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Also, the rapid growth can dilute the murder rate as well. Especially given the sprawled out nature of the city of Raleigh.
Or concentrate the number, as is the case in previously safe cities that get inundated with vagrants and riff raff bringing their gangsta from economically impoverished areas.
North Carolina and Virginia major cities, accurate as of 2/28:
Richmond 14/6.36
Durham 6/2.33
Newport News 4/2.19
Greensboro 6/2.11
Charlotte 16/1.93
Norfolk 4/1.63
Virginia Beach 2/0.44
Raleigh 1/0.22
Both Richmond and Charlotte had five murders in February. Both cities are on course to have a higher murder rate than last year. This is especially troubling for Charlotte, which has saw its murder rate shoot up since a record low 2014, and this year looks to be no different...
Through two months, Norfolk is tracking way down (46 last year), as is Newport News (31 last year). It would appear that Hampton Roads as a whole experienced a two-year anomaly in 2015-16, and is on its way back to normalizing, because the trends are also true of the smaller locales...
Both Durham and Greensboro are trending downwards. And there's no surprise with Raleigh and Virginia Beach. Just for reference, here's what all of these cities posted last year:
Richmond 66/30.00
Norfolk 46/18.70
Durham 44/17.05
Newport News 31/16.94
Greensboro 39/13.68
Charlotte 67/8.10
Raleigh 22/4.88
Virginia Beach 21/4.64
Richmond has been pretty high lately; I hope it doesn't revert back to the 90's/early 2000's numbers. I have noticed that the worst murder rates in VA are normally Richmond, Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, and Newport News. Do you have the stats for Petersburg and Portsmouth so far also?
St. Louis 31/9.82
New Orleans 38/9.75
Birmingham 19/8.94
Baltimore 55/8.85
Buffalo 15/5.79
Memphis 33/5.03
Kansas City 22/4.63
Chicago 108/3.97
Des Moines 8/3.80
Philadelphia 54/3.45
Atlanta 15/3.23
Washington 18/2.68
Oakland 11/2.62
Indianapolis 21/2.47
Los Angeles 41/1.03
Chicago has already tried to emulate New York. It didn't work. Chicago's superintendent before Johnson was McCarthy, and he was former NYPD. His tenure ended with Rahm firing him. Chicago used stop and frisk at a higher rate than NYC did, but like the article alluded to, all it did was damage community relations. Chicago and the feds also dropped the hammer on gang leadership, but all that did was splinter the gangs. Now they fight over street corners and shoot each other over social media insults. Homicides have increased.
It might be time for Chicago to come up with its own solution because imitating NYC has not worked thus far.
Richmond has been pretty high lately; I hope it doesn't revert back to the 90's/early 2000's numbers. I have noticed that the worst murder rates in VA are normally Richmond, Norfolk, Petersburg, Portsmouth, and Newport News. Do you have the stats for Petersburg and Portsmouth so far also?
So far this year, Portsmouth is at 4/4.17, Petersburg at 1/3.03. That puts Portsmouth on track right now for around roughly 22 murders, which would blow by last year's 13, but still not as high as the 28 in '15. Petersburg, conversely, is down and only on track for about 6 this year, way down from the record 17 in 2015 and the 13 last year...
From 2010-2015, using FBI UCR figures, the most violent cities in Virginia by murder rate:
This has been the most violent decade in the modern history of the Tri-Cities. I'm not sure why, but around the late-00s the murder and violent crime rates began to rise in Hopewell and Petersburg and has steadily gone higher this decade. I went to school there and while there was always some noticeable crime, it wasn't how it is now. Since I returned to the area in January '16, I've gotten to see it myself. One of the oddities of crime...
Obviously Richmond's rate has started heading back upwards as well. I'd bet everything there will never be a return to the 1967-2007 Richmond, when the murder rate only seldomly dipped below 30 per 100k and there were many, many years with 40/50/60/70 per 100k rates. Those days aren't returning...and yet there does seem to be an obvious disinvestment and/or lack of ability to maintain the handle on crime that Rodney Monroe started. Especially in South Richmond. The Southside accounts for about 50% of all the murders here. To me, there obviously has to be a larger focus of resources on South Richmond. Those resources from 2005-early 10s were applied to the hellzones in the East End and Downtown areas--Church Hill, Jackson Ward, Carver, Gilpin, Mosby, Fairfield, etc. It's the Southside's turn. It can seem borderline lawless in certain parts of the Southside...
Danville stands out as really the only city in Virginia not in the 804 or 757 that consistently has a murder rate higher than 10/100. They had a record 15 murders last year (35.71 rate). Not really familiar with Danville, but the leadership of that city seems to really be struggling with the rising violent crime rate...
Chicago has already tried to emulate New York. It didn't work. Chicago's superintendent before Johnson was McCarthy, and he was former NYPD. His tenure ended with Rahm firing him. Chicago used stop and frisk at a higher rate than NYC did, but like the article alluded to, all it did was damage community relations. Chicago and the feds also dropped the hammer on gang leadership, but all that did was splinter the gangs. Now they fight over street corners and shoot each other over social media insults. Homicides have increased.
It might be time for Chicago to come up with its own solution because imitating NYC has not worked thus far.
You make some excellent points. Baltimore tried to emulate New York several years ago and it didn't work. Every city isn't New York. I don't know what is going to work for Chicago and Baltimore but I hope they figure it out soon.
St. Louis 31/9.82
New Orleans 38/9.75
Birmingham 19/8.94
Baltimore 55/8.85
Buffalo 15/5.79
Memphis 33/5.03 Detroit 32/4.75
Kansas City 22/4.63
Chicago 108/3.97
Des Moines 8/3.80
Philadelphia 54/3.45
Atlanta 15/3.23
Washington 18/2.68
Oakland 11/2.62
Indianapolis 21/2.47
Los Angeles 41/1.03
This time last year Detroit was at 46.
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