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Yeah, while some people are doing that for well-considered reasons, a lot of people just aren't bright. And of course our collective heads are in the sand so to speak.
Net domestic migration is only one component of population; Pennsylvania, specifically, is still growing in population (albeit slowly) due to international migration bringing that overall number to a net positive (along with births).
The allure of warm weather and cheap housing of course has long driven Northerners south, for decades. Regardless, I think we'll see a tipping point sooner rather than later, where cost-of-living, climate, infrastructure (likely a combination of the three) put a significant damper on that trend.
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
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The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 limiting SALT write offs has only increased this trend, with Florida (including Miami) being a big beneficiary. A new law, only hypothetical at this stage, could change that.
Net domestic migration is only one component of population; Pennsylvania, specifically, is still growing in population (albeit slowly) due to international migration bringing that overall number to a net positive (along with births).
The allure of warm weather and cheap housing of course has long driven Northerners south, for decades. Regardless, I think we'll see a tipping point sooner rather than later, where cost-of-living, climate, infrastructure (likely a combination of the three) put a significant damper on that trend.
It's only a matter of time.
Last edited by elchevere; 12-08-2019 at 02:30 PM..
Not sure how the Philly real estate market has fared.
The thing that I think best explains Philly is that it's not a meteor.
Those rise fast and give off a great light show, then they burn out and fall to earth - either burning up as they enter the atmosphere or hitting the earth as a piece of burnt rock.
Philadelphia has a slow-growth economy and has had one since it deindustrialized. Some of that could be ascribed to a culture not given to boastfulness or showiness, and some of it to missing opportunities dropped in its lap (e.g., electronic computing, which was invented in Philadelphia but developed in Boston before going small in California and Florida (the unit that developed IBM's Personal Computer was deliberately located away from the rest of the company, in Boca Raton) and taking off again from there.
The downside of having a slow-growth economy is that in the good times, the party is subdued. The advantage is that when things go south, there's much less carnage. During the housing bubble bust, the decline here was shorter and shallower, and prices recovered sooner, than they did in the hotter markets. Some people here refer to the area as having a "Goldilocks economy" - not too hot, not too cold, but just right.
Philadelphia's real estate market began to recover from the housing bust in 2012 but has really taken off in the last two to three years. House prices reached pre-Great Recession levels sometime in 2016, and the market has remained strong since then, with inventory reaching all-time lows earlier this year and days on market likewise plummeting. The suburban market is not as hot, but prices have also passed pre-recession levels.
To address the points you and I have respectively made about affordability: the Pew Philadelphia Research Project released a study a few months ago that examined population flows between New York and Philadelphia broken down by borough of New York City. As you may or may not know, more people move between those two cities than between any other pair of cities in the country - and for the last two decades, the flow of migrants has been net towards Philadelphia.
But when you break it down by borough, you note something. There's not all that much migration between Philadelphia and Staten Island or the Bronx, and a little more than that with Queens. In all cases, the migration is net towards Philly. The largest flow of migrants to Philly, however, comes from Brooklyn, which accounts for all the net flow towards Philadelphia.
The net flow between Philadelphia and Manhattan is towards Manhattan.
This makes sense: If you want that level of urban amenities, no other place in the country comes close to Manhattan, not even Chicago's Gold Coast or Rittenhouse Square, and if you can figure out how to afford it (or make enough that you can already), then you will move there. But Brooklynites are paying about two to three times what they would pay in Philadelphia for amenities and quality of life no better than what they would get here. Given that, why not move?
In the words of one Brooklyn transplant quoted in an interview we ran earlier this year, "It's like 80 percent of New York at 20 percent of the cost!"
That Pew study got a lot of press up this way; interesting that you found it in a repost of a WHYY (Philly's NPR news and information station) story posted on the website of the oldest African-American newspaper still publishing in the United States.
But something you might want to note about those who leave it: It's generally not because they don't like it:
Quote:
Most people who leave Philadelphia still like it. About 7 in 10 movers described the city as a “good or excellent place to live.” Non-Philly natives were more likely to leave town with fond feelings for the city. By contrast, half of native Philadelphians did not give the city high marks as they departed.
Though this also points to something I often describe with the phrase, "Philadelphia is underrated, and nobody underrates it more than the locals."
Location: Miami (prev. NY, Atlanta, SF, OC and San Diego)
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I figured a Philly source might have more credibility than a FL source on that matter...looks like some of those who also move from the city do so to move to the Philly suburbs.
I’ve heard the Brooklyn comparison previously (though 20% of the Cost sounds like an exaggeration.)
Curious what a nice, newer 2BR 2BA condo (10-15 years old or less) runs in Rittenhouse Sq area.
Like the fact, like Miami, Philly is a hub airport for American (though looks like more direct European options from Philly whereas more Latin/South America options from Miami—which makes sense). How far is Airport from Rittenhouse—time wise??
I figured a Philly source might have more credibility than a FL source on that matter...looks like some of those who also move from the city do so to move to the Philly suburbs.
I’ve heard the Brooklyn comparison previously (though 20% of the Cost sounds like an exaggeration.)
Curious what a nice, newer 2BR 2BA condo (10-15 years old or less) runs in Rittenhouse Sq area.
Like the fact, like Miami, Philly is a hub airport for American (though looks like more direct European options from Philly whereas more Latin/South America options from Miami—which makes sense). How far is Airport from Rittenhouse—time wise??
Driving, Rittenhouse to the airport is going to be anywhere from ten minutes to half an hour depending on what time of day you leave (traffic). On the train, it is close to half an hour to forty-five minutes (walking to the station from Rittenhouse).
For something that fits that bill of new and 2br 2ba +, you are looking at anywhere from 700k to nearly 1M. Nearby Graduate Hospital, however, you can get something closer to 250 or 300k, though.
Last edited by Muinteoir; 12-08-2019 at 05:22 PM..
Driving, Rittenhouse to the airport is going to be anywhere from ten minutes to half an hour depending on what time of day you leave (traffic). On the train, it is close to half an hour to forty-five minutes (walking to the station from Rittenhouse).
For something that fits that bill of new and 2br 2ba +, you are looking at anywhere from 700k to nearly 1M. Nearby Graduate Hospital, however, you can get something closer to 250 or 300k, though.
The train trip itself from Suburban Station takes 22 to 27 minutes, depending on which airport terminal you're headed to (the train makes four stops at the airport). So the real variance comes from where in Rittenhouse your walk begins.
The train trip itself from Suburban Station takes 22 to 27 minutes, depending on which airport terminal you're headed to (the train makes four stops at the airport). So the real variance comes from where in Rittenhouse your walk begins.
The train also only runs every 30 minutes which is kind of annoying. I used to walk from 30th Street Station to a block before Rittenhouse all the time. It’s only 15 minutes. From there to the Death Star and Suburban Station underneath is similar walk time. Rittenhouse is maybe 12 minutes walk to Suburban Station.
From the airport with a morning business meeting, I almost always took a taxi. If you had to wait 25 minutes for a train, you’d miss your meeting.
The Miami metro has had almost 5 times the population growth of the Philadelphia metro since 2010. I wouldn't be surprised if that number was even higher in the past couple of years.
Is that a statement supporting a stance or just a statement?
Last edited by CleverOne; 12-08-2019 at 06:52 PM..
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