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St. Louis had 8 homicides in the first 3 days of the new year. If you subtract that from the current total (16), then you're left with 8 homicides after the first 3 days of the year in St. Louis. At a population of 302,838 people, that's a rate of 2.64 per 100K. Chicago with 52 homicides and a population of 2,705,994 has a rate of 1.92 per 100K. That's still above Chicago's rate even if you remove half of its homicides this year (the first 3 days of the year).
If you substract all chicago homicide, it will have a rate around 0/100k...
Those 8 homicides did occurs so no removing them, even if al were the first hour
If you substract all chicago homicide, it will have a rate around 0/100k...
Those 8 homicides did occurs so no removing them, even if al were the first hour
I was going to post something like you just did, but no use anyway. The math in the post I was replying to was just wrong. I'm not even sure how a population figure that hasn't been a reality for 110 years is even used in a calculation. Even if you don't know that, literally googling "Chicago population" gives you a straight up number at the top of the results page (2.716 million). If you're going to post some stuff with numbers, at least get the components of the calculation correct - especially when they take 5 seconds to Google.
If you substract all chicago homicide, it will have a rate around 0/100k...
Those 8 homicides did occurs so no removing them, even if al were the first hour
You missed the point. St. Louis has actually been remarkably safe since January 4th. I'm not talking about the murder rate, but am rather making a qualitative argument. It's a good thing, and indeed a noteworthy thing, that things have calmed down considerably. The same is true of Philly's February. These are good, commendable changes.
Chicago, on the other hand, has gotten worse, which is a real shame and even more embarrassing in light of the fact that other cities apparently getting better.
Chicago, on the other hand, has gotten worse, which is a real shame and even more embarrassing in light of the fact that other cities apparently getting better.
You missed the point. St. Louis has actually been remarkably safe since January 4th. I'm not talking about the murder rate, but am rather making a qualitative argument. It's a good thing, and indeed a noteworthy thing, that things have calmed down considerably. The same is true of Philly's February. These are good, commendable changes.
Chicago, on the other hand, has gotten worse, which is a real shame and even more embarrassing in light of the fact that other cities apparently getting better.
At the current pace, actually 2020 Chicago could still end in the low 400s, if not finally ending the year with historical lows in the 300s. But of course, this doesn't account for spring/summer.
That story is from a year ago. Obvuously 2019 was a better year for Chicago. Unfortunately, 2020 has not been so calm. Murders are up from a year ago by almost 40%.
At the current pace, actually 2020 Chicago could still end in the low 400s, if not finally ending the year with historical lows in the 300s. But of course, this doesn't account for spring/summer.
No, in fact, this January/February has been one of the most violent in the past several years. It is basically on pace with 2018 and the year will probably finish with at least 500 murders.
I feel like some of our Chicago friends have been asleep for the last six weeks. In 2019 there was a notable drop in murders. Everyone started popping champagne and then violence started to pop in the first several weeks of 2020. The mayor literally just held a press conference about the sharp hike in gun violence this year.
The spike so far this year in Chicago most likely has to do with the fact that the previous police superintendent got axed and replaced with an interim one. 2011 saw the hiring of a new superintendent and 2012 spiked, only to have 2013 and 2014 have the lowest homicide count there since the mid 1960s. In early 2016 a new superintendent was hired and there was a huge spike as well.
My money is on 2020 being a spike in Chicago and 2021 coming back to normal so long as someone is hired who isnt terrible. Nothing new to see a spike after police chief is fired. Hell, look at Philadelphia right now. Same situation.
I think the only way that subtracting 8 murders from a city's total in order to claim it's "safer" is if all or almost of those murders were in a single incident.
I've seen cities have 6 murders in a single incident with a single perpetrator, with only 1 other murder the entire year. I'd call that city pretty darn safe.
But unless there is a specific explanation for those 8 murders in 72 hours, and that murder has mostly disappeared as a crime phenom since then, I think it's a bit much to start making proclamations about a city's safety based on things "dropping" to 1-2 murders a week subsequent to that. That's still a lot of murders.
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