because adding 1.2 million people as a metropolitan area of 4.7 million (Houston in 2000) would land you a higher rate since the initial population base is smaller than a projected 1.0-1.1-1.2-1.3 million (this decade) as a metropolitan area of 6 million.
I'm a raw numbers person. I lived in a small sized city called Austin before, where the rates are more important because of it's remedial size to start off with. I do not punish big cities for having larger population bases that drag down growth rates. 1.2 million in my eyes is still 1.2 million faces that didn't exist there before 10 years ago.
If you'd like to play with numbers yourself, this site has done a great job documenting population growth since 1970 for all metropolitan areas. Unfortunately they are using 2010 MSA definitions for 1970 to 2012, they will probably update it soon enough.
Last edited by Trafalgar Law; 04-03-2014 at 11:03 AM..
Sort of but it's moreso that in-migration is picking up a bit faster than out-migration. Flint MSA and Wayne County (specifically Detroit proper and a few inner-ring suburbs) are still pretty huge drains on the overall CSA.
I take all of these estimates with a grain of salt (for every city). Primarily because I'll wait my turn until 2021 to see what growth was really like across the board in the United States.
However, that being said, Detroit lost people going from 2010 to 2011. 2012 and 2013, it's since reversed the decline trend, according to estimates and so far is very close to breaking even (probably will do so next year, if trends hold) and growing again.
Great comeback times for Detroit, which is seeing record occupancy rates in it's core (surging) neighborhoods, albeit some further out neighborhoods are still decaying away unfortunately.
Positive outlook though, the United States, can you imagine a country where every place over a million registers a positive growth for the decade? I hope so.
You left out Nashville which kept growing very fast even during the recession. Phoenix and Charlotte have made great rebounds, too.
Nashville, Phoenix, and Charlotte are all growing at less than 2% annually. Quite pathetic considering that Phoenix and Charlotte were growing at more than 3% annually prior to the recession.
Nashville has never had big growth. It has always and still is just above average.
See, I said this very same thing when the most recent state population estimates were released last year and I was politely told that I was wrong... but it does feel like growth has slowed, almost to a crawl, in the past 3 years.
I don't see how anyone could have argued with you on that one. Post 2007 the immigration rate is down, the birth rate is down, the death rate is up.
I take all of these estimates with a grain of salt (for every city). Primarily because I'll wait my turn until 2021 to see what growth was really like across the board in the United States.
Nashville, Phoenix, and Charlotte are all growing at less than 2% annually. Quite pathetic considering that Phoenix and Charlotte were growing at more than 3% annually prior to the recession.
Nashville has never had big growth. It has always and still is just above average.
No they weren't and you have zero facts to back up your claims. Just because you keep repeating it doesn't make it true.
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