Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
I really think either Philadelphia or Cincinnati have the ability to BOOM in the 2020's. Pittsburgh? Not so much. We'll just become yet another yuppie liberal elitist-dominated city by 2030 that's about the same size as it was in 2010 (slow decline through the 2010's/slow growth through the 2020's). The STARK contrast right now between the progressive Allegheny County and the DEEP RED conservative surrounding counties in the MSA (that helped flip PA to Trump in 2016) seems to be worsening and will likely continue to worsen through the 2020's.
I find the political shift in our Commonwealth as fascinating as the economic one.
When I moved to Philadelphia in 1983, the political dynamics of Pennsylvania worked out something like this:
The Democrat racked up a huge margin in the city of Philadelphia, which its four suburban counties canceled out. The winner of the statewide election hinged on whether the blue-collar Democrats in Southwestern Pennsylvania or the conservative rural folk in the T showed up in greater numbers.
That script's flipped somewhat now. Allegheny County is now a blue island in a sea of red as the demise of the steel industry has transformed the counties surrounding Pittsburgh's into the Land of the Forgotten, and all those blue-collar Democrats have become Trumpified.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia's collar counties in the Southeast - the most affluent region of the Commonwealth - have gone from red to purple, and as of the election just concluded, they've turned completely blue for the first time in modern memory. All five of the Pennsylvania counties in the Greater Philadelphia region are now run by Democrats.
Going back to the main topic of this thread, I think this political shift could portend an economic one: with Philadelphia finally posting solid job gains in the years since 2010 and the rest of the region doing no worse on that front, Philly and the Southeast could join the ranks of the Northeast's superstar regions by 2030.
We could see an election in which the Democrat racks up a big margin in Pittsburgh that's canceled out by the rest of Southwestern Pennsylvania, and the election will hinge over whether more voters show up in the Southeast or the T. If that's the case, I'd like the Democrat's odds, for Southeastern Pennsylvania is also the most populous region of the state.
Since I moved here in 2010 the city has noticeably gentrified. While its population has declined slightly the demographic make-up of the city has changed. We are younger, better-educated, and more affluent. The city is continuing to shift from blue-collar to white-collar. Violent crime is down dramatically (we're only at 33 homicides so far this year, which is only a bit over half of normal, while the number of homicides in the suburbs seems to be growing). It seems like we've lost a small percentage of poorer African-Americans (to the suburbs or out of the MSA altogether) with their loss being offset by an influx of wealthier Asian-Americans (especially thanks to Carnegie Mellon University, University of Pittsburgh, and UPMC). I guess my definition of "wealthy" may be skewed, but when I was an undergrad I couldn't afford a new BMW or regularly order Postmates the way many of these CMU Asian-American undergrads seem to.
I really don't foresee Pittsburgh "taking off" in the 2020's. I think we'll continue an inversion of sorts with the city proper housing fewer but younger/wealthier residents while the inner suburbs take in the poor that are being displaced. We're just going to continue "shuffling" through the 2020's with this inversion. Google, Apple, Facebook, UBER ATI, Ford Argo, Microsoft, Intel, Amazon, the National Robotics Engineering Center, and others have all GREATLY expanded their presences here since 2010 (thanks, again, to CMU and Pitt). I guess on that front Pittsburgh makes sense. Why try to lure someone to San Jose where they'll have less purchasing power on a $150,000 salary in tech vs. paying them $100,000 in Pittsburgh where they can have a better quality-of-life? I personally make less money in Pittsburgh than I did in DC, but I'm happier here overall because I have more purchasing power.
I really think either Philadelphia or Cincinnati have the ability to BOOM in the 2020's. Pittsburgh? Not so much. We'll just become yet another yuppie liberal elitist-dominated city by 2030 that's about the same size as it was in 2010 (slow decline through the 2010's/slow growth through the 2020's). The STARK contrast right now between the progressive Allegheny County and the DEEP RED conservative surrounding counties in the MSA (that helped flip PA to Trump in 2016) seems to be worsening and will likely continue to worsen through the 2020's.
That inversion at some point could still generate population growth if people actually stay and have families. Certainly there's enough room in Pittsburgh and Allegheny County to construct far more housing units that there are now even if the average household size goes down. Also, isn't a lot of the explanation given for Pittsburgh's odd continuation of population loss over the last couple decades, despite its purported comeback and shift towards various tech industries, due to what was an idiosyncratic demographic profile for an urban city where there was a very large elderly component that had Pittsburgh registering a higher-than-average percentage of natural deaths? I assume that trend has to stop fairly soon since it's not like there are tons of elderly moving to Pittsburgh from elsewhere for retirement.
The CMU Asian kids with the money for a new BMW or regularly order Postmates are often people from abroad (though perhaps they went to a US boarding school at some point) from families that can pay big bucks and not Asian-American kids who are born and raised in the US. They're also pretty likely to move out, sometimes out of the country altogether, after getting their degrees. It's not too bad of a deal for Pittsburgh since full tuition plus living expenses is essentially four years or more of directly putting something like a minimum of 80K into mostly the local economy each year every year. Hopefully it'll also lead to endowments to the school and gifts to city institutions as they progress in their careers. I do wonder how sustainable that is though as the US's reputation abroad has arguably diminished.
As for being deep red, the red's not that deep. The 2018 midterms had Beaver County turn around to support Bob Casey and it was a pretty close result in Washington and Fayette Counties.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 11-24-2019 at 12:07 PM..
I find the political shift in our Commonwealth as fascinating as the economic one.
When I moved to Philadelphia in 1983, the political dynamics of Pennsylvania worked out something like this:
The Democrat racked up a huge margin in the city of Philadelphia, which its four suburban counties canceled out. The winner of the statewide election hinged on whether the blue-collar Democrats in Southwestern Pennsylvania or the conservative rural folk in the T showed up in greater numbers.
That script's flipped somewhat now. Allegheny County is now a blue island in a sea of red as the demise of the steel industry has transformed the counties surrounding Pittsburgh's into the Land of the Forgotten, and all those blue-collar Democrats have become Trumpified.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia's collar counties in the Southeast - the most affluent region of the Commonwealth - have gone from red to purple, and as of the election just concluded, they've turned completely blue for the first time in modern memory. All five of the Pennsylvania counties in the Greater Philadelphia region are now run by Democrats.
Going back to the main topic of this thread, I think this political shift could portend an economic one: with Philadelphia finally posting solid job gains in the years since 2010 and the rest of the region doing no worse on that front, Philly and the Southeast could join the ranks of the Northeast's superstar regions by 2030.
We could see an election in which the Democrat racks up a big margin in Pittsburgh that's canceled out by the rest of Southwestern Pennsylvania, and the election will hinge over whether more voters show up in the Southeast or the T. If that's the case, I'd like the Democrat's odds, for Southeastern Pennsylvania is also the most populous region of the state.
Also notate the red "T" is dissolving. Dauphin County has voted blue since 2008. Cumberland County voted double digits for Tom Wolf last election and Centre County has always been blue, due to Penn State.
Lancaster County is even becoming less conservative, as it is attractive a new creative educated class/economy.
I think the hinge is the Northeast, where the once conservative but blue counties of the Scranton/Wilkes Barre region have slowly become purple since 2012.
Tampa Bay- with the 13 billion dollar water street project in downtown Tampa which recently broke ground. This will bring in a medical school and another 13 high rises buildings in phase 1 alone, completely transforming downtown. Merry that with the artsy St Pete area which is gentrifying rapidly and the twin cities are posed to explode. If these cities can continue to distance themselves from tourism while continuing to attract corporate banking/insurance jobs, they will certainly done well in the 2020s
Location: That star on your map in the middle of the East Coast, DMV
8,128 posts, read 7,552,695 times
Reputation: 5785
Quote:
Originally Posted by 02blackgt
Tampa Bay- with the 13 billion dollar water street project in downtown Tampa which recently broke ground. This will bring in a medical school and another 13 high rises buildings in phase 1 alone, completely transforming downtown. Merry that with the artsy St Pete area which is gentrifying rapidly and the twin cities are posed to explode. If these cities can continue to distance themselves from tourism while continuing to attract corporate banking/insurance jobs, they will certainly done well in the 2020s
Do you have a link to this? I haven't been to Tampa in 10 years back when I lived in Orlando, would be nice to see.
The way things are looking, both Orlando and Tampa re going to look completely different within the next 10 years. Orlando's already begun to expand its downtown West of I4 almost all the way down to OBT with the new Creative Village. The infill these past few years has been nothing short of impressive.
The way things are looking, both Orlando and Tampa re going to look completely different within the next 10 years. Orlando's already begun to expand its downtown West of I4 almost all the way down to OBT with the new Creative Village. The infill these past few years has been nothing short of impressive.
Oh yes, the good ole Orange Blossom Trail, I remember it well. Next time I come that way I'm sure it will seem completely different as things were booming even when I left 10 years back. I know there are new stadiums etc, but have yet to see how big downtown Orlando has expanded.
Thanks. The link looks good, hopefully that will liven up Tampa's downtown into mixed use activity.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
