Coronavirus - Reported Cases by Metro (living, best, state, better)

[iLoveFashion]

Originally Posted by jessemh431

I'd bet that's because more of the outer boroughs are "essential employees" who are required to pack onto subways still and go to their "essential jobs." The Manhattanites are going to be more white collar employees who are working from home as lawyers or in tech or finance or something.

Yes but this exact reason shows that it’s way more complicated than density.


Also I think the proper calculation of this virus should be done by metro area since the suburbs are attached to the city. With that being said the LA Metro is more dense than NYC metro and has no where near as much deaths and a much lower rate.


I’m not downplaying density but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to just say well “NYC is a dense city that’s why” when other dense cities like LA and SF have lower rates of the virus than cities that are no where near as dense.

[jessemh431]

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

Yes but this exact reason shows that it’s way more complicated than density.


Also I think the proper calculation of this virus should be done by metro area since the suburbs are attached to the city. With that being said the LA Metro is more dense than NYC metro and has no where near as much deaths and a much lower rate.


I’m not downplaying density but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to just say well “NYC is a dense city that’s why” when other dense cities like LA and SF have lower rates of the virus than cities that are no where near as dense.

Oh absolutely. Just saying that's the reason that the outer boroughs are worse off than denser Manhattan.

[Shakeesha]

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

Yes but this exact reason shows that it’s way more complicated than density.


Also I think the proper calculation of this virus should be done by metro area since the suburbs are attached to the city. With that being said the LA Metro is more dense than NYC metro and has no where near as much deaths and a much lower rate.


I’m not downplaying density but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to just say well “NYC is a dense city that’s why” when other dense cities like LA and SF have lower rates of the virus than cities that are no where near as dense.

Facts!

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

Yes but this exact reason shows that it’s way more complicated than density.


Also I think the proper calculation of this virus should be done by metro area since the suburbs are attached to the city. With that being said the LA Metro is more dense than NYC metro and has no where near as much deaths and a much lower rate.


I’m not downplaying density but I think it’s a dangerous assumption to just say well “NYC is a dense city that’s why” when other dense cities like LA and SF have lower rates of the virus than cities that are no where near as dense.

I think density is certainly the reason why NYC has the highest numbers. It's not only the high peak densities in NYC, but also the corresponding characteristics of very high density cities, including significantly higher transit use, more elevator usage and more sharing of common spaces in both office and residential buildings.

As to why Manhattan is lower than the outerboroughs, that's anyone's guess, but I find it interesting that the highest rate of infection is in the borough with the longest median commute time (Staten Island). In fact, if you rank each borough by both commute time and infection rate, the order is exactly the same--the borough with the lowest infection rate (Manhattan) has a significantly shorter median commute than the borough with the longest. So one hypothesis could be that the more time you spend on a cramped subway car (or bus or ferry), the greater the likelihood of infection.

Not sure that metro density is that relevant here. LA is denser than NYC on a metro level, but the NYC metro has 3 times the number of transit riders as the entire state of California. You are more likely to contract a respiratory disease in a crowded subway car than you are in a relatively densely populated neighborhood of single-family homes.

[Trafalgar Law]

COVID-19 related deaths by MSA, as of today:

001. New York MSA: 15,087
002. Detroit MSA: 1,628
003. Chicago MSA: 928
004. New Orleans MSA: 723
005. Boston MSA: 721
006. Philadelphia MSA: 647
007. Los Angeles MSA: 425
008. Miami/Fort Lauderdale MSA: 373
009. Seattle MSA: 354
010. Indianapolis MSA: 282
011. Atlanta MSA: 261
012. Washington D.C. MSA: 227
013. Denver MSA: 191
014. Springfield (Massachusetts) MSA: 159
015. Baton Rouge MSA: 140
016. Baltimore MSA: 130
017. Saint Louis MSA: 130
018. Milwaukee MSA: 126
019. Buffalo MSA: 123
020. Las Vegas MSA: 120
021. Dallas/Fort Worth MSA: 116
022. Albany (Georgia) MSA: 112
023. Worcester (Massachusetts) MSA: 101
024. Houston MSA: 95
025. Allentown (Pennsylvania) MSA: 91
026. Riverside/San Bernardino MSA: 90
027. Flint (Michigan) MSA: 89
028. Pittsburgh MSA: 81
029. Shreveport (Louisiana) MSA: 78
030. Providence MSA: 76
031. Louisville MSA: 73
032. Cleveland MSA: 71
033. Minneapolis/Saint Paul MSA: 71
034. Kansas City MSA: 70
035. Phoenix MSA: 69
036. Nashville MSA: 65
037. San Jose MSA: 61
038. San Diego MSA: 60
039. Cincinnati MSA: 59
040. Richmond MSA: 58
041. Greeley (Colorado) MSA: 56
042. Youngstown (Ohio) MSA: 55
043. Albany (New York) MSA: 53
044. Rochester MSA: 52
045. Portland MSA: 48
046. Oklahoma City MSA: 47
047. San Antonio MSA: 46
048. Charlotte MSA: 43
049. Sacramento MSA: 43
050. Colorado Springs MSA: 42
051. Tulsa MSA: 42
052. Akron (Ohio) MSA: 40
053. Memphis MSA: 40
054. Lafayette (Louisiana) MSA: 39
055. Tampa MSA: 37
056. Tucson MSA: 37
057. Columbus (Ohio) MSA: 35
058. North Port/Sarasota MSA: 35
059. Kennewick-Richland (Washington) MSA: 33
060. Toledo (Ohio) MSA: 33
061. Reading (Pennsylvania) MSA: 31
062. Orlando MSA: 29
063. Yakima (Washington) MSA: 29
064. Birmingham MSA: 27
065. Flagstaff (Arizona) MSA: 26
066. Jacksonville MSA: 26
067. Lubbock (Texas) MSA: 26
068. Ann Arbor (Michigan) MSA: 24
069. Bellingham (Washington) MSA: 24
070. Burlington (Vermont) MSA: 24
071. Austin MSA: 23
072. Cedar Rapids (Iowa) MSA: 23
073. Albuquerque MSA: 21
074. Canton (Ohio) MSA: 21
075. Manchester (New Hampshire) MSA: 21
076. Mobile MSA: 21
077. Grand Rapids MSA: 20
078. Portland (Maine) MSA: 18
079. Salisbury (Maryland) MSA: 18
080. Spokane MSA: 18
081. Virginia Beach/Norfolk MSA: 18
082. Madison (Wisconsin) MSA: 16
083. Fort Wayne (Indiana) MSA: 17
084. Greenville (South Carolina) MSA: 17
085. Syracuse (New York) MSA: 18
086. Americus (Georgia) MSA: 15
087. Lake Charles (Louisiana) MSA: 15
088. Raleigh MSA: 15
089. Reno MSA: 15
090. Stockton (California) MSA: 15
091. Visalia (California) MSA: 15
092. Athens (Georgia) MSA: 14
093. Boise MSA: 14
094. Chattanooga MSA: 14
095. Greensboro (North Carolina) MSA: 14
096. Atlantic City MSA: 13
097. College Station (Texas) MSA: 13
098. Hudson (New York) MSA: 13
099. Little Rock MSA: 13
100. Meridian (Mississippi) MSA: 13
101. Monroe (Louisiana) MSA: 13
102. Oxnard (California) MSA: 13
103. Harrisburg (Pennsylvania) MSA: 12
104. Kankakee (Illinois) MSA: 12
105. Warner Robbins (Georgia) MSA: 12
106. Asheville (North Carolina) MSA: 11
107. Des Moines MSA: 11
108. Jackson (Mississippi) MSA: 11
109. Show Low (Arizona) MSA: 11
110. The Villages (Florida) MSA: 11
111. Greenville (Ohio) MSA: 10
112. Omaha MSA: 10
113. Winston-Salem (North Carolina) MSA: 10
114. Knoxville MSA: 9
115. Beaumont (Texas) MSA: 8
116. Homosassa Springs (Florida) MSA: 8
117. Savannah (Georgia) MSA: 8
118. Springfield (Missouri) MSA: 8
119. Fresno MSA: 7
120. Lexington (Kentucky) MSA: 7
121. Salt Lake City MSA: 7
122. Waycross (Georgia) MSA: 7
123. Charleston (South Carolina) MSA: 6
124. Davenport/Moline (Iowa-Illinois) MSA: 6
125. El Paso MSA: 6
126. Honolulu MSA: 6
127. Nacodoches (Texas) MSA: 6
128. Palm Bay/Melbourne (Florida) MSA: 6
129. Amarillo (Texas) MSA: 5
130. Anchorage (Alaska) MSA: 5
131. Corning (New York) MSA: 5
132. Texarkana (Texas-Arkansas) MSA: 5
133. Thomaston (Georgia) MSA: 5
134. Huntsville (Alabama) MSA: 4
135. Killeen/Temple (Texas) MSA: 4
136. Waco (Texas) MSA: 4
137. Bakersfield MSA: 3
138. Brownsville (Texas) MSA: 3
139. McAllen (Texas) MSA: 2
140. Corpus Christi (Texas) MSA: 0
141. Fayetteville (Arkansas) MSA: 0

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...a-tracker.html

[iLoveFashion]

Originally Posted by BajanYankee

I think density is certainly the reason why NYC has the highest numbers. It's not only the high peak densities in NYC, but also the corresponding characteristics of very high density cities, including significantly higher transit use, more elevator usage and more sharing of common spaces in both office and residential buildings.

As to why Manhattan is lower than the outerboroughs, that's anyone's guess, but I find it interesting that the highest rate of infection is in the borough with the longest median commute time (Staten Island). In fact, if you rank each borough by both commute time and infection rate, the order is exactly the same--the borough with the lowest infection rate (Manhattan) has a significantly shorter median commute than the borough with the longest. So one hypothesis could be that the more time you spend on a cramped subway car (or bus or ferry), the greater the likelihood of infection.

Not sure that metro density is that relevant here. LA is denser than NYC on a metro level, but the NYC metro has 3 times the number of transit riders as the entire state of California. You are more likely to contract a respiratory disease in a crowded subway car than you are in a relatively densely populated neighborhood of single-family homes.

Density is the reason but there is barely any difference between me being in a subway vs me being in a crowded church on Sunday (which is common all over the country) or crowded Venice Beach in LA. The subway is not crowded like sardines 24/7 either.

So it’s more about being in a dense location rather just flat out density because if that were true then New Orleans and Louisiana would not be “hotter” spots than LA, Bay Area California.


The reason why Manhattans rate is lower pretty much confirms this. Also if you look at the history of virus epidemics not all of them actually targeted cities.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

Density is the reason but there is barely any difference between me being in a subway vs me being in a crowded church on Sunday (which is common all over the country) or crowded Venice Beach in LA. The subway is not crowded like sardines 24/7 either.

So it’s more about being in a dense location rather just flat out density because if that were true then New Orleans and Louisiana would not be “hotter” spots than LA, Bay Area California.


The reason why Manhattans rate is lower pretty much confirms this. Also if you look at the history of virus epidemics not all of them actually targeted cities.

New Orleans became a hot spot because of Marti Gras and people from all over the country cramming the bars on one street. That is a form of density albeit temporary density.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

Density is the reason but there is barely any difference between me being in a subway vs me being in a crowded church on Sunday (which is common all over the country) or crowded Venice Beach in LA. The subway is not crowded like sardines 24/7 either.

There is a huge difference. Hundreds of thousands of people are crossing paths through Penn Station every day. There is more opportunity for infection here. New Yorkers do all the regular things people do everywhere else (i.e., attend religious services), but then you add more risk to the equation by having a lifestyle that is significantly more communal than in any other U.S. city.

Originally Posted by iLoveFashion

The reason why Manhattans rate is lower pretty much confirms this. Also if you look at the history of virus epidemics not all of them actually targeted cities.

Manhattan has a lower rate of infection among the boroughs. You are making this argument that there is this 1-to-1 correlation between population density and CV cases. I'm saying that density is the main reason why NYC is so ridiculously high compared to everywhere else and saying that Manhattan is the lowest among all boroughs does nothing to disprove that. Manhattan is still significantly worse off than anywhere else. There could be other reasons why some of the outerboroughs are worse off (longer commutes, poorer populations that can't shelter in place for 2 weeks, etc.), but I don't see how anyone can deny that density is the major culprit here.

[BajanYankee]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

New Orleans became a hot spot because of Marti Gras and people from all over the country cramming the bars on one street. That is a form of density albeit temporary density.

It will take some time to figure out why some places were harder hit than others. But suffice it to say that one infected person in a large crowd of people can create an epidemic. One infected person in a subway car could probably give CV to 10 people on their morning commute, and then those 10 people ride on another subway car during their evening commute and give it to 10 people, and then those 1,000 people ride on a subway car on the following morning commute and give it to 10 other people, etc. And the odds of an infected person being on a subway car in NYC is way higher than it is for any other metro because transit share is way higher than it is in other metros.

[caliguy92832]

Here's an update as of April 20.

Cities hit hardest by the COVID-19 pandemic
New York, NY
New Orleans, LA
Detroit, MI
Boston, MA
Hartford, CT
Philadelphia, PA
Indianapolis, IN
Chicago, IL
Buffalo, NY
Providence, RI

Cities spared by the COVID-19 pandemic
Raleigh, NC
Tampa, FL
Phoenix, AZ
San Antonio, TX
Virginia Beach, VA
Sacramento, CA
Austin, TX
Portland, OR
Dallas, TX
Minneapolis, MN

If you notice, a lot of the best cities are in the sunbelt.